Posted on 10/30/2015 12:17:06 PM PDT by BigEdLB
Carson and Trump Essentially Tied
(Excerpt) Read more at polling.reuters.com ...
Carson’s precipitous rise in the last week (8%) is smelly
Cruz or Paul are the only two that will downsize the government. Paul because he grew up listening to the theories, Cruz because he really believes in the rule of law, is very intelligent, and does not need the approval of the PTB or the media.
The last day of the sample showing Ben’s big jump only has 195 reapondents. 10/29 has 349, 10/28 has 407, 10/27 has 530. Actually, dates before 10/26 routinely have no samples less than 600. So, Reuters is playing with the sample data to fit their narrative that Ben is surging when he’s not. Even with the small sample sizes Trump is up 5. While it’s a fact that Ben is the solid #2, Reuters engaging in the same chicanery as the others. Small sample sizes, big margins of error and a narrative that this is tied when not. If you unfilter and just go by raw data it’s Trump 26-17.
Rooters?
I think they are saying tied because of margin of error which I believe is 5%.
If we are going to look at it that way Trump could also be at 39% and Carson at 24%.
So Marco Rubio is trailing “none of the above” huh? So much for all the crowing about his performance on Wednesday.
Oh stop. Just silly. Every poll out there has been internally conistent for months. Now out of the blue, after a terrible debate performance, Carson jumps 8? Don’t think so.
It is impossible Cruz at 2. El Yebe definitely could be at 2 but not Cruz.
Somebody’s playing with these numbers...
Carson is noway a front runner. He’s basically the anti-trump anti establlishment, but that’s it... folks who aren’t sold on but don’t like Trump and are angry with the establishment are with him, but he’s not going to be the nominee, and no way he’s gained 8 or 10 or 15 points nationally in the last week, this is just laughable.
Carson will fade, those backing him will move on to others, ... I see this down to 3 at most by Christmas/New Years... Rubio is picking up the GOPe mantle, Trump, and Cruz are the most likely to still be swinging by the end of the year at this point.
Since 16th Carson has supposedly climbed from 15.3% to 29.0%.
During that period Trump has supposedly climbed from 33% to 34%.
Other polls how Trump at 32% and Carson at 18%.
Carson has been on a book tour, not creating any street news.
Trump has been filling arenas with 5 to 14 thousand people.
On Drudge’s after debate poll, the people who frequent Drudge selected Carson by 3% and Trump by 50%.
While internet polls are easily gamed, the thing about the Drudge poll is that mostly Right leaning people show up there. Right leaning people may skew a poll wildly over the Left at a particular site, but they don’t skew against themselves on one site.
Carson can’t pull down 3% on Drudge while Trump pulls done 50%, and claim to have anything close to a match-up with Trump support with Conservatives.
Someone along the way, the pollsters in this nation have completely lost it.
There no chance at all Carson is anywhere near Trump. End of story...
Carson stumbled badly on Wed night so am feeling that the Rasmussen and You.gov polls more accurately reflect the truth. Trump is running 11-14 pts ahead of Carson.
Sadly Ted Cruz just can’t past 8%. I was thinking this thing would be a short 3 way race with Trump, Cruz and Rubio a distant third morphing into a Trump with Cruz trailing final race. Now I’m not sure.
Exactly, numbers are being manipulated to show a big Carson boost that doesn’t exist.
Yes, when I unfilter it comes out different....so they are messing around with the polls...in bed with Hillary no doubt, can’t be with ‘cry baby’ Bush, he’s toast...watch what they do with Rubio would be my next guess....
Cruz has issues, he can fire up the hard care base all day long, but he’s not a well liked guy, doesn’t have the personality of a Trump.. and has some very very difficult general election concerns.
Ideologically I love the guy, but I am hard pressed to see him winning the national election. Believe me, I’d love for him to, just not sold he can.
I think Trump, Cruz and Rubio are the most likely last 3 standing, as the GOPe realize Jeb is a dud, they will put their money behind Rubio and try to push him... I can assure them, that I won’t show up on election day for Rubio anymore than I would for Jeb, but that won’t matter they will push him anyway.
This is still Trumps race to lose, and I don’t see that changing.
You are right that polls are a snapshot in time. But You.gov poll has a very low MOE. Shows Trump way ahead of Carson. And as you say an average of multiple polls is a better yardstick. So far Trump is a reliable leader. I just don’t see how he loses at this point absent an alien abduction.
Rasmussen has Trump in front by 5 which with MOE it could be tied.
I don't either. I've got (blue caller) Democrat friends who are talking Trump. I've got Republican friends and relatives who are talking Trump.
But I've heard only one person mention Carson so far.
And no one likes Bush.
Thank you.
The last day of the sample showing Ben’s big jump only has 195 reapondents. 10/29 has 349, 10/28 has 407, 10/27 has 530. Actually, dates before 10/26 routinely have no samples less than 600.
So, Reuters is playing with the sample data to fit their narrative that Ben is surging when he’s not. Even with the small sample sizes Trump is up 5.
While it’s a fact that Ben is the solid #2, Reuters engaging in the same chicanery as the others. Small sample sizes, big margins of error and a narrative that this is tied when not.
If you unfilter and just go by raw data it’s Trump 26-17.
Thanks for the ping and for this detailed info, usafa92!!!
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