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Posted on 10/02/2015 11:32:47 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
It's possible, just possible, that the final battle to become the 2016 GOP standard-bearer will come down to a pair of first-generation Cuban-American, first-term senators. Yes, I'm talking about the same Republican Party that has proven so incompetent in reaching out to Hispanic voters that it followed up its 2012 post-mortem determination to get better at it by, arguably, getting worse. Not that a final showdown between Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida will necessarily help on that score, but more on that later.
How does this scenario play out? It starts with the assumption that the three current front-runners, according to RealClearPolitics' average of polls – former reality TV star Donald Trump (23.3 percent), neurosurgeon Ben Carson (16.3) and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (11.8) – will all fade.
There are good reasons to expect this both in general and specific to each candidate. Trump's have been repeated and recycled for months: He's an egomaniacal, serially insulting, loud-mouth and while that might not sink him in a GOP primary, his ideological incoherence and departures from standard Republican policy positions probably will. After being endlessly foretold since his announcement the great Trump decline appears to finally be under way: He still leads but his share of supporters has dropped from 30.6 percent on the night of the second debate to 23.3 percent, more than a 7 percentage point drop in two weeks. That is, as the man might say, yuuuuge.
Carson too, while presenting a contrastingly lower-key mien, has been a gaffe-machine, suggesting that prisons make convicts gay, comparing the U.S. to Nazi Germany....
(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...
In your wet dreams.
Jeb “taco” Bush at 4% today.
The writer of this piece needs to put down the crack pipe. Trump and Cruz aint getting out.
Still waiting on that “When Hillary fades..” article from our unbiased (read: biased) msm
No to the amnesty bitch Rubio.
Yup ....that is all Trump has accomplished in life.
Insanity of the press continues.
That’s a keeper. I’m stealing it.t
What Robert Schlesinger doesn’t take into account is that 25-30% of base will STAY HOME if Jeb! or Rubio is the nominee!
And then these same people will spend at least the next four years complaining and bitching about having a Dem president...
Sigh. Trump is just getting started and Ted can’t get to double digits anywhere.
When the noise from the bottom of the chart starts adding together; after some of the lower folks fall by the wayside; I wonder how the chart will then look?
Bad cop: Good cop!
There you have it in a nutshell.
The Donald has ALWAYS been an 'in-your-face' kinda guy; and these others have been 'get-along-go-along' types.
They are DESPARATELY trying to copy his style and play catchup!
We can SMELL a wannabe from our front porch!
Someone has to!
I could be YOU!!
Give ‘em a dollar and find out.
Give ‘em Two and DOUBLE your chances at winning!!!
You might have a looooooong wait.
Jeb Bush (R) 10%
Ben Carson (R) 12%
Chris Christie (R) 5%
Ted Cruz (R) 5%
Carly Fiorina (R) 8%
Jim Gilmore (R) 1%
Lindsey Graham (R) 0%
Mike Huckabee (R) 3%
Bobby Jindal (R) 1%
John Kasich (R) 1% George Pataki (R) 0%
Rand Paul (R) 7%
Marco Rubio (R) 7%
Rick Santorum (R) 2%
Donald Trump (R) 32%
Wouldn't vote 6%
No, it’s driven by past experience that may not be applicable in what’s turning out to be a very different type of election cycle.
Much as a lot of folks got blindsided by Obama’s win in 2012. Or with Obama’s win over Hillary in 2008.
History is that hot-burning early front runners represent a kind of “bad boy infatuation” situation, with the voters ultimately deciding to settle down with someone safer and more stable.
If thats the case, then Trump, Carson and Fiorino will burn out. Logically voters should turn to the safe establishment candidate, which is Bush.
But Bush is also damaged goods. So these analyses are at least taking that into account and saying that, having gotten over their infatuation with Trump et al, they’ll still want something different.
Which with Walker out of the race does leave Cruz and Rubio.
Which isn’t a bad thing, IMHO. You have the final two GOP contenders being young and Hispanic while the Dems have an old female WASP and two just as old, or older, White guys.
But again, thats speculation because it looks like Trump (at least) has staying power.
Jeb, yes.
I think I differ with you on Rubio. He does a major mea culpa on immigration and I think the base will grugingly support him.
Run a drug test on this Trump Deranged pseudo writer:
You do realize that people are on to you don’t you? You think your little posts are going to make a difference? They won’t. You are wasting your time.
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