Posted on 09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT by jimbo123
Fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver said that GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson have a “maybe about 5%” chance of winning the nomination on Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360.”
Silver put Trump’s and Carson’s chances of winning the nomination at “maybe about 5% each, somewhere around there.” Silver explained, “there are a of couple things to think about. One is that if you look back at history, you’ve never seen candidates like Donald Trump certainly, or Ben Carson win a party nomination, and secondly, if you look at the polling a lot of times, a candidate leading the polls now, mid-September didn’t win the nomination, didn’t even come close. So, if you look four years ago, Rick Perry was in the midst of a surge right now, and eight years ago on the Democratic side, you had Howard Dean — or 12 years ago, rather, Howard Dean was surging, Hillary Clinton was still way ahead of Barack Obama in 2008. Rudy Giuliani was leading the polls in 2008. I think people — there’s so much interest in this election, in this campaign, people forget that polls five months before Iowa, historically, have told you very, very little.”
-snip-
Silver added that an establishment candidate was “probably” going to be the nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Nate Silver On Missed UK Forecasts: We Flubbed The Margin Of Error
Data guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com tells NPR’s Scott Simon how all the forecasts, including his own, were so far off in predicting the results of this week’s British election.
He is right about 43.3 percent of the time. :)...He has gotten some things right and many things wrong...He is only slightly better then Dick Morris. I don’t give much credence to his percentages...
Trump will win. Trump will be the only one nominated at the convention. You have to win the primary in 8 states to be eligible to be nominated.
No candidate other than Trump is likely to do that. The other candidates are polling at 8% or less and trending down.
We will get Bush with Kasich as his vp. Soooooo screwed.
Jeb has 1% chance.
don’t like the guy but i believe he was also correct about the midterms last November...
Nate is comparing Rick Perry and Howard Dean to Donald Trump?
Thats a foolish comparison!
He thinks the people will just forgive and forget the backstabbing establishment GOP and vote for another RINO? Another foolish prediction!
“He knows how much a Bush name is political poison.”
Why the heck can’t Yeb and the rest of the Bush clan see this? Bush may get the nomination but he will never win the Presidency even with him trying to trick people by only using his first name.
In the past the candidates were all using different words to say the same thing...Not so now.
Don’t be hatin’ on Jeb!
He makes his own guacamole!
BTW, would you like to donate to his campaign by purchasing a guacamole bowl for only $75?
Jeb promises to not speak in English a good portion of the time while Columba will only speak in Spanish.
Viva la open borders!!
He may lean democrat, but I do think that his statistical analysis company and their results matter to him, so he tries to get it right.
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Disagree. Trump is just a reiteration of Ross Perot. He has no political gravitas, and while that is currently a huge bonus, it will ultimately be his exit ticket. Once Trump is gone - it'll be politics as usual.
I believe he's making assumptions for his model, and in this case I'd question those assumptions.
In other words, the fix is in.
He did. But not by much. per wiki...
On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year.[538 82] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate".[538 83] About two weeks later, the forecast showed the Republican chances of holding the majority down to 55 percent.[538 84]
But how many of those candidates who were leading 5 months before Iowa were filling stadiums? How many summer time debates had record viewership? How many were self funded celebrities?
Even if you don’t like Trump, his campaign frees up Millions of dollars from donors for all down ticket republican candidates.
Had a little more data then. He's gone from predicting the winning football team at half-time to projecting the winner from pre-season games.
Karl Rove must have been given marching orders to lose but to sell the Cheap Labor Express along the way.
Jeb truly is beyond stupid but my guess is, he still makes enough cash via the Cheap Labor Express that he doesn’t care.
As I’ve said, it appears the Bush’s are little more than cheap political whores who will gladly sell out Americans if it increases their respective kingdoms.
Not that this doesn’t apply to the DNC as well.
For Jeb to be so thick-headed, and for W. to triple-down on it, tells you there is quite a machine financing this thing.
They really couldn’t care less whether you or I have a job or starve to death. They also couldn’t care less whether any of us are victims of illegal crimes in various forms. And they’ve proven it, repeatedly.
Was anyone really excited about Perot?
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