Fear that Obama will win Ohio and therefore the election

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html ^

[bikerman]

Ohio has 270 electoral votes who would have thunk?? Aint over till the fat lady sings.

[dontreadthis]

question: on what basis do they know the results of early voting? is it an assumption based upon party affiliation? i’ll take that.

[SteveAustin]

At 12:15pm CST today Marquette University will release their final poll for the State of Wisconsin.

I do think this MU poll is reasonably well done. Should tell us more about where the race stands in Wisconsin.

As you noted, WI, IA and NH equal Ohio and could be a very plausible pathway for Romney if he loses Ohio.

Let me also add this piece about Romney’s second path. NH is 1% black, Iowa 3% black and Wisconsin is 6% black. Ohio is 12% black.

It is a plausible scenario that a percentage of white people are telling pollsters that they will vote for Barry, but once in the voting both will judge on performance and vote Romney.

I think in 2008 we saw an affirmative action effect. In 2012 we might see that Bradley effect.

[LS]

Yes, the ONLY thing we can actually count are registrations/requested ballots, but then the pollsters do "exit polls" (remember how reliable those were in 04?)

So we've only been analyzing the R/D differential, and assuming Is break 50/50 (not at all likely).

[dontreadthis]

does “registrations” refer to the party affiliation of people who actually did vote early?

[StAnDeliver]

Gallup	Final	2000	48%		46%
Rass	Final	2000	40%		49%
Natl	Bush	2000	47.9%	50,456,002	48.4%	50,999,897
Ohio	Bush	2000	50%	2,351,209	46.5%	2,186,190
Gallup	Final	2004	49%		49%
Rass	Final	2004	50.2%		48.5%
Natl	Bush	2004	50.7%	62,040,610	48.3%	59,028,444
Ohio	Bush	2004	50.8%	2,858,727	48.7%	2,739,952
Gallup	Final	2008	55%		44%
Rass	Final	2008	52%		46%
Natl	Bobo	2008	52.9%	69,456,897	45.7%	59,934,814
Ohio	Bobo	2008	51.5%	2,940,044	46.9%	2,677,820
Gallup	FnlWk	2012	51%		46%
Rass	FnlWk	2012	49%		47%

In Ohio, the GOP candidate consistently receives votes equal to, or greater than, his National popular vote.

< / argument >

[StAnDeliver]

"Indications = poll averages in swing states."

Nice to see a Freetard go down swinging with Nate "Kos Kid" Silver. Nice.

[LS]

Registrations refer to people who voted early or absentee who had an R or D next to their name.

[Numeros]

You’re looking at the outdated, invalid Fordham “Initial Report” which was compiled in the hours following the 2008 election, before all ballots had been tallied. It’s based on an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 point Obama lead. That estimate turned out to be wrong. Obama, in fact, won by 7.28 percent.

Fordham later released a complete analysis based on the official popular vote outcome. Eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen. This final report has been available since 2009, but conservatives keep trotting out the old, flawed “Initial Report.”

The FINAL Fordham report: http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008%20poll%20accuracy%20panagopoulos.pdf

[montag813]

Hurricane Sandy is a crippling blow for Romney. He is forced to stand down when he needs to be on a blistering attack in Ohio, shredding Obama and closing the deal. Now he is reduced to a stupid donation drive for a storm that no one will be even talking about a month from now, while the nation will be irrevocably damaged for generations if Obama wins. And what is most galling is how that fat gasbag Christie is showering Obama with praise merely for declaring a disaster area - something every president has done for decades. 6 days to go, and it looks like Mittmentum has been stopped cold.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Chick-Fil-A appreciation day was a proxy for going to the polling place and voting against Ubama.

None of the polls are taking that into account.

The "Anybody but Obama" vote is going to show up, big-time.

[cuban leaf]

This final report has been available since 2009, but conservatives keep trotting out the old, flawed “Initial Report.”

---

It’s probably because most google searches will get you the preliminary report. It’s how I found it a few months ago.

Also, there are lots of “summaries” people can find without having to go to your unsearchable PDF link.

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/analysis-most-accurate-polls-2008-presidential-election

Though that one is also a bit early.

And this one is later:

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/67204268/TIPP_accuracy_2008.pdf

On a side note, the IBD article above says IBD had predicted 7.2. which matched the Obama win, but the PDF you linked puts IBD at 6. I’m not sure which is correct.

[cuban leaf]

Without collumn headers, I’m not understanding your post.

[patriotspride]

As I watch this race, I am reminded of Secretariat.

---

Hopefully you are thinking of his most memorable victory, like I am.

[cuban leaf]

Hopefully you are thinking of his most memorable victory, like I am.

---

Nope. In that one he was ahead from the git-go.

In the others he was behind but exploded in the end.

As Romney is doing as I type this, and has been doing since the first debate.

[Numeros]

Every analysis shown in that NowPublic article is invalid.

The “Report Card” which shows Rasmussen with an A- grade is based on a 6.5 margin, 52.6 to 46.1. That, like the Fordham Initial Report, is wrong.

The last summary is based on a 6.6% margin, 52.7% to 46.1%. Also wrong.

The article does link to the IBD/TIPP summary. That analysis IS based on the correct popular vote numbers and, like the final Fordham report, shows eight pollsters more accurate than Rasmussen.

Real Clear Politics, like the final Fordham report, shows IBD with an 8-point spread, 52/44. That would put them in 6th place. But if they actually had a 7.2 spread as claimed, then IBD would be most accurate.

[emax]

And let me guess, all the polls more reliable than Rasmussen show Obama winning. Is that true ? Can anyone else here prove that Rasmussen still is the most reliable polling source ?

[emax]

Is Romney still aggressivly campaigning and getting more votes in OH ? Please tell me he is still actively on the trail and still isn’t standing down and playing the role of humanitarian. he can’t afford to be doing that right now at all. He is in the most important election in US history. He has to win, everything else comes second.

[cuban leaf]

It is interesting that I’ve been using that “old” one to beat up liberals for a month or so now, and it’s technically wrong, but nobody caught it. :-)

Also, it is almost impossible to find on the internet. Link after link points to the “early” report. But to be frank, what votes came in after the fact, can they even be trusted.

ON a side (and comical) note. Limbaugh, about an hour ago, was quoting the very figures we are discussing - from the early document.

[A.A. Cunningham]

Actual title: Ohio: Romney vs. Obama