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Details at link................
1 posted on 08/01/2016 7:48:08 AM PDT by Red Badger
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Ping!...................


2 posted on 08/01/2016 7:49:07 AM PDT by Red Badger (Make America AMERICA again!.........................)
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To: Red Badger

Nice to see this poll.

I heard that Reuters, I think, and CBS also, have polls with Hillary ahead.

I think Reuters was the organization that changed the methodology of the polls, so that it could show Hillary in the lead???


3 posted on 08/01/2016 7:51:19 AM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: Red Badger

That’s astounding.


4 posted on 08/01/2016 7:52:33 AM PDT by vladimir998 (Apparently I'm still living in your head rent free. At least now it isn't empty.)
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To: Red Badger

Add 5% to Trump’s numbers to correct for bias.


5 posted on 08/01/2016 7:53:30 AM PDT by IronJack
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To: Red Badger

Not familiar with this poll, but I do assume Trump is up about 5 generally at this state of the race, and I am hard pressed, other than some sort of self inflicted wound, to see how Trump’s lead will not continue to slowly grow through November.

I fully expect Trump to finish with an 8-10 point lead, but unlike the 2008 finish Obama got with that lead, you will see a far, far larger EC difference, as Trump makes major inroads into deep blue segments of the country.


6 posted on 08/01/2016 7:53:30 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Red Badger

Like another poster said, manure doesn’t bounce.


7 posted on 08/01/2016 7:55:31 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: Red Badger

No DNC bounce!!! LOL!!!


9 posted on 08/01/2016 7:59:59 AM PDT by MeganC (JE SUIS CHARLES MARTEL!!!)
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To: Red Badger

No convention bump for Hillary. :-)


10 posted on 08/01/2016 8:00:22 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Red Badger
I have been following this poll very carefully and I do believe it will be one of the most accurate polls coming November.

I've started to dig into the internals a bit and have found a couple items that should be of interest:

1. The polling population started out as 3000 randomly selected voters. That number currently stands at 3200 and is expected to grow to around 6000 by November.

2. Everyone in the population gets to vote once a week with 1/7 of them voting each day.

3. These votes are then “weighted” based on the known demographic makeup of the voting population and added to the previous 6 days votes and then averaged to get the daily poll.

4. The Poll Date that is shown on the Poll is not TODAY. It is YESTERDAY since that's when the most recent polling was done. So today's Poll is dated 7/31/2016.

5. Trump is leading in the poll but trailing by a significant margin in the poll of “Who Do You Expect To Win In November”. I'm assuming that will change with time but it is interesting.

6. The Polling Methodology described above can be found in detail at USC Poll Survey Methods and then clicking on the Survey Methods Tab.

7. Todays's results are highly favorable to Trump. At least for a day or two the "Hillary Bounce" has lost it's steam. But we have all this week to wait for all the post convention votes to be recorded. So a word of caution is advised.

8. Here are today's trend line which shows Trump holding his lead and the Hillary Bounce flattening out.:


20 posted on 08/01/2016 8:15:56 AM PDT by InterceptPoint (Ted, you should have endorsed. Big mistake.)
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To: Red Badger

Change since yesterday. Trump +0.1, Beast +0.2. Background noise.


21 posted on 08/01/2016 8:16:51 AM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: Red Badger

This is a tracking poll, so it still contains data from before Hillary’s speech, which supposedly was good for her with some uncommitted. Therefore you might expect this to change more in her favor as we get to the results posted on Friday.


27 posted on 08/01/2016 8:32:55 AM PDT by Paradox (Opinions can evolve, but Principles should be immutable.)
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To: Red Badger

I predict this will level at Trump +3.5. He has slipped a tad each day, but I think it’s just about bottomed out.


36 posted on 08/01/2016 8:49:40 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Red Badger

People’s Pundit Daily:

Trump: 45.9 (-0.9)

Clinton: 43.1 (+0.9)



44 posted on 08/01/2016 9:17:30 AM PDT by techno
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