Even three semester hours (a one semester course) would be enough to know that saying a poll of 400 people can’t deliver a meaningful result is verbal vomit. It’s basic stuff. This poll was conducted to give a reliability of plus/minus 4.9 percent. Cruz’s lead is outside the uncertainty.
Good, then you won’t mind my 11 (3 undergrad, 8 grad)
The Fox Poll of 807 makes my case that with similar sample size, you can expect significantly different results:
>http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/12/11/fox-news-poll-cruz-clinton-lead-in-iowa/<
Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R) Interviews Conducted:N = 807 IA likely caucus-goers (587 landline, 220 cellphone)
450 are GOP likely voters
Q6-13 IF REPUBLICAN CAUCUS IN Q1, N=450]
I’m going to read a list of candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If the caucus were held today, which one of the following would be your first choice for president? [IFNOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
7-10 Dec 2015
Ted Cruz 28%
Donald Trump 26
Marco Rubio 13
Ben Carson10
Jeb Bush 5
Rand Paul 5
Chris Christie 2
Carly Fiorina 2
Mike Huckabee 1
John Kasich 1
George Pataki 1
Lindsey Graham *
Rick Santorum *
Jim Gilmore
-
(Other)
1(“Uncommittedâ€) 1
(Don’t know) 3