Posted on 04/07/2016 9:19:22 PM PDT by Leto
Donald Trump has 39 percent of the vote in our Pennsylvania polling average, 37 percent in California, and 39 percent in Maryland. If this were February or early March, that would leave him without much to worry about. Even if Trump picked up zero undecided voters, he’d be pretty much guaranteed a win with the rest of the vote divided between a half-dozen opponents.
But those days are over. In Wisconsin on Tuesday, Trump had 35 percent of the vote — the same share that allowed him to win New Hampshire easily in February, and a larger percentage than he got in winning South Carolina. But not only did Trump fail to win Wisconsin — he got crushed by Ted Cruz.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
This could be leading to a convention where neither candidate will go to Cleveland with 1237 delegates.
This is an excerpt worth clicking the link for the entire article.
I think many voters leaning towards Trump, have been waiting for Trump to grow into the position he is seeking. I think doubts are beginning to set in with voters, who expected Trump to ignore trivial attacks on him and start moving his campaign towards a battle for the White House.
The last few weeks have shown that Trump has not been moving in that direction, tied with the polling that shows Trump’s negatives are not coming down, but in fact may be going up.
Trump is not putting out front runner vibes to the voting public.
The analysis by Silver is interesting in that Trump is not consolidating the voters as a frontrunner should. In essence he is lagging behind where he needs to be and thus likely will fall shy of the 1237 delegate count. It is entirely possible he will underwhelm in critical states like New York (finishing with less than 50% in his home state), Pennsylvania and California (where he might outright lose).
Silver is nearly always interesting: even when he turns out to be wrong you can nearly always learn something.
Trump will be bumped once Cruz needs 101% of delegates. Cruz wont’ be able to deny a risk of a third candidate winning at the convention.
Cruz trying to explain 101% is going to be worse than his handling of TPP and other flip flops.
Trump will be bumped once Cruz needs 101% of delegates. Cruz wont’ be able to deny a risk of a third candidate winning at the convention.
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What risk?
Assume neither person has 1237 entering the convention.
The rules are voted on by the delegates who is going to vote to change rule 40?
The Cruz delegates? No
The Trump Delegates? No they will represent over 80% of the delegates by July.
For God sake, one election and folks are going postal.
Take your medication folks. Trump is going to be kicking ass on the 19th and 26th.
Ted will be a lump in a corner by the 27th.
One more idiot pleading for a GOPe convention floor fight.
Just how big an idiot are you?
If you don’t want smallpox, do you go into a room with ten of them because you’re sure you’re healthy?
No you avoid the room.
We MUST avoid a floor fight where the GOPe can wrestle control.
What the hell has gotten into you folks?
We’re now content to play the GOPe’s game?
HELL NO!
>> It is entirely possible he will underwhelm in critical states like New York
10k at yesterday’s event in Bethpage. At least a thousand were left stranded at shuttle points. Cruz met a 100 agitated citizens in the Bronx. Save the concern for Cruz.
Nevertheless, the fans of the team are on their feet, screaming for the ball to be caught, deep in the end zone, oblivious to the defeat on the board.
They can always change the numbers later at night, with a ladder and a flashlight, and by the next morning, presto! they won!
The fake cruzer-delegates.
These people pledging to Cruz are not all Cruzers, some are fake cruzers who hate Trump.
Ted’s a mess.
I know that delegates are pledged to vote for their candidate on the first ballot, bit I don't think there's anything compelling them to vote in the interests of the candidate to which they are bound with respect to votes on the rules.
Twump in twuble!
OMG, he was at that rally yesterday talking about building back up the military like Reagan.
This guy is such a copy-cat.
Next he’ll be telling everyone his daughter wants to marry Jewish and have a Jewish baby. Yes, it’s that bad!
The last few weeks have shown that Trump has not been moving in that direction, tied with the polling that shows Trump’s negatives are not coming down, but in fact may be going up.
Trump is not putting out front runner vibes to the voting public.>> agree might do a petulant tweet to that effect.
If anybody thinks Trump will fall behind in the northeastern states against Cruz or Kasich they need their head examined. He’s had one campaign rally in NY and is killing it in the polls there. Wait for the polls late next week after tons of ads and rallies. The other NE states watch the same media.
Trump most always under performs his polling numbers.. If he is at 39% he will get 30% so on so on!
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