Posted on 04/07/2016 4:33:06 PM PDT by Jim Robinson
Edited on 04/07/2016 4:48:52 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
According to Politico's delegate counter (http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker) there are 882 delegates left.
If this s true, here is the delegate math to elimination:
Cruz currently has 517 delegates so he needs to win 720 more (81.6%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Cruz can only afford to lose a maximum of 162 delegates or he is mathematically eliminated.
Trump currently has 743 delegates so he needs to win 494 more (56%) of the remaining delegates to reach the 1237 magic number. So Trump can afford to lose up to 388 delegates without being mathematically eliminated.
Fact Cruz has lost delegates at a much higher rate than Trump throughout this primary.
It appears to me that Cruz is more than twice as likely as Trump to be mathematically eliminated.
no problem.
If Trump does get the nomination we could take bets on how many times he’ll be booed during his acceptance speech.
right . lincoln had inferior position , just like Cruz.
Yeah because Ford winning “by the established rules” worked so well for him.
If Cruz gets the nomination he’ll sure as hell give “a good shit” about Trump voters.
Which is my real worry. Trump is so egotistical that cruz MUST win the VP position on ballots.
In this scenario, trump is NOT boooed.
no.. haha my question was.. has anyone come within 10 percent of the majority needed and still was not the nominee.. Seward was over 25 percent from the majority...
Cruz should stay in and deliberately throw the winner-takes-most states to Trump once cruz needs 101%. That is unless Cruz win 3 or 4 states in a row some time soon.
All of Trump’s 37% (and maybe his popular vote will go up to 40-45% (after east and west coast)) is Trump voters.
Trump will be ahead 4 or 5 million votes if you minus the the home states of NY & TX.
Cruz has to admit some of the 28% he has is not all Cruz voters so he can’t claim at this point he is some sort of unity candidate except unity to force Trump to 2nd convention vote.
If he’s double zero, what is Cruz with only about 66% of his delegate total? Triple zero?
Do you have any idea what Cruz’s delegate total would be if he had to stand up in front of the people in regular primaries?
Ted would be in for a rude surprise if he had to go back to those caucus states when the GOPe couldn’t dictate who their hand picked delegates would vote for.
Yea it is interesting.. I just don’t see a candidate getting as close as 5 or 10 percent of the amount needed and not getting the nomination.. I don’t know for sure, but I would bet that has never happened before.. If it is 65 percent of the way to a majority I can see it.. maybe even as high as 75, but I can not see where a candidate gets to 90-95 percent and still does not get the nomination...
Cruz is parroting Trump verbatim.
And not one person in the media is calling him on it. If he gets the nomination they’ll be asking him about lots of things he will not want to talk about.
The gope does not matter if Trump and cruz run the rules committee.
your blind hatred for everything non-trump wont let you see it.
trump NEVER had wisconsin in the bag. This was tilting against trump and towards cruz for a long time. Trump had no chance. He was there to make sure Cruz stayed below 50%
I mean to make one more point about the caucus states.
Since the general Republican folks were not able to vote in a primary, they aren’t obligated to be faithful to Ted.
The folks that voted for Ted in the Caucus states are not nearly as big as the numbers in primary states.
The GOPe undercuts it’s on member’s loyalty.
And then you have all the write off states that Cruz will not play well in at all.
Did you know that Romney conceded about 180 delegates from big states, out of the shoot?
Cruz couldn’t get those back. Trump very well could in a number of those states.
That’s why I made the comment about numbers being small.
The ARG poll had trump 10 the day before the election.
Blind hatred.
It’s very much open eyed hatred.
I started out this election cycle wanting Ted to be Trump’s V.P. pick.
Today I wouldn’t cast a ballot for him for any public office.
Ok, well then in that case I stand corrected. :-)
Personally, I agree with Jim that Cruz should drop out, but not because he is mathematically eliminated from winning 1237 straight up. I think he should drop out now, in the interest of uniting against the democrats ASAP.
If he doesn’t drop out after NY, he is obviously staying in simply to keep Trump from reaching 1237, so that he can try his luck in a ‘brokered’ convention. It’s true that with rule changes and multiple ballots, anyone can theoretically win, but Cruz would have to be delusional to think it would be him. The GOPe will hold all the cards at that point and will nominate some establishment loser (certainly not Ted Cruz) thus assuring Clinton the presidency, and we will have Cruz’s delusional thinking to blame for it.
I think this may have been Jim’s point - if so, I agree.
Dude I get it. I want Trump on top and cruz as VP.
WE have to have principles somewhere on the ticket.
Some freeper said trump could pay one million per delegate needed.
I would not object, if only Trump would .
But trump wont even fund roger stone.
Think about it.
yeah I get it, unfortunately.
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