[Red Badger]

Details at link................

[Red Badger]

Ping!...................

[Dilbert San Diego]

Nice to see this poll.

I heard that Reuters, I think, and CBS also, have polls with Hillary ahead.

I think Reuters was the organization that changed the methodology of the polls, so that it could show Hillary in the lead???

[vladimir998]

That’s astounding.

[IronJack]

Add 5% to Trump’s numbers to correct for bias.

[HamiltonJay]

Not familiar with this poll, but I do assume Trump is up about 5 generally at this state of the race, and I am hard pressed, other than some sort of self inflicted wound, to see how Trump’s lead will not continue to slowly grow through November.

I fully expect Trump to finish with an 8-10 point lead, but unlike the 2008 finish Obama got with that lead, you will see a far, far larger EC difference, as Trump makes major inroads into deep blue segments of the country.

[canuck_conservative]

Like another poster said, manure doesn’t bounce.

[MeganC]

No DNC bounce!!! LOL!!!

[Georgia Girl 2]

No convention bump for Hillary. :-)

[InterceptPoint]

I have been following this poll very carefully and I do believe it will be one of the most accurate polls coming November.

I've started to dig into the internals a bit and have found a couple items that should be of interest:

1. The polling population started out as 3000 randomly selected voters. That number currently stands at 3200 and is expected to grow to around 6000 by November.

2. Everyone in the population gets to vote once a week with 1/7 of them voting each day.

3. These votes are then “weighted” based on the known demographic makeup of the voting population and added to the previous 6 days votes and then averaged to get the daily poll.

4. The Poll Date that is shown on the Poll is not TODAY. It is YESTERDAY since that's when the most recent polling was done. So today's Poll is dated 7/31/2016.

5. Trump is leading in the poll but trailing by a significant margin in the poll of “Who Do You Expect To Win In November”. I'm assuming that will change with time but it is interesting.

6. The Polling Methodology described above can be found in detail at USC Poll Survey Methods and then clicking on the Survey Methods Tab.

7. Todays's results are highly favorable to Trump. At least for a day or two the "Hillary Bounce" has lost it's steam. But we have all this week to wait for all the post convention votes to be recorded. So a word of caution is advised.

8. Here are today's trend line which shows Trump holding his lead and the Hillary Bounce flattening out.:

[BigEdLB]

Change since yesterday. Trump +0.1, Beast +0.2. Background noise.

[Paradox]

This is a tracking poll, so it still contains data from before Hillary’s speech, which supposedly was good for her with some uncommitted. Therefore you might expect this to change more in her favor as we get to the results posted on Friday.

[LS]

I predict this will level at Trump +3.5. He has slipped a tad each day, but I think it’s just about bottomed out.

[techno]

People’s Pundit Daily:

Trump: 45.9 (-0.9)

Clinton: 43.1 (+0.9)

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