Posted on 03/28/2016 5:57:21 AM PDT by GilGil
I continue to be amazed by those pundits who suggest Donald Trump can’t beat Hillary Clinton.
There are three principal reasons for such faulty conclusions: •These folks are working under the strictures of an old paradigm. That is the one that says Democrats start out with a base of unlosable states and electoral votes and need only to win two or more swing states. •Polls taken today, before the Trump-Hillary campaign even begins. •Trump’s high negatives.
Let’s look at one big reason none of these factors will come into play after the conventions.
(Excerpt) Read more at wnd.com ...
What they say and what they do may not be the same. However, let’s say that number is legitimate. The cross-over voters take away from Democrat numbers and add to Republican numbers so it may indeed be enough to win the election even without them.
When 95+% of the “experts” and elite and politicians are attacking Trump every change they get, he’s not going to get support from casual news readers/viewers. Fortunately he has the stamina to get on TV a lot and argue his side.
If republicans/GOPe/conservatives would stop attacking Trump and start arguing for their preferred candidate things may change. It would be REALLY nice to see if it changes before the nomination. It would also be nice if Cruz (or any other potential nominee) gets a few months of articles and arguments FOR them.
At this point, if it’s Trump, a lot of people have heard bad things from BOTH sides that he starts in a hole. If it’s not Trump the nominee will have missed a lot of positive coverage since the inches and minutes are filled trashing Trump.
I still can’t believe I voted for McCain. But, I did.
40% of Republicans say that they will never vote for Trump. It will be hard for Trump to win with only crossover Democrats.
Besides, none of the states Trump has won has he gotten over 50%
The GOP is more divided with Trump or Cruz than they were with Romney and he lost. And the polls were pretty accurate in 2012 and people here were dismissing those as well
If we have almost all Cruz and Trump delegates at the convention,
that will be very difficult to do.
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The delegate selection is a state/district level process and often is ruled by a few of
the GOP party people. Regardless of how the general public votes quite often the party
governance chooses amongst themselves as to whom will be at the convention.
So I don’t place much belief in the will of the voters being the biggest determinate
in the candidate selection process. It is the party elite, imo.
But a Hillary/Bernie ticket would bring along the Bernie voters if he came up short for the nomination.
Hogwash. Hlary Clinton is a terrible candidate, and an outsider - even one who "does not flatter the power elites" - should be able to beat her.
If Trump does not beat her, it will be because he habitually engages in juvenile, offensive conduct that has absolutely nothing to do with being an outsider, or with any substantive position. But it is conduct that a great many people find offensive, and beneath the dignity of someone who aspires to the office held by Washington, Lincoln, and Reagan.
There's nothing wrong with making enemies in politics. Frankly, you're doing something wrong if you',re not making enemies. But there is something very wrong in making unnecessary enemies through purely gratuitous offensive comments and behaviors.
If Trump.loses ,that will be why. Not because he's stepping on the toes of the boogeyman elites.
“40% of Republicans say that they will never vote for Trump”
You really believe that ?? Nothing but primary BS
40% of Republicans say that they will never vote for Trump.
70% of Republicans spout B.S. a fair percentage of the time.
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Does that include the Republicans saying that they are for Trump?
RCP
New York Pennsylvania California
Trump 54.5 Trump 34.5 Trump 34.3
Cruz 11.5 Kasich 20.0 Cruz 26.0
Kasich 9.5 Cruz 18.5 Kasich 15.8
I guess one thing is for certain: this season is like no other before. Thus there is real uncertainty. Interestingly, I find all of the points on this thread to be plausible, even ones that flatly contradict each other.
This could turn out any number of ways. But as Farah points out, we are trying to remember the past and project it into the future and nothing like this has ever happened.
Likely, some one here will be mostly right, and many others will be mostly wrong. But I don’t know which predictions will end up being true.
This is an historic election cycle...meaning momentous, but simultaneously completely cut off from history. And therefore uncertain.
There are a lot of republicans that are anti-Trump, but I also think there are a fair number of Bernie supporters that won’t vote for Hillary. So it’s going to be interesting.
If the mentality is that either Hillary, a documented liar, or Bernie, a known communist, would be better for the United States than any other person, then this country is already lost.
“Interestingly, I find all of the points on this thread to be plausible, even ones that flatly contradict each other.”
Yup, I can’t see anything beyond the bounds of reasonable plausibility. It’s going to be hard to keep this in mind when something actually happens and outcomes are eliminated with extreme predjudice. It will be interesting to see who admits they were really, really, really wrong.
The closest I can recall to this is the Palin running/not running debate.
Freegards
I am a Conservative, so now way I will vote for Trump.... in the Primary. By that same reasoning, because I am a Conservative, I will vote for Trump in the general election (if he wins the nomination) because electing someone with some conservative values is better than electing someone with none.
That was a vicious time around here.
That said...I think it is different. To me, and lots of other people, it was completely obvious that she wasn’t really running. Lots of us couldn’t figure out why anyone believed that she was. But in retrospect, I think it was just b/c really good people - great Americans - wanted someone to bring the fight to the left and the GOPe. Which is totally understandable. But that desire led the to wish, rather than see the obvious.
In THIS instance, I don’t see anything which is obvious at all......
November will answer all of our questions
“More concerned by Bernie”
I agree. Both Trump and Sanders are war skeptics, both of them want to see industry return to the US. Trump would lose the monopoly on those positions and most of the crossover disaffected Dems would default back to a big government solution.
Sanders is a serious threat and is actually popular. Hillary can be disassembled scandal by scandal and driven hard until she has another aneurysm.
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