Posted on 10/31/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by Arthurio
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters.
Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9).
Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall.
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.
There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.
The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30.
Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/31/fox-news-poll-race-for-white-house-dead-heat/#ixzz2AuxJtsiO
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
Ailes should hire a new polling outfit.
Krauthamer in effect said the poll was crap. His parting words were more flowery, but that is what he meant
Almost makes you wonder if we’re kidding ourselves. I still don’t see how we’re that far off. I think these places are imploding.
There’s just no way Obama comes in at even 52% IMO.
I didn’t say Obama would win, but I did say he would be portrayed as a great savior and that all the polls would show the race tied by election day. And no matter how big Romney wins in Virginia or Ohio there will be hundreds of thousands of democrats hollering foul, saying they either couldn’t make it to the polls or that they couldn’t vote because of no electricity at the polling stations. This entire SOB will turn into cluster**** the day after the election and we’ll be lucky if we know who won by Jan. The dems will try everything in their power to stay in power. The hurricane was a gift to them.
It does make me wonder, but I don’t think prediction markets are oracles—rather I think the prices you see on places like Intrade largely reflect whatever passes for common knowledge at the time, and I doubt they’ve any special insight beyond that. I therefore urge skepticism in interpreting their results.
I also believe these places are vulnerable to their own self-reinforcing biases and echo chamber effects—you can see how Intrade’s forums exemplify this.
Though IEM in particular, if you check their price histories for past elections, has a good track-record of predicting final popular vote %s—right now they’ve got roughly 50/50 for Obama/Romney, and Romney’s been on a slight upswing trend it appears.
Explain then, please, 2010.
It all started with the apple.
Check out this link to see why many of the state polls, and some of the national polls are silly:
http://www.hughhewitt.com/blog/g/181c0976-0020-4f5b-9e60-b4c1350d2e96
Both of the interviews at this link show that the pollsters for these organizations are simply in the tank for the President and his party.
I figured that nationally, because the Dim machine can be very effective in cities, that there was a possibility of a D+4 turnout. Hey, if pubbies are sloppy and unenthused about supporting Romney (which I have heard ENDLESSLY on this forum), then it could happen.
Well, then I learned about the program in place for maximizing pubbie turnout that the Romney campaign has implemented. The Dim machine is about to get smoked on Tuesday.
If you are sincere about your concern, and wish to volunteer to help out the cause, I suggest you go to http://www.mittromney.com/ to sign up.
I thought these would follow the polls fairly closely. I guess the players aren’t limited to the U. S. though.
It seems like people would want to stay close to reality, to avoid a crackup.
Intrade and the other markets are not going to be right all the time:
They are also not so deep ($12 mil for U.S. President ) that they can’t be easily manipulated.
If it were easier and less costly to trade on them, I see a substantial money-making opportunity today.
Of course, there’s always the October Surprise...
Happy Halloween!
Cognitive bias?
Intrade:
The US Supreme Court to rule individual mandate unconstitutional before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013
Here is the deal.
If the RAT turnout advantage on election day is +5% or higher, they win. Many pollsters are projecting them to have at least that big an advantage. Some are as high as +8 or +9%. Again, if it happens, they win, and that is why the polls show them doing so well.
Most of us are highly skeptical that turnout advantage will actually materialize though. Consider that in the wave election in 2008, the RATs only had around a +7 advantage. They are not nearly as excited now as they were back then.
Consider also that GOP voters are shown to be much more highly motivated, and that Indies are currently favoring Romney and Ryan by close to double digits in most polls. Add it all together, and the numbers showing Obambi with a solid lead just don’t seem to add up.
If the RAT advantage on election day is 3 or 4 points, then the race is a tossup. If their advantage is less than that, or even a GOP advantage like Gallup predicts, Romney will win. Period.
I have always cautioned about not finding ourselves in a sealed echo chamber in which we only hear the polls we want to hear and discard the rest. No one knows what the “Chris Christie” effect might be and come this weekend (God forbid) if the independents were to swing back to Obama. Let’s see what Gallup comes up with on Friday but this FoxNews poll is disheartening to say the least.
Don’t know who does the FOXNEWS polling, but they have been screwed up for months.
???
What exactly is disheartening about this poll? I find it rather encouraging that Obama is sitting at 46% in yet another national poll, and that it once again finds Republicans far more certain to show up and vote.
If polls over the next few days do as I expect and show Obama pulling ahead due to his response to Sandy, then that will be disheartening, but even then we will have to see if the bounce has staying power or if it disappears just as quickly as it showed up.
I see nothing in this current poll to be disappointed about though. Tell me what I am missing.
Yeah, a hermetic information chamber is not desirable. Anytime I’ve glanced at DU I get creeped out because it’s obvious a large # of people there have poor reality testing. The preponderance of this at FR hasn’t been nearly as high IMO, but I think it’s understandable that the stakes of this election might elevate tendencies towards it given the nightmare that Obama is and all that he represents.
I don’t foresee much impact from a “Chris Christie” effect. I could be wrong, but my gut sense is that he doesn’t exert much sway among independent, and isn’t really an influential factor in the electorate’s choices.
Yeah, a hermetic information chamber is not desirable. Anytime I’ve glanced at DU I get creeped out because it’s obvious a large # of people there have poor reality testing. The preponderance of this at FR hasn’t been nearly as high IMO, but I think it’s understandable that the stakes of this election might elevate tendencies towards it given the nightmare that Obama is and all that he represents.
I don’t foresee much impact from a “Chris Christie effect”. I could be wrong, but my gut sense is that he doesn’t exert much sway among independents, and isn’t really an influential factor in the electorate’s choices.
Because the numbers don’t make sense. In many, if no most, Romney is leading by double digits in independents, yet Obama is leading overall? Does not compute.
Two reasons.
1. FoxNews is not Obama-biased and
2. FoxNews showed Romney in the lead in its prior poll
Two reasons.
1. FoxNews is not Obama-biased and
2. FoxNews showed Romney in the lead in its prior poll
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