[KC_Conspirator]

Yes, Silver has a good track record, especially in presidential years where the low info voters come out. He underestimated the GOP wins in 2014 thought.

He may lean democrat, but I do think that his statistical analysis company and their results matter to him, so he tries to get it right.

[Responsibility2nd]

He underestimated the GOP wins in 2014 thought.

 

He did. But not by much. per wiki...

2014 U.S. elections[edit]

On September 3, 2014, FiveThirtyEight introduced its forecasts for each of the 36 U.S. Senate elections being contested that year.^{[538 82]} At that time, the Republican Party was given a 64 percent chance of holding a majority of the seats in the Senate after the election. However, FiveThirtyEight editor Nate Silver also remarked, "An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate".^{[538 83]} About two weeks later, the forecast showed the Republican chances of holding the majority down to 55 percent.^{[538 84]}