Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
Has anyone posted the Conservative review article about Roger Stone and his work history as campaign advisor for both Rand Paul and Ron Paul as well as Mitch McConnell?
The article answered a lot for questions, but raised a few more. For instance, Stone has been a major force behind the anti-Cruz campaign since Cruz ran for the Senate. Stone is the nasty force behind the Libertarians and they are nasty, nothing but ad hominem attack after attack.
A couple of the questions are why did Stone not lock down delegates sooner? What do the Libertarians plan do about Trump’s border fence? ...or the Trumpster social
conservatives? The Libertarians own Trump now.
I can’t vouch a 100 percent for that.. I just read it on here earlier.. have not verified..
Sorry for the confusion.
If you’re saying you won’t support Cruz if he is the nomineee... or if you’re saying you won’t support Trump if he’s the nominee... or if you’re saying you won’t support Ryan, Rubio, Romney, etc., if they are the nominee.... Then yes, I will be disappointed in you.
As you said, it’s certainly your right to vote however you want. For me, it is about #NeverHillary or #NeverSanders. And I will vote for whomever is the Republican nominee, even if I can’t stand them.
Saving America is important to me. If we end up with Hillary or Sanders, I fear for my Country. Choosing to sit out the election because one doesn’t like our Republican nominee is a vote for Hillary or Sanders. That’s my opinion.
But as you said, if you’re in a liberal state, and if it’s true that your vote doesn’t matter anyway, then I can’t hold it against you if you sit out and don’t vote. But for people who COULD affect the vote, if they choose to sit out because they have sour grapes that their candidate didn’t win the nomination... THAT is what I meant by being unAmerican.
Please see Rule 16(a)(2) which indicates otherwise.
I seem to remember there was talk of Senator Rubio belatedly learning of this rule and trying to change his status to preserve binding for his delegates. That likely will be an issue referred to some committee to be resolved at the convention.
As to Mr. Silver's position on Mr. Trump's prospect for obtaining the delegates required for nomination from the pool of unbound delegates, I would normally agree if he did not work so hard at alienating everyone but his core base. At some point, he is going to have to appeal to non supporters. Most delegates I have known are long time party workers and, while they are certainly not all establishment supporters, they are not the kind of folks who want to burn the house down to get rid of the rats.
Also notice 40-b says president and vice-president.. clearly in 2012 Ryan did not get a majority of 8 delegations before the convention...
But then, I don't subscribe to "blame the voter" either. Candidates rise and fall on their own merits.
Cruz is trying to win a contested convention. It is his only path. So he is stealing Trump delegates for second balloting. It’s a convoluted process where Trump won delegates through voting but Cruz is getting support for a contested convention. That’s why Trump hired new people to start fighting back.
So you're saying that if Cruz ends up being the nominee, you would not vote for Cruz against Hillary?? Interesting. . . .
Curz is just another bush acolyte. Nope. He’ll never get a vote from me. and I don’t care if you sit there and toss a hissy fit for a month of Sundays.
I really don't have a good handle on the how Gov.Kasich staying or leaving would help stop Mr. Trump. As for Senator Cruse, I still think he has a first ballot strategy. He has been working at this for at least two years and while he may not have the most vocal fan base on this forum, he understands the rules and has many supporters at the local party activist level which is the place where delegates come from. If his first ballot strategy doesn't work, his prospects on a second ballot are very good. Mr. Trump is almost faced with a first ballot only situation.
I completely understand.
I just have a line in the sand when it comes to Hillary/Sanders, and I believe it is our duty (on the Right) to vote for our Right-side candidate.
If you choose to believe differently, I understand that, and it’s your right to vote however you want.
I probably should have said, “I consider that to be not pro-America” rather than saying it was “unAmerican.” It’s not unAmerican.
““:^)”
You became the bookmark, so I can continue reading this quality thread.
It depends on how much Trump wins by in Pennsylvania, New York and California if he gets 1237 or more.
Same thing as far as I'm concerned. I just put a very high value on personal independence, and I give that to everybody. I don't think the fate of the country rises or falls on voter apathy, or reasoned aversion to legitimizing the federal government (or a political party) with a vote.
Well, I said my piece, and apologies for running off topic.
Replying to both 384 and 386.
Post 386 first: You are correct the rule refers to both president and vice president however, it refers to demonstration of support prior to name being placed in nomination for the office in question, not prior to the convention. Being he was the selection of the presidential nominee, I doubt there was any difficulty in receiving statement of support from a majority of delegates in 8 states.
Post 384: I probably did not express myself clearly enough but it is not rule 40(b) and the 8 state requirement that would prohibit Mr. Ryan or anyone else for that matter, from being entered in nomination after the first ballot. Rule 40(e) controls what happens after balloting starts. It specifies clearly that if no one receives a majority on the first ballot, the next step is for the chairman to call for a second ballot and then a third, forth and subsequent ballots until a majority is reached. It does not provide for going back and reopening the nomination stage, only for continuing to vote until a majority is gained. It is somewhat like a state primary where there is a cut-off date for getting on the ballot. After that date if someone has not qualified for the ballot, they are not allowed to get on the ballot after voting has started.
Well, the only thing I can think of is how much I’m hearing about Cruz somehow stealing delegates after they’ve already been won by Trump.
I admit I don’t know all the ins and outs of the system, but I gotta say, as an outside, it seems pretty weird to me that someone can win delegates only to have them stolen.
They will both be eliminated before the convention, Cruz will be eliminated first. That is why Cruz is working so hard at lining up delegates. Brilliant campaign.
“So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.”
How many can Cruz lose and still beat Trump’s number?
“Well, the only thing I can think of is how much I’m hearing about Cruz somehow stealing delegates after they’ve already been won by Trump.”
Cruz can’t steal deligates pledged to Tump on the first ballot. He can take unbound Trump delegates in subsequent ballots, but that is not stealing since the delegates are not bound to Trump. Of course Trump can do the same to Cruz. Man, this could get sleezy in a hurry.
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