(link)Posted on 02/20/2016 9:21:50 PM PST by smoothsailing
February 20, 2016
by sundance
In August of 2015, against considerable backlash, we stood firm on a fundamental position that Senator Ted Cruz did not have a pathway, a roadmap, to victory in the 2016 GOP presidential primary.
Despite the fundamentally sound reasoning for our prediction, which was entirely based on congressional district by district analytics, our position drew an immense amount of criticism and even a quick response from the Cruz campaign itself (Brian Phillips).
Unfortunately, tonight’s South Carolina results vindicate a massive amount of historical research. There simply is no pathway to victory when you rely almost exclusively on “proselytizing as an electoral strategy“:
(link)
It’s not personal, it is simply a factual reality. The Ted Cruz Road Map is non-existent; and beyond the SEC primary states there is little to no organization at all. Nothing in the state of Florida. The campaign is NOT what most people have been led to believe it is.
We strongly urge people to do their own research and to connect their own dots. The campaign will NOT stop sending you donation requests, that much is certain.
All the polls I’ve seen out of the 12 Super Tuesday states, Trump is leading in 9 or 10 of them, and Cruz is leading in 2 or 3, but only by a few points in each one.
Trump will most likely win big in Nevada on Tuesday, it is very possible that the bandwagon effect could kick in, and people will start voting for the guy who is winning races as opposed to the guys who are always 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th. If that happens, Trump could win all 12 contests.
All this talk about consolidating the so-called anti-Trump vote and getting Kasich and Carson out, doesn’t take into account the very short time it is between now and Super Tuesday, only 10 days. I heard one woman on CNN saying that all the Super PAC’s will now come up with anti-Trump ads, but it still doesn’t give them much time to wage their anti-Trump campaign. If he wins 10 or 12 of the Super Tuesday contests, who will donate any money or time to the Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Carson campaigns? Rubio and Cruz may even be forced to drop out by mid-March if they haven’t actually won anything.
Cruz has a wider base of support than Rubio. If Rubio won a few counties and still got the same to 1% as Cruz means Cruz has a wide base of support.
Every establishment hack wants Cruz out and a 1 on 1 with Trump.
I want Cruz in. Trump will win everything against cruz, rube & kasich
If Cruz truly believed in the Constitution, he wouldn’t be running!
I am leaning towards Trump, but I like Cruz as well. I don’t like how he has pulled some dirty tricks campaigning, but that’s outweighed in my mind by his conservative record. I mentioned this to my Mom that he’s still young enough where he can run again in 8 [or God forbid 4] years. People who suggested he would be a good Supreme Court pick are right, but I don’t see that happening.
On the Apprentice...and also on the Godfather.
Why celebrating with you of course.
OUch! That was meanly funny.
Show me every county from Wyoming to Florida and Cruz has more widespread support than Rubio.
Overall Trump would probably win 80% of those counties.
I like the idea of him replacing Scalia.
I can’t lie. I think Trump would do great things for the country, but I don’t believe he is a social conservative and would appoint Cruz.
There’s lots of issues he’ll be very good on and I could be very wrong. it’s happened before :)
A scenario that is GREAT for America.
There will not be 3 still in the race on March 17th.
Agreed. I would love to have Cruz’s strength on the Trump train. He just needs a little humility to help save America.
Cruz has been basically saying you’re for him, or not a Christian. Adios you christolitmas dirt bag.
“I know a number of Trump people (not all) do methamphetamine”
How many? What percentage? Are you talking about FR? If so, PLEASE name names! Inquiring minds want to know! Also, how does ANY methhead manage to get their act together to vote, anyway?
There is a multiplier effect as time goes on. As Trump piles up an insurmountable lead in delegates, the vote share of his rivals will shrink and they will drop out.
That’s still the most likely scenario. An anti-Trump candidate has to win somewhere.
IA doesn’t matter.
“Iowa was peak Cruz.”
And tainted at that.
go to a club or bar!!
I’m taking the wife out tomorrow to celebrate the death of the bush dynasty.
Portobello. Decided some days ago that when the day came that’s what we would do, but it was too late when the announcement came :)
Wise up and remember that Bush and eventually Kasich’s votes are going to Rubio.
Trump would be wise to start damaging Rubio because he wasn’t affected by the Bush attacks at all.
Trump wins, Cruz second (no delegates), Bush out, Rubio done after Florida, and in showbiz, there's no such thing as bad publicity. Trump/Cruz 2016 beats Clinton/Castro 201anything.
LOL, love that defeaTED graphic.
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