National poll: Cruz and Rubio surged after Iowa

Politico ^ | February 9, 2015 | Nolan D. McCaskill

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are riding a wave of momentum after strong finishes in Iowa.

Donald Trump maintains a double-digit lead over his Republican rivals, but Rubio has experienced the largest surge, according to an NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll released Tuesday.

The billionaire businessman has 35 percent support nationally among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters. Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses last week, has 20 percent support, followed by Rubio in third with 17 percent support. Ben Carson is at 7 percent, and the rest of the field is at 3 percent or less.

While Trump still leads by 15 percentage points, his support has dropped in the past week as Rubio has risen 5 points. The remainder of the field has been relatively stagnant.

But Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are increasingly seeing Cruz and Rubio as threats to take the nomination away from Trump, who has held commanding leads over his rivals nationally for months. A 42 percent plurality say Trump will win the nomination - a massive 20 percent fall since last week that comes amid double-digit gains for Cruz and Rubio. About three in 10 say they believe will Cruz will win the nomination, and 18 percent say they see Rubio coming out on top. Both are 10 percentage-point upticks since last week.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

February 09, 2016, 07:30 am

“........Tuesday’s results, however, also found less confidence that Trump will win the Republican nomination.”

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/268725-poll-trump-leads-cruz-by-15-points-nationwide

[grania]

consistently polling between 3% - 5%

This year is different. Voters ARE tuned in, as is evidenced by how quickly poll numbers shift. Someone in that low range if they peak at the ideal time could have a piece of the delegates needed in putting together a nominating majority.

[BlueStateRightist]

My only prediction: 2, if not 3, establishment types will drop out of the race on Wednesday. As will either Carson or Fiorina. A lot of thinning of the ranks.

[mtrott]

Uh, oh(national media). They’ve doggedly ignored Cruz since the last debate, because, as Rush opined, Cruz had a good debate and they don’t want to replay his great answers to questions.

The other uh, oh is that Rush says that if people jump off of Rubio, they are most likely to switch to Cruz.

[Gaffer]

Personally, my opinion is that a supporter of Rubio who may end up without a candidate would more likely go to Bush or Kasich instead of Cruz. To me, there is a world of difference between the two, and there is nothing good about Rubio in my opinion.

[mtrott]

Not so sure about that. Because of how tightly bunched the RINO governors are, the pundits last night were beginning to think they all might trudge on at least through SC. I think the most likely to drop out would be Christie, as he is now at around 4% in NH, and I don’t think he helped himself one bit with his attacks on Rubio.

[mtrott]

Rubio is more solidly pro-life than those two. He did have a great answer on that issue in the last debate, so those voters to whom that is a big issue may go Cruz. But I would agree that a lot of Rubio’s recently added support are from the RINO wing and would go to Bush/Kasich.

[zek157]

Karl Denninger @ market-ticker.org posted an interesting comment about your boy today. Either Cruz has a Consular Report of Birth on record, or he’s not a citizen. Simple as that as Canada did not have dual citizenship at the time of his birth.

https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=231093

There’s a clean question on the table regarding dual citizenship for persons born in Canada prior to 1977 (when they changed their law to officially recognize dual nationality.)

Prior to that date, with few exceptions, you could not hold dual nationality with Canada. In other words the very act of “renouncing” Canadian Citizenship means that Cruz never held US citizenship at birth because his parents had to declare his nationality at the time he was born.

There may be exceptions that were available at the time but the law now is immaterial.

The only material fact is what the law was then, in 1970, in Canada when Cruz was born.

If his parents declared US for him then he had nothing to renounce and he has a document called a Consular Report of Birth Abroad.

This is the legal equivalent of a US Birth Certificate and Cruz either has one from the time of his birth or he does not. If he does not then he is not a US Citizen as he was never naturalized by his own admission and at birth the nation in which he was born did not recognize dual nationality.

Where is that document Cruz? Your mother’s birth certificate is immaterial. What matters is whether you were declared a Canadian or US Citizen at birth and what documentation you have to prove it.

You see, in 1970 there was no “and” option.

Cruz either has that Consular Report of Birth Abroad, which is his legal proof of US Citizenship just as my Birth Certificate is mine, or he doesn’t and he’s not a citizen at all as his parents declared his citizenship as Canadian and the land he were born in prohibited dual nationality at the time.

If he doesn’t have that document, of course, there’s a little problem with the office Senator Cruz holds now, say much less his running for President.

[MaxFlint]

This new national poll shows a "massive 20 point drop" for Trump in GOP voters believing he will be the eventual nominee.

If they conduct the same poll tomorrow it will show a 20 point surge in same. If Trump's lead with likely voters doesn't start dropping soon Cruz is hosed.

[MaxFlint]

They've doggedly ignored Cruz since the last debate, because, as Rush opined, Cruz had a good debate and they don't want to replay his great answers to questions.

Christie's epic takedown of Rube was all anyone was talking about after that debate. This is the problem with "great debaters", a great soundbite can upstage all their technical points. That's how Trump has been dominating, and for once Christie got in on the act. Has Cruz had a single debate moment as good as Christie's? If he has I haven't seen it.

That's my only problem with Cruz. Seems like a good man, strong on borders, authentic conservative, but just can't connect. That spells problems in the general election.

[CottonBall]

“A 42 percent plurality say Trump will win the nomination - a massive 20 percent fall since last week that comes amid double-digit gains for Cruz and Rubio. “

And after Trump wins NH, he’ll gain those back.

Fickle voters. How can one tiny state where there is a difference if one delegate make anyone change. Unless they are voting based on Cruz’s dirty politician tricks of intimidation and lying.

[Crucial]

I think Rubio supporters will jump to Cruz, particularly Latinos. Rubio is a no go. I really don’t see how he’s eligible and he’s an amnesty guy through and through. The Left desperately wants Rubio for an easy win.

[Uncle Miltie]

Marco “Stepford” Rubio.

[Kenny]

Anyone under 10%, their delegates go to the winner.

[Grampa Dave]

Rubio surge will soon begin to go as people see him more clearly as a GOPe robot. Amnesty is not what real Americans want.

Mexican Leaders, like Jorge Ramos, would prefer their Rube to be our president!

Rubio promises to keep Obama's executive amnesty for Dreamers:

In a little-noticed interview earlier this year with Univision Jorge Ramos, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) declared that, as President, he would keep Barack Obama executive amnesty for DREAMers in place until it was permanently codified through legislation.

Jorge Ramos is the Univision Open Borders Rectum, who was thrown out of a presser by Trump last year.

breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/02/marco-rubio-jorge-ramos-will-keep-obamas-first-executive-amnesty-place-legislative-amnesty-enacted/

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

"'Surge'...the most overused word in the 2016 election cycle. Even a one point increase is referred to as a surge."

Surging - A Haiku

Hearing of a "surge"
of support for Rubio
I've the urge to purge

Hank

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

Does Rubio fit SC? I’m not quarreling - I just haven’t really heard that. Seems more suited for either Cruz or Trump to me.

Hank

[eartick]

Lucky to finish 5th

5th would be good. Most bobble MSM people are saying 4th or 5th would be a win for Senator Cruz.

I believe coming in 1st is the winner but I do not understand everything about how they figure these things out or how they twist this crap

BUT I do know one thing, we need to return to the Constitution and we need Cruz as President for that

GO CRUZ GO

[TornadoAlley3]

Not sure yet.

[Dstorm]

Please refer to the following link for a better understanding of the CRBA (FS-240) it is not a required document to prove US Citizenship status,

https://travel.state.gov/content/passports/en/abroad/events-and-records/birth.html