Posted on 10/31/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by Arthurio
With less than a week before the election, the race for the White House is dead even: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney receive 46 percent each, according to a Fox News poll of likely voters.
Romney had a razor-thin 46-45 percent edge earlier this month, after the first presidential debate (October 7-9).
Interviews in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy were completed before Monday evening, when the hurricane made landfall.
Independents give the edge to Romney by seven percentage points (46-39 percent). That’s down from a 12-point advantage in early October.
There’s a gender gap in vote preference, as men back Romney by 51-42 percent, while women side with Obama by 50-42 percent.
The new Fox poll finds Obama under-performing compared to his 2008 exit poll numbers by 13 percentage points among independents, 9 points among white men, 6 points among women and 4 points among voters under age 30.
Among the subgroup of most interested voters, those who are “extremely” interested in the election, Romney leads Obama by 53-42 percent.
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/10/31/fox-news-poll-race-for-white-house-dead-heat/#ixzz2AuxJtsiO
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
There’s only one poll that matters and it’s just about to be taken.......a few good Freepers helping GOTV can ensure this is the drubbing this awful President deserves.
GOOD one, bro!
Wow! Posts 56, 58, and 59 are all great!
First of all, Romney is leading both nationally and in swing state polls conducted by the two most legitimate outfits (Gallup and Rasmussen).
Second, polls *ALWAYS* oversample Democrats. They have done this every presidential election and Obama’s margin should have been 9-10% in 2008 going by most polls. The reason people look to Rasmussen is because he was the most accurate last time around.
Third, the turnout models being used are either identical to 2008 (which isn’t happening) or even greater than 2008 (see above). The elections that have been held since that time are incredibly different (oh and by the way, the 2010 polls were way off also).
Fourth, the breakdowns of existing data tell a very different story than the final result. Romney is winning independents by a huge margin. Romney is leading in early voting. Romney is leading crossover votes. He is doing much better than Obama was doing in 2008 and he won by 7 points. The *only* possible way Obama can win is if the Democrat turnout is even greater than it was in 2008. Based on the results already reported, even the turnout model from 2008 will not be sufficient for Obama to win.
In 2012, I have no idea. I would wager that neither candidate will reach 300 EVs, and I have to chuckle at those here who have been stating for the past few weeks that this will be a landslide victory for Romney.
Last week, I was sensing Romney 52-47. Now, Romney 51-48. Not liking the direction this is going.
Intrade has Obama at 68.0% and Romney at 32.1% right now.
Republicans taking the White House, the Senate, and the House has been rated at about 19% the last few days.
I think there are some Intraders that are going to be rather surprised by next Wednesday.
Maybe I’m drunk, but I’m seeing fantastic post after fantastic post on this thread! Keep it up, gang!
LLS
They are going to say that they had to do what they did because they just wanted to be “sure”, but they are happy it turned out ok or some Such CYA bull.
The others are just concern trolls that will disappear until 2016.
True enough.
LOL, that’s the best kind of smiley!
Thanks, Tomkat.
Every poll will show thee race tied or the Kenyan up by a point heading into the election. That’s what happens when he’s hailed by the media as the daddy-in-chief during the Hurricane response. And it damn sure has not helped with Chris Christy hugging him for photo-ops. The lead story now on Christie is “former critic of Obama now praises him”.
A few days ago I predicted the media would turn this hurricane into a great victory for the communist and I was attacked many on these boards. But I didn’t think he would he helped by republicans. I smell a rat and the big fix coming. Get ready to hear loudmouth O’Reilly tout the Fox poll this afternoon and tell everyone Obama will probably end up winning the election.
Merely happy it turned out okay? I’m gonna be cathartically relieved if Ø loses.
I will vote for anyone who gives me federal money when the weather gets bad. /s
Look what starts to happen around 2010, if Obama was elected.
Because people here are sick of this little clique of morons that are good for nothing but falling to pieces.
Omg Obama is going to win because of the hurricane! The fix is in! Ooooh Deaaaaaar!! •faint•
That is what you guys sound like. You aren’t working phones volunteering, or anything other than watching CNN, watching media polls and crying defeat. Don’t think Romney is going to win? Then why are you here? What do you want us to do for you, sit in the corner and cry with you because you are weak?
Sorry but that ain’t happening.
These polls, every one of them, mix in a superheavy dose of Democrats over Republicans---and that does not resemble OH in the slightest, esp. after 2009.
| Candidate | PredictWise | Betfair | Intrade | IEM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barack Obama | 70.2 % | 72.5 % | 67.9 % | 65.3 % |
| Mitt Romney | 29.9 % | 27.6 % | 32.1 % | 35.2 % |
ref your first papagraph.
That is why the Dems are trying to change the demographics, they know once the euro white folks are in the minority then they will win every election.
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