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Nate Silver: Trump, Carson Have About 5% Chance Of Winning Gop Nomination
Breitbart ^ | 9/15/15 | IAN HANCHETT

Posted on 09/15/2015 9:51:24 AM PDT by jimbo123

Fivethirtyeight.com founder Nate Silver said that GOP presidential candidates Donald Trump and Dr. Ben Carson have a “maybe about 5%” chance of winning the nomination on Monday’s broadcast of CNN’s “AC360.”

Silver put Trump’s and Carson’s chances of winning the nomination at “maybe about 5% each, somewhere around there.” Silver explained, “there are a of couple things to think about. One is that if you look back at history, you’ve never seen candidates like Donald Trump certainly, or Ben Carson win a party nomination, and secondly, if you look at the polling a lot of times, a candidate leading the polls now, mid-September didn’t win the nomination, didn’t even come close. So, if you look four years ago, Rick Perry was in the midst of a surge right now, and eight years ago on the Democratic side, you had Howard Dean — or 12 years ago, rather, Howard Dean was surging, Hillary Clinton was still way ahead of Barack Obama in 2008. Rudy Giuliani was leading the polls in 2008. I think people — there’s so much interest in this election, in this campaign, people forget that polls five months before Iowa, historically, have told you very, very little.”

-snip-

Silver added that an establishment candidate was “probably” going to be the nominee.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; demagogicparty; election2016; howarddean; memebuilding; natesilver; newyork; pajamaboy; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; rickperry; rudygiuliani; trump; trump2016
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To: GunRunner

Nate Silver On Missed UK Forecasts: We Flubbed The Margin Of Error

Data guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com tells NPR’s Scott Simon how all the forecasts, including his own, were so far off in predicting the results of this week’s British election.

http://www.npr.org/2015/05/09/405415749/nate-silver-on-missed-uk-forecasts-we-flubbed-the-margin-of-error


21 posted on 09/15/2015 9:59:51 AM PDT by jimbo123
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To: Responsibility2nd

He is right about 43.3 percent of the time. :)...He has gotten some things right and many things wrong...He is only slightly better then Dick Morris. I don’t give much credence to his percentages...


22 posted on 09/15/2015 9:59:53 AM PDT by hobo1234
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To: Responsibility2nd; jimbo123

Trump will win. Trump will be the only one nominated at the convention. You have to win the primary in 8 states to be eligible to be nominated.

No candidate other than Trump is likely to do that. The other candidates are polling at 8% or less and trending down.


23 posted on 09/15/2015 10:00:21 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: jimbo123

We will get Bush with Kasich as his vp. Soooooo screwed.


24 posted on 09/15/2015 10:00:33 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Obama is everything Oklahoma is not.)
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To: jimbo123

I’m still backing Harold Stassen!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Stassen


25 posted on 09/15/2015 10:01:29 AM PDT by GreyFriar (Spearhead - 3rd Armored Division 75-78 & 83-87)
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To: jimbo123

Jeb has 1% chance.


26 posted on 09/15/2015 10:01:40 AM PDT by Mozilla
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To: Responsibility2nd

don’t like the guy but i believe he was also correct about the midterms last November...


27 posted on 09/15/2015 10:03:43 AM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: jimbo123

Nate is comparing Rick Perry and Howard Dean to Donald Trump?
Thats a foolish comparison!

He thinks the people will just forgive and forget the backstabbing establishment GOP and vote for another RINO? Another foolish prediction!


28 posted on 09/15/2015 10:04:12 AM PDT by rwoodward ("god, guns and more ammo")
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To: SaveFerris

“He knows how much a Bush name is political poison.”

Why the heck can’t Yeb and the rest of the Bush clan see this? Bush may get the nomination but he will never win the Presidency even with him trying to trick people by only using his first name.


29 posted on 09/15/2015 10:04:14 AM PDT by funfan
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To: BenLurkin

In the past the candidates were all using different words to say the same thing...Not so now.


30 posted on 09/15/2015 10:04:35 AM PDT by lewislynn (Meghan Kelley...#sand--Rosie, the Don was right-- Hillary, lipstick on a pig)
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To: Mozilla

Don’t be hatin’ on Jeb!

He makes his own guacamole!

BTW, would you like to donate to his campaign by purchasing a guacamole bowl for only $75?

Jeb promises to not speak in English a good portion of the time while Columba will only speak in Spanish.

Viva la open borders!!


31 posted on 09/15/2015 10:05:43 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: Responsibility2nd
Yes, Silver has a good track record, especially in presidential years where the low info voters come out. He underestimated the GOP wins in 2014 thought.

He may lean democrat, but I do think that his statistical analysis company and their results matter to him, so he tries to get it right.

32 posted on 09/15/2015 10:06:02 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: july4thfreedomfoundation
Will all the serious issues facing the country, this will not be a “typical” election cycle.

 

___________________________________________

 

Disagree. Trump is just a reiteration of Ross Perot. He has no political gravitas, and while that is currently a huge bonus, it will ultimately be his exit ticket. Once Trump is gone - it'll be politics as usual.

33 posted on 09/15/2015 10:06:03 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (With Great Freedom comes Great Responsibility)
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To: Responsibility2nd
Yes, he did.

I believe he's making assumptions for his model, and in this case I'd question those assumptions.

34 posted on 09/15/2015 10:06:16 AM PDT by gogeo (If you are Tea Party, the eGOP does not want you.)
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To: jimbo123

In other words, the fix is in.


35 posted on 09/15/2015 10:06:36 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: KC_Conspirator
He underestimated the GOP wins in 2014 thought.

 

He did. But not by much. per wiki...

2014 U.S. elections[edit]

On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year.[538 82] At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate".[538 83] About two weeks later, the forecast showed the Republican chances of holding the majority down to 55 percent.[538 84]

36 posted on 09/15/2015 10:08:02 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd (With Great Freedom comes Great Responsibility)
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To: jimbo123

But how many of those candidates who were leading 5 months before Iowa were filling stadiums? How many summer time debates had record viewership? How many were self funded celebrities?

Even if you don’t like Trump, his campaign frees up Millions of dollars from donors for all down ticket republican candidates.


37 posted on 09/15/2015 10:08:21 AM PDT by Rad_J
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To: Responsibility2nd
Wasn’t Nate Silver the one who nailed it - right down to the winning percentage - when he called the Obama/Romney race results?

Had a little more data then. He's gone from predicting the winning football team at half-time to projecting the winner from pre-season games.

38 posted on 09/15/2015 10:08:30 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: funfan

Karl Rove must have been given marching orders to lose but to sell the Cheap Labor Express along the way.

Jeb truly is beyond stupid but my guess is, he still makes enough cash via the Cheap Labor Express that he doesn’t care.

As I’ve said, it appears the Bush’s are little more than cheap political whores who will gladly sell out Americans if it increases their respective kingdoms.

Not that this doesn’t apply to the DNC as well.

For Jeb to be so thick-headed, and for W. to triple-down on it, tells you there is quite a machine financing this thing.

They really couldn’t care less whether you or I have a job or starve to death. They also couldn’t care less whether any of us are victims of illegal crimes in various forms. And they’ve proven it, repeatedly.


39 posted on 09/15/2015 10:09:18 AM PDT by SaveFerris (Be a blessing to a stranger today for some have entertained angels unaware)
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To: Responsibility2nd

Was anyone really excited about Perot?


40 posted on 09/15/2015 10:10:28 AM PDT by nclaurel
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