Posted on 10/30/2010 11:12:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
Our list of Vulnerable Democrats just keeps growing. We have added 4 more Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: MA-04, ME-01, MO-03 and TX-27.
We would like to congratulate Barney Frank for making it on to our Master List in this last week of the 2010 election season.
So we now have 110 seats in play - 103 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.
We also added OR-05 to our Tier 2 list that now has 8 Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time Vulnerable Dems that are our leading candiates for making it to the Master List in the closing week of this year's election season.
Freeper PJ Too has been generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.
We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago there estimate was 59. Today their estimate is 65 seats. That's a very nice trend.
Here is the current summary:
And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". There are likely to be a few changes in the works by Election Projection and Real Clear Politics. Sabato has made his call. Rothenberg, Cook and CQ Politics may still make a few updates. If there are any changes in the next few dasy we will update the charts to reflect these changes no later than Monday evening.
Here is the current tally of "Expert" updates:
And also worth noting:
Our index improved to +.035 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 4 new Dem seats which skews the index in favor of the Dems.
Worth noting: THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THE INDEX IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (103 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way it looks right now.
Some statistics about the Master List:
Running out of time for MA-05. It doesn't seem to be on anybody's radar screen. Do you know something we don't?
-PJ
That would be great, I.P.
I'm afraid I might have information overload and a sheet of paper and a sharpie to check them off as they fall would be excellent.
Okay so you understand why the covariance is important. Have some fun and read this article. It’s a sobering lesson,
Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=all
The problem with applying the central limit theorem is that even if the covariance is zero (in which case the CLT can still apply), you don’t have an estimate of the variation, only the mean. The sampling error that the pollsters report is an estimate of the uncertainty of the mean. It is not an estimate of the variation.
Note that there are TWO kinds of statements that the pollsters make. One is an estimate of how individual races will go. The second is the total number of seats that will turn over. Each estimate requires TWO different models with different, proprietary, assumptions. You are mixing apples and oranges.
Thanks for the ping!
Thanks again for this really well-done aggregation project.
What the pollsters are telling us is, if the election were held today this would be the result, with a range of error around each candidate's result. If the result that they publish is really a mean of repeated sampling, with some error of the location of the mean represented by the margin of error, so be it. All I care about is that this is the expert's prediction of the result if the election were held today. I take their predictions, and use the margin of error around that prediction to create a probability of the leader actually winning. That is all.
I don't think I'm mixing apples and oranges.
-PJ
Great job! Thank you.
will try and remember to lend a hand and freepmail you with results...thanks
BUMP
It’s childish responses like that which encourage me to bust your chops. I tried to be helpful in my last post. My mistake. Apparently you only got a sinking feeling realization that you try to cover up with bravado.
If I flip a coin, you guess heads and the coin lands heads, it doesn’t change the fact that you were guessing. At best, a child would insist that they “knew” the coin would land heads. At worse, a liar would say he “knew” the coin would land heads.
It’s not your misunderstanding which bothers me. It’s the fact that you’re deliberately prey on the innocent by using the authority of numbers to state your opinion.
My two cents worth—
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D
Heavy Republican district. Big turnout will mean victory for Palin endorsed Martha Roby
AR 1 Open D
Republican Crawford will win easily.
AR 2 Open D
Should be another open seat Republican victory.
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick
Democrats will have a hard time in AZ this year. The lawsuit and reporting AZ to the UN Human Rights Commission will resound in every race. Even AZ4, Ed Pastor’s seat might not be a lock for dems. Republican Paul Gosar will win here, another Palin pick.
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell
Republican Dave Schweikert wins this one.
AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva
Grijalva advocated a boycott of his own state over the immigration law. In a fair election,Palin endorsed Ruth McClung wins. Let’s see what happens.
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords
This race is very close. I think Jesse Kelly will win due to a general rejection of democrats in AZ.
CA 3 Dan Lungren
Republican seat. Republican wins.
CA 11 Jerry McNerney
David Harmer has been leading in polls. Healthcare vote may have sealed McNerney’s fate.
WATCH — CA18 Dennis Cardoza
Mike Berryhill has not been a great candidate, but this is the other district held by a democrat where the water was turned off. Berryhill should be way back in the polls, but he has been from 2 to 8 points down and Cardoza has been running hit ads. An upset could happen.
CA 20 Jim Costa
This district had water to its farmers cut off by dems. Should be an easy win for Andy Vidak.
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez
This seat will be won by turnout and close scrutiny. If latinos vote, Sanchez wins. If white and Vietnamese vote heavily, Van Tran wins. If the voting isn’t carefully watched, Sanchez wins. (B-1 Bob Dornan’s old district)
WATCH——— CA51 Bob Filner
“Gunny Pop” Nick Popaditch is running an inspired race against the old progressive caucus member Filner. No polls here. Lots of action on the ground for Nick.
CO 3 John Salazar
Scott Tipton wins.
CO 4 Betsy Markey
Should be an easy win for Palin endorsed Cory Garner
CO 7 Ed Perlmutter
A tough race for Palin endorsed Ryan Frazier. A wave for Tancredo might put him over the top but it appears Perlmutter may be re-elected.
CT 4 Jim Himes
If Dan Debicella wins, it will be an early indication of a very big wave. Looks like Himes at this point although a very recent poll had Debicella up by two points.
CT 5 Christopher Murphy
This district is rated D+2 by Cook, so any small wave will make Caliguiri the winner, which I predict.
DE AL Open R
Democrat Carney should win over conservative Urquhart, but if Christine O’Donnell manages to pull out a victory in the Senate race, Glen could have a chance.
FL 2 Allen Boyd
Steve Southerland should win this seat.
FL 8 Alan Grayson
Outrageous Grayson will be defeated by Dan Webster.
FL 22 Ron Kline
Democrats are going all out to save this seat and keep Allen West out of Congress. West will prevail.
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas
Dems have already given up on saving this one.
FL 25 Open R
Republican David Rivera will keep this seat in the party.
GA 2 Sanford Bishop
Mike Keown should win this in what will be a sweep by Republicans of the south.
GA 8 Jim Marshall
No problems for Austin Scott on this one in a Republican district.
HI 1 Charles Djou
By all rights, Republicans should lose this race, but voters seem to be inclined to give recently elected Djou a chance.
more later....
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-Apr-10 | 199 | 204.77 | 210 | 0.18% | 26 |
16-Apr-10 | 199 | 205.09 | 211 | 0.22% | 26 |
22-Apr-10 | 200 | 205.28 | 211 | 0.37% | 26 |
01-May-10 | 201 | 206.22 | 212 | 0.73% | 27 |
08-May-10 | 201 | 206.33 | 212 | 0.66% | 27 |
19-Jun-10 | 203 | 208.44 | 214 | 2.29% | 29 |
10-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.43% | 29 |
17-Jul-10 | 203 | 208.49 | 214 | 2.34% | 29 |
24-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.25 | 215 | 3.37% | 30 |
31-Jul-10 | 203 | 209.06 | 215 | 2.96% | 30 |
07-Aug-10 | 203 | 209.15 | 215 | 3.11% | 30 |
14-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.33 | 215 | 3.33% | 30 |
21-Aug-10 | 204 | 209.86 | 216 | 4.47% | 31 |
28-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.91 | 217 | 7.03% | 32 |
04-Sep-10 | 206 | 211.88 | 218 | 10.45% | 33 |
11-Sep-10 | 208 | 213.67 | 220 | 20.31% | 35 |
18-Sep-10 | 208 | 214.1 | 220 | 23.14% | 35 |
25-Sep-10 | 209 | 214.72 | 221 | 27.54% | 36 |
02-Oct-10 | 210 | 216.44 | 222 | 41.34% | 37 |
09-Oct-10 | 212 | 218.48 | 225 | 58.13% | 39 |
16-Oct-10 | 215 | 220.78 | 227 | 75.42% | 42 |
23-Oct-10 | 217 | 223.28 | 229 | 88.59% | 44 |
30-Oct-10 | 220 | 226.71 | 233 | 97.00% | 48 |
Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.
This week, the polls cover 79% of the 110 races being tracked. 87 polls are being used out of 99 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 88%.
Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP House Seats P10 |
GOP House Seats EV |
GOP House Seats P90 |
Probability of 218 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
31-Jul-10 | 207 | 211.93 | 217 | 8.43% | 33 |
07-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.66 | 216 | 4.51% | 32 |
14-Aug-10 | 205 | 210.56 | 216 | 4.44% | 32 |
21-Aug-10 | 208 | 212.88 | 218 | 11.83% | 34 |
28-Aug-10 | 211 | 216.78 | 220 | 42.58% | 38 |
04-Sep-10 | 213 | 217.53 | 222 | 50.40% | 39 |
11-Sep-10 | 214 | 219.05 | 224 | 66.39% | 40 |
18-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.54 | 223 | 62.30% | 40 |
25-Sep-10 | 214 | 218.46 | 223 | 61.17% | 39 |
02-Oct-10 | 217 | 220.83 | 225 | 83.86% | 42 |
09-Oct-10 | 219 | 223.48 | 228 | 96.15% | 44 |
16-Oct-10 | 222 | 225.93 | 230 | 99.33% | 47 |
23-Oct-10 | 224 | 228.38 | 233 | 99.94% | 49 |
30-Oct-10 | 227 | 231.29 | 236 | 100.00% | 52 |
And in the Senate...
This final week has brought little change from recent weeks.
In California, Carly Fiorina continues to trail Barbara Boxer, with Boxer gaining an addition 1% over Fiorina. In Colorado, Ken Buck makes back 2% on his lead over Michael Bennet. In Connecticut, Linda MacMahon falls out of the margin of error again. In Illinois, Mark Kirk sustains his 4% lead over Alexi Giannioulias. In Nevada, Sharron Angle edges ahead of Harry Reid with an additional 1% gain. In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte pulls safely beyond the margin of error over Paul Hodes. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomy sustains his 4% lead over Joe Sestak. In Washington, Dino Rossi returns to a 1% lead over Patty Murray. In West Virginia, John Raese trails Joe Manchin again, giving up a 7% lead. In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson sustains his 7% lead over Russ Feingold.
Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:
Week | GOP Senate Seats P10 |
GOP Senate Seats EV |
GOP Senate Seats P90 |
Probability of 51 |
GOP Gain |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
17-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.84 | 50 | 6.95% | 7 |
24-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.95 | 50 | 7.69% | 7 |
31-Jul-10 | 47 | 48.18 | 50 | 1.29% | 7 |
07-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.13 | 50 | 1.46% | 7 |
14-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.46 | 50 | 2.92% | 7 |
21-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.69 | 50 | 3.05% | 7 |
28-Aug-10 | 47 | 48.86 | 50 | 5.88% | 7 |
04-Sep-10 | 48 | 49.21 | 51 | 14.19% | 8 |
11-Sep-10 | 49 | 50.08 | 52 | 37.67% | 9 |
18-Sep-10 | 48 | 48.95 | 50 | 3.67% | 7 |
25-Sep-10 | 47 | 48.35 | 49 | 0.30% | 7 |
02-Oct-10 | 48 | 49.7 | 51 | 21.47% | 8 |
09-Oct-10 | 50 | 50.55 | 51 | 58.69% | 9 |
16-Oct-10 | 49 | 50.08 | 51 | 35.48% | 9 |
23-Oct-10 | 48 | 49.7 | 51 | 21.70% | 8 |
30-Oct-10 | 48 | 49.5 | 51 | 14.19% | 8 |
-PJ
You flip a coin, I guess heads because I know it's a 50-50 probability.
But I'm not "guessing" when a pollster says that candidate A is leading candidate B by 3% with a 4% margin of error. My model, and my equation that fits the model, tells me that a 3% lead with a 4% MOE is equivalent to the leader winning 80.4% of the time.
Perhaps that is the part that you are not understanding.
-PJ
just can't see WA voting an R in there right nowIf they don't vote R this year they never will.
Do you have any info about the OR race of DeFazio vs Art Robinson? I heard they were neck and neck but don’t get the local paper and don’t believe it anyway since its editorials are all liberal trash.
DeFazio has been truly thuglike during this campaign. I live in SW OR and see at least 25 or 35 Robinson signs to DeFazio. Maybe even bigger margien. And 0thugga won this county.
That said, I can't see how a perennial swing district like KY-3 doesn't make the list.
It's on our Tier 2 list. Been there a long time. It just didn't jump onto the radar screens of most of our "Experts".
Looking at the plot which just keeps going up makes one wonder if the estimate that is projected by the "Experts" plus the polls is still lagging behind the reality on the ground. One would have expected a flattening of the curve as is the case with the Senate estimate.
Are the "Experts" still running well behind the trend?
Another explanation is the possibility that there are just too many Toss-Ups in the mix. A toss-up is simply an "Expert" refusing to go on the record - a cop out so to speak. To their credit both Sabato and Election Projection do not have any un-called races on their lists. In fact Election Projection doesn't even have a Toss-Up category. Sabato eliminated the category in his final update. It will be interesting to see which of them is has the more accurate projection.
Just to be clear, I'm picking on the "Experts" and perhaps the pollsters but not the simulation which I think is excellent. The current projection of 52 seats is amazingly close to NYT/Silver at 53, Rasmussen at 55 and Sabato at 55 and those are well established pundits.
Anyone who wants to pick on this simulation needs to explain how it is so close to the projections by these well known sources.
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