Posted on 03/15/2016 10:25:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The two leading GOP campaigns intend to muscle the Ohio governor out of the race.
Advisers to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz say there's no way they'll allow John Kasich to even compete at a contested national convention -- let alone prevail.
Trump and Cruz are betting that their dual dominance in the delegate hunt will permanently box out the Ohio governor, who has no mathematical path to the nomination and is openly pursuing a floor fight at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. And their aides say Kasich won't even make it to the floor.
"There is virtually zero chance he can even be nominated," Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican national committeeman who's advising Cruz on his convention strategy, told POLITICO. "It's a two-man race."
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that Trump and Cruz are nearly certain to control the lion's share of the 2,472 delegates participating in the July convention. Together, they've earned more than 1,000 delegate slots to Kasich's 136. And those delegates will ultimately approve the rules that govern a contested convention.
In addition, a rule adopted at the 2012 convention -- pushed by supporters of Mitt Romney to box out Ron Paul -- requires that any candidate eligible for the nomination win the majority of delegates in eight states or territories. In 31 contests so far, Kasich's only win came Tuesday night in Ohio -- his home state -- and it's unlikely he'll command majority support in seven of the remaining 20 contests.
There's a small chance Cruz could fail to meet the target as well. He's only won majority support in four contests so far. Trump, with a dominant win in the Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday, became the first candidate to cross the threshold.
To be sure, the convention rules will get a thorough review and revision when delegates convene in Cleveland, raising the possibility that the threshold to participate could be lowered, making room for Kasich. But with Trump and Cruz delegates at the helm, it's unlikely they'll adjust it to help a rival.
"The Cruz folks would never allow the rules to be changed and of course we wouldn't either," said Barry Bennett, who's coordinating Trump's convention strategy. "The laws of math are not amendable."
Trump's resounding wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina on Tuesday may preclude a contested convention altogether. If he secures the support of a majority of delegates over the next three months, he would enter Cleveland as the presumptive nominee and head off any challenge to his supremacy. But Kasich has predicated his candidacy on the notion that no one will have a majority entering the convention. What's been unclear until now is that even if he's right, Kasich may have little reason to hope he'll get the party's nod.
A Kasich spokesman said the naysaying only fuels the governor further. "With so many states still to go, and the map becoming increasingly Kasich-friendly, there's little doubt we will be going all the way to Cleveland," said the spokesman, Rob Nichols. " The same people trying to write us off at the convention were also trying to write us off for the first debate, for New Hampshire, after South Carolina and countless other times. How'd that work out? We're very comfortable with our place, our strategy and our future."
In that vein, Kasich's campaign foreshadowed its plans for a convention brawl late Tuesday, naming Stu Spencer and Charlie Black -- two veterans of the last contested convention, the 1976 fight between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan -- to his national strategy team.
Tom Rath, a Kasich adviser from New Hampshire and veteran of the Republican convention process, said Trump and Cruz's advisers may be overlooking the role of politics at the convention. If a contested convention arrives, and Kasich is dramatically outpolling Trump and Cruz against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, convention delegates may make judgments based on political calculus.
"It's a political convention and sooner or later, the realities of the moment politically, which we cannot foresee now, will overwhelm all the process in the world," Rath said. "You cannot make a judgment about what could happen until you know the political context within which that action is happening."
Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican Congressman and Kasich supporter, added that convention delegates must consider who can win in November as part of their process. "The rule of the party is to make sure to advance the best candidate for the general election. I think all the delegates are going to have to sit down and think this through very carefully.
Rath said that if Trump and Cruz are unable to break a deadlock to hand one of them the nomination, convention delegates can suspend their rules -- including the eight-state threshold -- to give other candidates the chance to put their names forward. Paul Ryan, who as House speaker presides over the convention, would preside over that process -- and his determinations on suspending convention rules could carry the day. Rath added that a deadlocked situation could also elevate Kasich as critical tie breaker -- perhaps the key to assembling a winning coalition.
Morton Blackwell, a Republican national committeeman from Pennsylvania who has attended every national convention since 1964, said he foresaw the obstacle that the rules would cause and pressed to revise them at a meeting in January, before any primary contests had been held. He was ultimately shot down. He says he's concerned that any attempt to lower the threshold now -- at the expense of Trump and Cruz -- would be viewed as an attempt by insiders to rig the convention against the two anti-establishment candidates.
"Reintroducing it now would be a cause of war," he said. "I don't want the scandal of a change in the rules ... I think we're much more likely to lose if there's an attempt to change the rules no matter who it helps or hurts."
Trump offers Cruz VP slot and first pick of SCOTUS
If Trump and CRuz could act like adults and realize its just politics, not personal, they should be able to bury the hatchet and work together. The main problem Cruz have with Trump is that he think Trump is a fake Conservative. Well be his VP and keep him honest
Cruz has no shot at the nomination and cant beat SHRILLARY! even if he was the nominee.
Trump/Cruz ticket beats the communists, Trump serves 4 years and Cruz takes over.
They fix it so the marxists never win a national election again.
And monkeys will fly out, well you get it.
More like a caucus. Who has been winning Caucus States?
This is getting worse than Obama's red lines. I guess if Trump is elected _resident he will just try to scare bad countries into place by threatening to sue them.
Hey that reminds me of shades of Boehner with his crazy lawsuit.
Cruz has been jumping through a lot of hoops for the backstabbers lately. The latest outrage is putting Ned Bush on his campaign staff. Would Cruz vote to let Kasich’s name on the ballot? If he’s that sold out, Trump supporters will be inconsolable.
War.... in your dreams. The American people will never stand up to this tyrannical government and fight to take their country back.
America is at the mall. The Marines are at war.
No Trump person is mentioned in the article.
Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump are BOTH CONFIRMED SPEAKERS according to
these AIPAC pages:
page1 page2
Hillary Clinton is confirmed too! But crazy-Bernie is not listed.
Go Donald! Bash the sea hag politely while you show your statesmanship, and support for Israel on the world stage,
(and while Barack Hussein hides in Cuba)
No. He's PROUD of the strategy that he could be handed the nomination if the backstabbers finagle to steal it from Trump.
He won 4 of 5 last night. How did Cruz do?
Trump is thinking of skipping the next debate—good idea to skip all of them,he doesn’t need them and he always runs the risk of his, shall we say, “undisciplined” mouth finally getting him in some real trouble.
So if it is Cruz vs Kasich on stage it will be traditional conservative vs RINO, like Reagan vs Bush the elder.Plus Ted’s debating skills have no equal and Kasich is about as interesting as snow in the arctic. Cruz will massacre the mailman’s son.
This is a good way to eliminate the parasite and let the people have their two way race.
Have you ever seen Trump from behind?? a few bald spots, but harder to see with blond/otange hair. I wish Trump would go to his natural color—a Distinguished grey.
So in that regard Kasich could be setting himself up as the popular choice for VP, whether Trump wants him or not. Especially if Kasich wins a few more states.
Because big picture, I don't see the "Anybody but Trump" crowd going to Cruz, or vice versa. Their natural destination is Kasich. So John the Mailman's Son doesn't have to stay in to win the nomination, just be close enough to be noticeable. If you are going to make a deal to allow Donald Trump to be the Republican candidate, who do you want as VP? Kasich or Cruz? Should be an easy decision for the Establishment/RINO's/etc.
The establishment does not need a rule change for Kasich to use his strategy. The liberal from Ohio is planning to read words like a Clinton.
Kasich hopes to get concentrations of delegates to defect in the second round of voting so that he can demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight or more states - in that round of voting. If he has that prior to the presentation of his name in the second round of voting, Kasich will claim, “eight states, give me the nomination”.
That is the only reason for Kasich not to drop out. If he actually objected to Trump, his best bet would be to allow a one-on-one between Trump and Cruz. The pro-Obamacare, pro-Amnesty, pro-gay “marriage”, anti-gun big government liberal from Ohio objects to anyone other than himself. His strategy has always been to remain the last establishment candidate standing. It just might work - he has everything it takes to follow in McCain’s and Romney’s footsteps as a close second place in the November election.
Talk of a third party is and has been nonsense — it’s entirely sabotage-oriented agitprop, comes from the Demagogic Party’s machinery.
This "Brokered Convention" nonsense is the GOPE in the bargaining state
Trump or Cruz will be the nominee.
The Splitter.
Now to buy his way on to the PA ballot...with Soros $$
John of Ohio should be kicked out.
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