You’re looking at the outdated, invalid Fordham “Initial Report” which was compiled in the hours following the 2008 election, before all ballots had been tallied. It’s based on an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 point Obama lead. That estimate turned out to be wrong. Obama, in fact, won by 7.28 percent.
Fordham later released a complete analysis based on the official popular vote outcome. Eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen. This final report has been available since 2009, but conservatives keep trotting out the old, flawed “Initial Report.”
The FINAL Fordham report: http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/2008%20poll%20accuracy%20panagopoulos.pdf
This final report has been available since 2009, but conservatives keep trotting out the old, flawed “Initial Report.”
It’s probably because most google searches will get you the preliminary report. It’s how I found it a few months ago.
Also, there are lots of “summaries” people can find without having to go to your unsearchable PDF link.
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/analysis-most-accurate-polls-2008-presidential-election
Though that one is also a bit early.
And this one is later:
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/67204268/TIPP_accuracy_2008.pdf
On a side note, the IBD article above says IBD had predicted 7.2. which matched the Obama win, but the PDF you linked puts IBD at 6. I’m not sure which is correct.