USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll

www.latimes.com ^ | Aug 01, 2016 | Staff

[Red Badger]

As of Jul. 31, 2016.....

Hillary Clinton 42.1% Donald Trump 46.2%

[Red Badger]

Details at link................

[Red Badger]

Ping!...................

[Dilbert San Diego]

Nice to see this poll.

I heard that Reuters, I think, and CBS also, have polls with Hillary ahead.

I think Reuters was the organization that changed the methodology of the polls, so that it could show Hillary in the lead???

[vladimir998]

That’s astounding.

[IronJack]

Add 5% to Trump’s numbers to correct for bias.

[HamiltonJay]

Not familiar with this poll, but I do assume Trump is up about 5 generally at this state of the race, and I am hard pressed, other than some sort of self inflicted wound, to see how Trump’s lead will not continue to slowly grow through November.

I fully expect Trump to finish with an 8-10 point lead, but unlike the 2008 finish Obama got with that lead, you will see a far, far larger EC difference, as Trump makes major inroads into deep blue segments of the country.

[canuck_conservative]

Like another poster said, manure doesn’t bounce.

[HamiltonJay]

Yes, MSM polling is going to prop up Clinton until the end...

To create the “bounce” they want to say she has they had to add a “neither” option to the answers.

I expect Trump is up about 5 (maybe more) nationally at the moment, and I am hard pressed to see a scenario, other than a self inflicted wound, where Trump doesn’t continue to grow his numbers from now through November, closing out at the low end with an 8-10 point win, possibly far larger.

The question is how low can Hillary remain as the election approaches... the more she’s seen, the lower she polls, if she is forced to be in front of the cameras for any reason whatsoever beyond the fluff sound bites, near election day, her loss will be far higher than the low end predictions I am making.

[MeganC]

No DNC bounce!!! LOL!!!

[Georgia Girl 2]

No convention bump for Hillary. :-)

[Dilbert San Diego]

I think Hillary could be vulnerable in the debates. She just doesn’t think on her feet, and will not be able to respond effectively to Trump as he raises points in the debate.

I know the debates are really joint press conferences, and that Trump could mention something and Hillary could ignore it. But depending what the issue is, the fact that Hillary didn’t respond to something Trump said would be glaringly obvious and hurt her for that reason.

[ConservativeWarrior]

“Add 5% to Trump’s numbers to correct for bias.”

____________________

Agree. But then subtract it again to account for vote fraud.

[Rennes Templar]

Without Trump, Hillary would be up ten points over Jeb.

[HombreSecreto]

You’ll get the admission that Trump is in great shape when you start seeing ads or hearing Democrats start touting about voting “a straight Democrat ticket.” They will know Hillary is toxic but try the final trick to get Democrats to vote for her.

[Dilbert San Diego]

This business with polling is so stupid. I can’t believe what we are hearing.

We are hearing that major news organizations have changed the methodology of how they compile their polls, and that they have done this to show Hillary is ahead.

Doesn’t manipulating the numbers defeat the whole purpose of polls in the first place?

You could produce a poll tomorrow that shows Hillary ahead 90% to 10%, if it’s done based on bad data. It would be absurd, but the media could produce such a poll.

The purpose of polling is not supposed to be to push certain candidates. But the liberals who run our media apparently can’t resist the idea.

[RoseofTexas]

Well according to the collusion CBS poll Hillary leads by 7points! I call this (C)omplete(B)ull(S)hit!!!

[skimbell]

"Yes, MSM polling is going to prop up Clinton until the end..."

Unless she really messes up or something really damning surfaces in one of these email dumps.

Then look out. The MSM, and maybe even the Democrat party will turn on her and rip her to shreds in an attempt to look impartial and try to resurrect some of their tattered credibility for future use.

[MeganC]

I think you’re being optimistic. If JEB! were the nominee he’d follow in the path of McCain and Romney and he’d be out there saying what a nice person Hillary is and how he can work with her and how people shouldn’t say nasty things about a white-collar serial killer.

Thank Jesus we have Donald Trump because I truly believe no one else would be standing up against the Democrats...even Ted Cruz.

[canuck_conservative]

Ah, but in this election there’s a new factor to consider.

Because Trump and his supporters are being demonized in a way that Romney, McCain, and even Bush never were - constantly portrayed as stupid, racist bigots, and neo-Nazis - many are naturally hesitant to reveal their true voting intentions.

This “hidden” Trump support could easily be another 5-10% that doesn’t show up in the polls - but will on Election Day.

[InterceptPoint]

I have been following this poll very carefully and I do believe it will be one of the most accurate polls coming November.

I've started to dig into the internals a bit and have found a couple items that should be of interest:

1. The polling population started out as 3000 randomly selected voters. That number currently stands at 3200 and is expected to grow to around 6000 by November.

2. Everyone in the population gets to vote once a week with 1/7 of them voting each day.

3. These votes are then “weighted” based on the known demographic makeup of the voting population and added to the previous 6 days votes and then averaged to get the daily poll.

4. The Poll Date that is shown on the Poll is not TODAY. It is YESTERDAY since that's when the most recent polling was done. So today's Poll is dated 7/31/2016.

5. Trump is leading in the poll but trailing by a significant margin in the poll of “Who Do You Expect To Win In November”. I'm assuming that will change with time but it is interesting.

6. The Polling Methodology described above can be found in detail at USC Poll Survey Methods and then clicking on the Survey Methods Tab.

7. Todays's results are highly favorable to Trump. At least for a day or two the "Hillary Bounce" has lost it's steam. But we have all this week to wait for all the post convention votes to be recorded. So a word of caution is advised.

8. Here are today's trend line which shows Trump holding his lead and the Hillary Bounce flattening out.: