Posted on 12/12/2015 4:56:15 PM PST by Amntn
According to the latest Des Moines Register Poll, (full pdf below) of 400 Republican caucus goers, candidate Ted Cruz has surged into the lead with 31% support - a gain of 21 points since DMR's previous polling:
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
Bingo!
Trump leads in all of the areas that matter.
EXACTLY RIGHT!!!
Thanks for posting ‘the rest of the story’, newfreep :)
Go Trump!!! Make America Great, Again!!
Cruz is an excellent politician...
Politician....that’s exactly what the majority of Americans (including me) have said they are sick and tired of :(
I don’t buy that this poll is a fraud. Too many other things on the ground in Iowa back these results up.
And I think this poll rockets Cruz into the spotlight over the next week. Will be interesting to see how he performs under pressure. There is a 70 percent cohort of GOP voters who do not like Trump. The question is how many GOPe will realize Cruz is the compromise candidate and abandon their guy for him.
This is Cruz’s big opening if he plays it right.
The Register is pissed and this is how they react.
Watch the speech from Des Moines and you'll see what he says and how the crowd of thousands agreesand applauds what he says about the Des Moines paper being very dishonest.
I never said all Iowa voters are idiots. Why do you not read my post completely and comprehend what I said before throwing out comments? What I really said is those 400 voters who were hand picked by DMR have no credibility whatsoever when they pick Cruz over Rubio or Santorum or Bush as the best to get cooperation from congress. That proves beyond any shadow of doubt these voters are either badly mis-informed or just plain biased in favor of Cruz.
400 voters is a very small number among 3.1 million Iowans.
To repeat, Ted Cruz is easily the most UNpopular senator among the 100. He has’nt been been able to pass a single bill of any significance through senate. Usually he gets only 2 or 3 votes for his bills.
Even in the House, consistent Cruz backers number less than 10%. Which is why in his 3 years in senate, there is not a SINGLE bill of any significance sponsored by Cruz.
You have good knowledge of history!
Joseph Stalin has said “He who votes decides nothing; he who counts the votes decides everything.”
But any half informed US citizen who has paid any attention to votes in congress should have known either Rubio or Bush would have the best chance to get congressional cooperation.Trump won't need congressional cooperation, he's already controlling them, the President and the media with his agenda and he's not even elected. He most certainly has the people behind him and they all know it...
He truly would use the bully pulpit and would be one of the most effective at it.
Correct. Read my tag line, please.
Awesome post.
Yeah, I was undecided for months between Trump and Cruz, and it’s been a struggle to stay with Cruz seeing the ugly behavior of many of his supporters here on FR.
But what finally made me choose Trump was Cruz’s shakiness when it comes to the globalists, especially the muslim immigration issue. On breaking news related to immigration and terrorism, he hesitates, then calculates, then straddles.
It tells me he struggles between two masters: the Constitution and potential/current globalist donors. The two aren’t often in conflict, but he when they are, Cruz sides with the globalist donors.
Even if he does, he’s still toast. Trump is up huge in the next several states, this is Cruz’s moment in the sun.
This misses entropy12’s point for why he listed the few friends Cruz has in congress: he pointed this out to criticize the respondents in the dmr poll showing Cruz would be best at relating to congress.
entropy12 has a solid case that these respondents are clueless.
It doesn’t exactly invalidate the whole suite of polls, including the big one showing Cruz at above 30%, because as obama has proven, clueless voters tend to matter.
| the Numbers | |||||||||
| Among likely Republican caucus goers | |||||||||
| Carson | Cruz | Rubio | Trump | Not Sure | |||||
| Would be best at managing the economy | 7 | 24 | 10 | 50 | 8 | ||||
| Would do the most to solve the illegal immigration problem | 5 | 22 | 15 | 50 | 8 | ||||
| Knows the most about how to get things done | 6 | 22 | 13 | 49 | 10 | ||||
| Would be the best at reducing the federal deficit | 6 | 27 | 10 | 48 | 10 | ||||
| Can best combat Islamic terrorism | 5 | 32 | 13 | 35 | 16 | ||||
| Would be best at dealing with Vladimir Putin | 10 | 31 | 13 | 34 | 13 | ||||
| Has the best chance of beating Hillary Clinton | 11 | 26 | 20 | 30 | 14 | ||||
| Would make the best commander in chief | 12 | 34 | 18 | 25 | 11 | ||||
| Has the most appropriate life experience to be president | 10 | 34 | 19 | 24 | 13 | ||||
| Cares the most about people like you | 24 | 28 | 19 | 17 | 12 | ||||
| Has the right values to lead the nation | 22 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 10 | ||||
| Would work most effectively with Congress | 18 | 31 | 29 | 12 | 10 | ||||
| Has the best temperament to be president | 23 | 24 | 25 | 11 | 7 | ||||
| Would do the most to make all abortion illegal | 23 | 32 | 7 | 6 | 32 | ||||
| 182 | 401 | 229 | 407 | 174 | |||||
| All other things being equal, which of the following | |||||||||
| is a more attractive candidate for president at this time: | |||||||||
| 39 | A government outsider who has handled | ||||||||
| complex issues and managed teams | |||||||||
| 30 | A U.S. senator, who has involvement with national | ||||||||
| security and international relations and diplomatic issues | |||||||||
| 19 | A governor, who has worked with a legislature and | ||||||||
| who has been responsible for balancing a budget | |||||||||
| 12 | Not sure | ||||||||
| Which one of the following Republicans would be | |||||||||
| your first choice for president? | |||||||||
| And who would your second choice be? | |||||||||
| If Uncommitted or not sure in first choice question, | |||||||||
| code second choice | |||||||||
| as no first choice and do not ask. | |||||||||
| FIRST | SECOND | COMBINED | |||||||
| Cruz, Ted | 31 | 20 | 51 | ||||||
| Trump Donald | 21 | 14 | 35 | ||||||
| Carson, Ben | 13 | 14 | 27 | ||||||
| Rubio, Marco | 10 | 14 | 24 | ||||||
| Bush, Jeb | 6 | 5 | 11 | ||||||
| Christie, Chris | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||||||
| Huckabee, Mike | 3 | 5 | 8 | ||||||
| Paul, Rand | 3 | 3 | 6 | ||||||
| Kasich, John | 2 | 2 | 4 | ||||||
| Fiorina, Carley | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||||||
| Santorum, Rick | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||
| Gilmore, Jim | - | - | - | ||||||
| Graham, Linda | - | - | - | ||||||
| Pataki, George | - | - | - | ||||||
| Not Sure | 4 | 4 | |||||||
| Uncomitted | 3 | 3 | |||||||
| No First Choice | 7 | ||||||||
Even three semester hours (a one semester course) would be enough to know that saying a poll of 400 people can’t deliver a meaningful result is verbal vomit. It’s basic stuff. This poll was conducted to give a reliability of plus/minus 4.9 percent. Cruz’s lead is outside the uncertainty.
Good, then you won’t mind my 11 (3 undergrad, 8 grad)
The Fox Poll of 807 makes my case that with similar sample size, you can expect significantly different results:
>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/12/11/fox-news-poll-cruz-clinton-lead-in-iowa/<
Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R) Interviews Conducted:N = 807 IA likely caucus-goers (587 landline, 220 cellphone)
450 are GOP likely voters
Q6-13 IF REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN Q1, N=450]
I’m going to read a list of candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If the caucus were held today, which one of the following would be your first choice for president? [IFNOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
7-10 Dec 2015
Ted Cruz 28%
Donald Trump 26
Marco Rubio 13
Ben Carson10
Jeb Bush 5
Rand Paul 5
Chris Christie 2
Carly Fiorina 2
Mike Huckabee 1
John Kasich 1
George Pataki 1
Lindsey Graham *
Rick Santorum *
Jim Gilmore
-
(Other)
1(“Uncommittedâ€) 1
(Don’t know) 3
Trump will win huge in IOWA ,NH, SC
Let me show you how I know he will win in IOWA. Trump enthusiasm is beyond question. Cruz doen’t like ethanol. He can’t get along in the Senate with anyosne but Mike Lee and there is another huge issue which we all fear that I won’t go in to. Trump numbers will be overwhelming , enthusiam and stamina will wipe out those Iowa stand up caucus meeting. Busses will be pouring in from all over the country. We want to make America Great again. Go Trump.
Gimme of that old time campaigning...sung to the tune of *Old Time Religion*. Politics, the way politics was meant to be. Great to see his wheels on the tracks.
GO TRUMP GO CRUZ ~YOU WIN OR WE LOSE!
Thanks for the full breakdown.
It proves the point that the internals do not match the over all totals.
I read somewhere that a majority these respondents also want single payer health care.
????
What was the overall respondent breakdown? (By party affiliation)
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