Posted on 12/01/2015 12:51:28 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Donald Trump's lead in public opinion polling could have a soft underbelly, leaving him more vulnerable than the numbers might suggest.
The New York real estate mogul and reality television star paces the field of Republican presidential candidates nationally, garnering an average of 35.1 in the Huffington Post polling tracker. Rounding out the top four candidates are retired pediatric neurosurgeon Ben Carson, with 13.9 percent and Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas, with 12.6 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively.
But use the site's custom filter to remove surveys conducted via the Internet, Interactive Voice Response, a combination of IVR and online and through automated telephone interviews, and the data looks significantly different. Using only polls conducted via interviews with live telephone operators, Trump's still commanding position in the national GOP average drops to 27.2 percent; Carson's number rises to 20.2 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Jeb will win, he is able to have 12 people in his meeting.
Just look at the numbers of people who turn out for Trump rallies!
General surveys do not "catch" specific groups in which a candidate will do far better (or worse) than would happen with the generic voter.
It is understated and most of the polls are only polling republican voters. There are yuuuuge numbers of democrats that will cross over for Trump!
Indies too and also those who either just changed their party affiliation, or just registered.
no offense but I reported your use of excrement synonym. Love you.
Don’t agree with you. You can’t say he is gaining and so what if he gets 4000 in Sarasota? Palin used to pull them in too.
Mr. Cruz will take him out soon.
True, I bet that those over 60 are much more inclined to vote for Trump, because, like him, they actually do remember how GREAT America used to be.
It seems more likely that people more freely admit their support for Trump with an autommated system.
Live interviewers presumably get an understatement of such rebel sentiment.
Much more likely that the polls are understating Trump’s support.
“Donald Trump’s lead in public opinion polling could have a soft underbelly, leaving him more vulnerable than the numbers might suggest.”
Or not. Especially when you consider that rank speculation doesn’t have quite the predictive value of the current set of polls, not matter how inaccurate they might be.
That really is the problem. Until pollsters figure out a consistent method of accurately polling the population under present conditions, they're a guess requiring a large grain of salt.
You are so right!
Unlike the average poster here, the average citizen in this country will offer the answer that leads to the path of least resistance.
Just look at how many times the average worker bites his/her tongue at work because they need their job.
How many times a parent will shut up and fume so their kids won’t be singled out for special attention, not the good kind, at school.
It has become second nature for too many people to hide their true feelings and especially political beliefs.
Easier to go along to get along.
Very sad.
I’ll take UNDERSTATING for $200, Captain :)
People that work show up at Trump rallies during the week. That is it’s own message.
Nothing else has worked, so I suppose the MSM has to give this one a try.
Does it look like any of the polling agencies favor Trump for president? I don’t think so. Not CNN, not Fox news, not NBC, not WSJ, not PPP, etc.
If anything the polling sample is usually less than 1000, so they can skew the poll easily. When Drudge & Time run a post-debate poll, there are 500,000+ respondents! Those are much more reliable polls. There are no push-pull qustions in Drudge polls. It is simply picking the winner.
The people at Trump’s rallies are just going there to make him feel good. They don’t really support him.
Most of Trumps supporters are extremely pissed of at govt and media.
I don’t picture many of them cooperating with pollsters and survey takers.
It will be interesting to see how Waterville Valley goes tonight - there’s a statewide ice warning, and it’s kind of remote.
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