[MontaniSemperLiberi]

“KHR 50”

Well I’m glad to see you guys having SOME doubts about your ability to predict anything. :)

So what’s your affiliation and turnout model? :) :)

[Political Junkie Too]

I don't know why I have to keep repeating myself, but let me be as clear as possible.

I am not "predicting" anything. That is, I am not making guesses about turnout, or historical trends from past elections, or crossover impacts from one race to another.

Nor am I doing any statistical analysis. I am letting the pollsters and pundits do the statistical analysis. I am taking the RESULTS of their analysis and converting it to a probabilitistic analysis of the leader actually winning, using their outputs as my inputs.

I am leaving the "special sauce" to others and simply reporting the impacts of the numbers that THEY produce. This is about interpreting what the pundits are saying.

-PJ