Posted on 10/30/2010 11:12:27 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
Our list of Vulnerable Democrats just keeps growing. We have added 4 more Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: MA-04, ME-01, MO-03 and TX-27.
We would like to congratulate Barney Frank for making it on to our Master List in this last week of the 2010 election season.
So we now have 110 seats in play - 103 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.
We also added OR-05 to our Tier 2 list that now has 8 Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time Vulnerable Dems that are our leading candiates for making it to the Master List in the closing week of this year's election season.
Freeper PJ Too has been generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR. Note that these projections are updated each Saturday afternoon.
We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. Two weeks ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. A week ago there estimate was 59. Today their estimate is 65 seats. That's a very nice trend.
Here is the current summary:
And this was the biggest week ever on KHR for upgrades by our "Experts". There are likely to be a few changes in the works by Election Projection and Real Clear Politics. Sabato has made his call. Rothenberg, Cook and CQ Politics may still make a few updates. If there are any changes in the next few dasy we will update the charts to reflect these changes no later than Monday evening.
Here is the current tally of "Expert" updates:
And also worth noting:
Our index improved to +.035 from last weeks -.068 even with the addition of 4 new Dem seats which skews the index in favor of the Dems.
Worth noting: THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE HAVE HAD THE INDEX IN POSITIVE TERRITORY. What does that mean? It means that the assessment of our Experts is that the full list of 112 seats in play (103 Dems and 7 Republicans) tilts GOP on the average. We don't like to brag but we pointed out months ago that if our index reached positive values then we were looking at a huge Republican victory in November and that's the way it looks right now.
Some statistics about the Master List:
District | Incumbent | Party | Average | Avg. | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | District | ||
AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | AL | 2 |
AR | 1 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | AR | 1 |
AR | 2 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.2 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | AR | 2 |
AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | AZ | 1 |
AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | AZ | 5 |
AZ | 7 | Raúl Grijalva | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.8 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | AZ | 7 |
AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 |
CA | 3 | Dan Lungren | Incumbent R | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | CA | 3 |
CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | CA | 11 |
CA | 20 | Jim Costa | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans D | Leans R | CA | 20 |
CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | CA | 47 |
CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | CO | 3 |
CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.5 | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | CO | 4 |
CO | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.7 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | CO | 7 |
CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | CT | 4 |
CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | CT | 5 |
DE | AL | Open R | Open R | Leans D | -1.5 | Leans D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Leans D | Leans D | DE | AL |
FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.5 | Leans R | Leans R | Safe R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | FL | 2 |
FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | FL | 8 |
FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | FL | 22 |
FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.5 | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | FL | 24 |
FL | 25 | Open R | Open R | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | FL | 25 |
GA | 2 | Sanford Bishop | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | GA | 2 |
GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.0 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | GA | 8 |
HI | 1 | Charles Djou | Incumbent R | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | HI | 1 |
IA | 1 | Bruce Braley | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | IA | 1 |
IA | 2 | Dave Loebsack | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.7 | Likely D | Leans D | Safe D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | IA | 2 |
IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Likely D | Leans D | IA | 3 |
ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.2 | Leans R | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | ID | 1 |
IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.3 | Likely D | Safe D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | IL | 8 |
IL | 10 | Open R | Open R | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | IL | 10 |
IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Likely R | 1.8 | Leans R | Likely R | Safe R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | IL | 11 |
IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | IL | 14 |
IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | IL | 17 |
IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | IN | 2 |
IN | 8 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 1.8 | Leans R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | IN | 8 |
IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | IN | 9 |
KS | 3 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.2 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | KS | 3 |
KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | 6 | 0 |
LA | 2 | Joseph Cao | Incumbent R | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | LA | 2 |
LA | 3 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.3 | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | LA | 3 |
MA | 4 | Barney Frank | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Safe D | Leans D | MA | 4 |
MA | 10 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | MA | 10 |
MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.0 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | MD | 1 |
ME | 1 | Chellie Pingree | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.0 | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Safe D | Toss-Up | ME | 1 |
MI | 1 | Open D | Leans R | 1.0 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | MI | 1 | |
MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | MI | 7 |
MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Leans D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | MI | 9 |
MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.3 | Leans D | Leans D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | MN | 1 |
MN | 8 | Jim Oberstar | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Safe D | Toss-Up | MN | 8 |
MO | 3 | Russ Carnahan | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | MO | 3 |
MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | MO | 4 |
MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | MS | 1 |
MS | 4 | Gene Taylor | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Safe D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | MS | 4 |
NC | 2 | Bob Etheridge | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NC | 2 |
NC | 7 | Mike McIntyre | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NC | 7 |
NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans D | Leans R | NC | 8 |
NC | 11 | Heath Shuler | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.5 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | NC | 11 |
ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | ND | AL |
NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.3 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | NH | 1 |
NH | 2 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.2 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans D | NH | 2 |
NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Leans D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NJ | 3 |
NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans D | NM | 1 |
NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | NM | 2 |
NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NV | 3 |
NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Likely D | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NY | 1 |
NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.2 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | NY | 13 |
NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NY | 19 |
NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NY | 20 |
NY | 22 | Maurice Hinchey | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Safe D | Leans D | NY | 22 |
NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | NY | 23 |
NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.3 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | NY | 24 |
NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Toss-Up | NY | 25 |
NY | 29 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.3 | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | NY | 29 |
OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Leans D | Likely R | Leans R | OH | 1 |
OH | 6 | Charlie Wilson | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | -0.5 | Leans D | Safe D | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | OH | 6 |
OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Likely D | Leans D | OH | 13 |
OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Likely R | 1.7 | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | OH | 15 |
OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | OH | 16 |
OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans R | OH | 18 |
OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.0 | Leans D | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | OR | 5 |
PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.5 | Leans R | Likely R | Mod R | Leans R | Likely R | Leans R | PA | 3 |
PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Likely D | -1.7 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | PA | 4 |
PA | 7 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | PA | 7 |
PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | PA | 8 |
PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans D | Toss-Up | Leans R | PA | 10 |
PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Leans R | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | PA | 11 |
PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | PA | 12 |
PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.2 | Likely D | Likely D | Safe D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | PA | 17 |
RI | 1 | Open D | Open D | Leans D | -1.2 | Likely D | Likely D | Weak D | Leans D | Leans D | Toss-Up | RI | 1 |
SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Leans R | Leans R | SC | 5 |
SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.5 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | SD | AL |
TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | TN | 4 |
TN | 6 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.3 | Likely R | Safe R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | TN | 6 |
TN | 8 | Open D | Open D | Likely R | 2.2 | Likely R | Likely R | Safe R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | TN | 8 |
TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Likely R | 1.8 | Leans R | Likely R | Safe R | Leans R | Likely R | Likely R | TX | 17 |
TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | TX | 23 |
TX | 27 | Solomon Ortiz | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.0 | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | TX | 27 |
VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | VA | 2 |
VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Leans R | VA | 5 |
VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | VA | 9 |
VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | VA | 11 |
WA | 2 | Rick Larsen | Incumbent D | Leans D | -0.7 | Leans D | Leans D | Weak D | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | WA | 2 |
WA | 3 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 0.8 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | WA | 3 |
WA | 8 | Dave Reichert | Incumbent R | Leans R | 1.5 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Likely R | Likely R | Leans R | WA | 8 |
WI | 3 | Ron Kind | Incumbent D | Leans D | -1.3 | Likely D | Leans D | Weak D | Leans D | Likely D | Leans D | WI | 3 |
WI | 7 | Open D | Open D | Leans R | 0.7 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Mod R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Leans R | WI | 7 |
WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Leans R | 1.2 | Leans R | Leans R | Mod R | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | WI | 8 |
WV | 1 | Open D | Open D | Toss-Up | 0.3 | Leans R | Toss-Up | Weak R | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | WV | 1 |
WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Incumbent D | Likely D | -2.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Mod D | Likely D | Safe D | Leans D | WV | 3 |
District | Average | Avg. | Sabato | CQP | EP.com | Cook | Rothenberg | RCP | District | ||||
Average | Toss-Up | 0.035 | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Toss-Up | Average | ||||
Updated | 30-Oct-10 | -0.037 | -0.250 | 0.407 | -0.046 | -0.139 | 0.370 | Updated | |||||
Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | ||||||||||||
Rating | |||||||||||||
From | To | ||||||||||||
Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | |||||||||||
Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | |||||||||||
Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | |||||||||||
Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | |||||||||||
Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | |||||||||||
Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | |||||||||||
Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | |||||||||||
Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 |
Please add MA-5 Golnik (R) vs Tsongas (D)to this list.
Thanks much.
60-70 in the House and 7-9 in the Senate. With hopefully both Reid and Boxer going down! Would love to see Rossi in WA (but just can't see WA voting an R in there right now).
Rank | District | Democrat | Seat | Republican | Avg. | Experts | District | ||
1 | LA | 3 | Ravi Sangisetty | Open D | Jeff Landry | 2.3 | Likely R | LA | 3 |
2 | NY | 29 | Mathew Zeller | Open D | Tom Reed | 2.3 | Likely R | NY | 29 |
3 | TN | 6 | Brett Carter | Open D | Diane Black | 2.3 | Likely R | TN | 6 |
4 | AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | 2.2 | Likely R | AR | 2 |
5 | KS | 3 | Stephene Moore | Open D | Kevin Yoder | 2.2 | Likely R | KS | 3 |
6 | TN | 8 | Roy Herron | Open D | Stephen Fincher | 2.2 | Likely R | TN | 8 |
7 | IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | 1.8 | Likely R | IL | 11 |
8 | IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | 1.8 | Likely R | IN | 8 |
9 | TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | 1.8 | Likely R | TX | 17 |
10 | OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | 1.7 | Likely R | OH | 15 |
11 | CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | 1.5 | Leans R | CO | 4 |
12 | FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Steve Southerland | 1.5 | Leans R | FL | 2 |
13 | FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | 1.5 | Leans R | FL | 24 |
14 | PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | 1.5 | Leans R | PA | 3 |
15 | WA | 8 | Suzan DelBene | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | 1.5 | Leans R | WA | 8 |
16 | FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | 1.3 | Leans R | FL | 8 |
17 | NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | 1.3 | Leans R | NH | 1 |
18 | AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Paul Gosar | 1.2 | Leans R | AZ | 1 |
19 | CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | 1.2 | Leans R | CA | 3 |
20 | FL | 25 | Joe Garcia | Open R | David Rivera | 1.2 | Leans R | FL | 25 |
21 | OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | 1.2 | Leans R | OH | 1 |
22 | WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Reid Ribble | 1.2 | Leans R | WI | 8 |
23 | GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | 1.0 | Leans R | GA | 8 |
24 | MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | 1.0 | Leans R | MD | 1 |
25 | MI | 1 | Gary McDowell | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | 1.0 | Leans R | MI | 1 |
26 | NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | 0.8 | Leans R | NM | 2 |
27 | SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | 0.8 | Leans R | SC | 5 |
28 | VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | 0.8 | Leans R | VA | 2 |
29 | VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | 0.8 | Leans R | VA | 5 |
30 | WA | 3 | Denny Heck | Open D | Jaime Herrera | 0.8 | Leans R | WA | 3 |
31 | AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | 0.7 | Leans R | AR | 1 |
32 | NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | 0.7 | Leans R | NV | 3 |
33 | OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | 0.7 | Leans R | OH | 16 |
34 | WI | 7 | Julie Lassa | Open D | Sean Duffy | 0.7 | Leans R | WI | 7 |
35 | AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | 0.5 | Toss-Up | AZ | 5 |
36 | CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | 0.5 | Toss-Up | CA | 11 |
37 | CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | 0.5 | Toss-Up | CO | 3 |
38 | IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | 0.5 | Toss-Up | IL | 14 |
39 | IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | 0.5 | Toss-Up | IN | 9 |
40 | MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | 0.5 | Toss-Up | MS | 1 |
41 | ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | 0.5 | Toss-Up | ND | AL |
42 | NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | 0.5 | Toss-Up | NY | 19 |
43 | NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | 0.5 | Toss-Up | NY | 20 |
44 | NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Matt Doheny | 0.5 | Toss-Up | NY | 23 |
45 | PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 7 |
46 | PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 8 |
47 | PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 10 |
48 | PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | 0.5 | Toss-Up | PA | 11 |
49 | SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | 0.5 | Toss-Up | SD | AL |
50 | HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | 0.3 | Toss-Up | HI | 1 |
51 | FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | 0.3 | Toss-Up | FL | 22 |
52 | IL | 17 | Phil Hare | Incumbent D | Bobby Schilling | 0.3 | Toss-Up | IL | 17 |
53 | MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | 0.3 | Toss-Up | MI | 7 |
54 | NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | 0.3 | Toss-Up | NC | 8 |
55 | NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | 0.3 | Toss-Up | NJ | 3 |
56 | OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | 0.3 | Toss-Up | OH | 18 |
57 | TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | 0.3 | Toss-Up | TN | 4 |
58 | TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Quico Canseco | 0.3 | Toss-Up | TX | 23 |
59 | WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | 0.3 | Toss-Up | WV | 1 |
60 | GA | 2 | Sanford Bishop | Incumbent D | Mike Keown | 0.2 | Toss-Up | GA | 2 |
61 | NH | 2 | Annie Kuster | Open D | Charlie Bass | 0.2 | Toss-Up | NH | 2 |
62 | AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jesse Kelly | 0.0 | Toss-Up | AZ | 8 |
63 | MA | 10 | William Keating | Open D | Jeff Perry | 0.0 | Toss-Up | MA | 10 |
64 | MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Vicky Hartzler | 0.0 | Toss-Up | MO | 4 |
65 | OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | 0.0 | Toss-Up | OR | 5 |
66 | CA | 20 | Jim Costa | Incumbent D | Andy Vidak | -0.2 | Toss-Up | CA | 20 |
67 | ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | -0.2 | Toss-Up | ID | 1 |
68 | IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | -0.3 | Toss-Up | IL | 10 |
69 | NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | -0.3 | Toss-Up | NY | 24 |
70 | AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | -0.5 | Toss-Up | AL | 2 |
71 | MS | 4 | Gene Taylor | Incumbent D | Steven Palazzo | -0.5 | Toss-Up | MS | 4 |
72 | NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | -0.5 | Toss-Up | NY | 1 |
73 | OH | 6 | Charlie Wilson | Incumbent D | Bill Johnson | -0.5 | Toss-Up | OH | 6 |
74 | PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | -0.7 | Leans D | PA | 12 |
75 | IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | -0.7 | Leans D | IN | 2 |
76 | KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | -0.7 | Leans D | KY | 6 |
77 | NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | -0.7 | Leans D | NM | 1 |
78 | VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | -0.7 | Leans D | VA | 9 |
79 | VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | -0.7 | Leans D | VA | 11 |
80 | WA | 2 | Rick Larsen | Incumbent D | John Koster | -0.7 | Leans D | WA | 2 |
81 | AZ | 7 | Raúl Grijalva | Incumbent D | Ruth McClung | -0.8 | Leans D | AZ | 7 |
82 | CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | -1.0 | Leans D | CT | 4 |
83 | MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | -1.0 | Leans D | MI | 9 |
84 | NC | 2 | Bob Etheridge | Incumbent D | Renee Ellmers | -1.0 | Leans D | NC | 2 |
85 | CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | -1.2 | Leans D | CA | 47 |
86 | CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | -1.2 | Leans D | CT | 5 |
87 | IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | -1.2 | Leans D | IA | 3 |
88 | NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | -1.2 | Leans D | NY | 13 |
89 | RI | 1 | David Cicilline | Open D | John Loughlin | -1.2 | Leans D | RI | 1 |
90 | LA | 2 | Cedric Richmond | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | -1.3 | Leans D | LA | 2 |
91 | MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | -1.3 | Leans D | MN | 1 |
92 | NC | 7 | Mike McIntyre | Incumbent D | Ilario Pantano | -1.3 | Leans D | NC | 7 |
93 | NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | -1.3 | Leans D | NY | 25 |
94 | WI | 3 | Ron Kind | Incumbent D | Dan Kapanke | -1.3 | Leans D | WI | 3 |
95 | DE | AL | John Carney | Open R | Glen Urquhart | -1.5 | Leans D | DE | AL |
96 | NC | 11 | Heath Shuler | Incumbent D | Jeff Miller | -1.5 | Leans D | NC | 4 |
97 | CO | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | Incumbent D | Ryan Frazier | -1.7 | Likely D | CO | 7 |
98 | IA | 2 | Dave Loebsack | Incumbent D | Marianneette Miller Meeks | -1.7 | Likely D | IA | 2 |
99 | PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | -1.7 | Likely D | PA | 4 |
100 | IA | 1 | Bruce Braley | Incumbent D | Ben Lange | -1.8 | Likely D | IA | 1 |
101 | MN | 8 | Jim Oberstar | Incumbent D | Chip Cravaack | -1.8 | Likely D | MN | 8 |
102 | MO | 3 | Russ Carnahan | Incumbent D | Ed Martin | -1.8 | Likely D | MO | 3 |
103 | OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | -1.8 | Likely D | OH | 13 |
104 | MA | 4 | Barney Frank | Incumbent D | Sean Bielat | -2.0 | Likely D | MA | 4 |
105 | ME | 1 | Chellie Pingree | Incumbent D | Dean Scontras | -2.0 | Likely D | ME | 1 |
106 | NY | 22 | Maurice Hinchey | Incumbent D | George Phillips | -2.0 | Likely D | NY | 22 |
107 | TX | 27 | Solomon Ortiz | Incumbent D | R. Blake Farenthold | -2.0 | Likely D | TX | 27 |
108 | WV | 3 | Nick Rahall | Incumbent D | "Spike" Maynard | -2.0 | Likely D | WV | 3 |
109 | PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | -2.2 | Likely D | PA | 17 |
110 | IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | -2.3 | Likely D | IL | 8 |
http://www.keyhouseraces.com/content/master-list-ranking-races
The key to beating the 58 point spread is flipping the light blue and blue seats to red. Early results will come in from IN-2, IN-9, KY-6....
These are the races to watch and see if a WAVE will happen.
If we can get 65, that may pull the Senate seats over to where we get a majority there.
Well, FWIW, here’s MY final House prediction..GOP nets +72. I like the 70% rule...so 70% of 103 is 70..we lose 3 GOP seats..thats 67..but I’m adding 5 more because it’s gonna be a really big wave..
I predict we win at least 75% of the seats in play and hold the 7 Repub seats.
So .75 x 110 = 82.5 An 83 seat win as it stands now. ;-)
“KHR 50”
Well I’m glad to see you guys having SOME doubts about your ability to predict anything. :)
So what’s your affiliation and turnout model? :) :)
will you be updating this through the evening on Tuesday with official results?? that’d be great...
Thanks, I.P. I love these charts.
Slightly tangential, but I wonder what time of night we’ll get to see the LSM grudgingly concede that the GOP has gotten their 39 seats?
(Trying not to prematurely count chickens here.)
I'm hoping early results from the eastern part of the nation discourages dem voters in CA so they just stay home, resulting in a loss for Boxer and Brown!
I think the GOP holds 5 of the 7 GOP seats and wins 70% of the Dim seats in play. So I get 5 + .7*103 = 77 rounded.
I am not "predicting" anything. That is, I am not making guesses about turnout, or historical trends from past elections, or crossover impacts from one race to another.
Nor am I doing any statistical analysis. I am letting the pollsters and pundits do the statistical analysis. I am taking the RESULTS of their analysis and converting it to a probabilitistic analysis of the leader actually winning, using their outputs as my inputs.
I am leaving the "special sauce" to others and simply reporting the impacts of the numbers that THEY produce. This is about interpreting what the pundits are saying.
-PJ
Reporting Voter Fraud
The Republican Party has set up a National Hotline, which will be staffed with Attorneys to handle polling issues as well as possible voter fraud or intimidation.
1 - 888 - 775 - 8117. IF you even SUSPECT this is happening, PLEASE call for their free advice.
I'm going to give it a try. If I can get the Freeper community to post races that have been called one way or the other I will be able to do it.
I also hope to post a pdf file for the Master List and possibly the Tier 2 and just maybe a Longshot List for downloading and printing on Tuesday. If it works out I'll post the link on the Tuesday KeyHouseRaces thread.
You are making an implicit assumption that the central limit theorem applies and that the covariance of the distributions are zero, whether you realize it or not.
I’ve maintained 80 seats will be in serious play, I do not know if the GOP can pull off a 80 seat win on Tuesday evening as that requires many things to break perfectly in the GOP’s direction the way things broke in the Dhimmis direction 2008.
The movement of late breaking deciders to the GOP is exactly the final trend I have said should be looked for, when in doubt, throw the bums out.
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