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I'm posting our "Experts" page this week. A huge sea of red showing the continuing movement of the House races in favor of the GOP.

District Incumbent Party Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up AL 2
AR 1 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AR 1
AR 2 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R AR 2
AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R AZ 1
AZ 5 Harold Mitchell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R AZ 5
AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva Incumbent D Leans D -0.8 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up AZ 7
AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up AZ 8
CA 3 Dan Lungren Incumbent R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R CA 3
CA 11 Jerry McNerney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R CA 11
CA 20 Jim Costa Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans D Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R CA 20
CA 47 Loretta Sanchez Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Leans D Leans D CA 47
CO 3 John Salazar Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R CO 3
CO 4 Betsy Markey Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R CO 4
CO 7 Ed Perlmutter Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Weak D Likely D Likely D Leans D CO 7
CT 4 Jim Himes Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up CT 4
CT 5 Christopher Murphy Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up CT 5
DE AL Open R Open R Leans D -1.5 Leans D Likely D Mod D Likely D Leans D Leans D DE AL
FL 2 Allen Boyd Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Safe R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 2
FL 8 Alan Grayson Incumbent D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 8
FL 22 Ron Klein Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R FL 22
FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R FL 24
FL 25 Open R Open R Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R FL 25
GA 2 Sanford Bishop Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up GA 2
GA 8 Jim Marshall Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R GA 8
HI 1 Charles Djou Incumbent R Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up HI 1
IA 1 Bruce Braley Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D IA 1
IA 2 Dave Loebsack Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Leans D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D IA 2
IA 3 Leonard Boswell Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Leans D Likely D Weak D Toss-Up Likely D Leans D IA 3
ID 1 Walter Minnick Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.2 Leans R Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ID 1
IL 8 Melissa Bean Incumbent D Likely D -2.3 Likely D Safe D Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D IL 8
IL 10 Open R Open R Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Leans D Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up IL 10
IL 11 Debbie Halvorson Incumbent D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Leans R Likely R Likely R IL 11
IL 14 Bill Foster Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 14
IL 17 Phil Hare Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IL 17
IN 2 Joe Donnelly Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up IN 2
IN 8 Open D Open D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Leans R IN 8
IN 9 Baron Hill Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R IN 9
KS 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R KS 3
KY 6 Ben Chandler Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up 6 0
LA 2 Joseph Cao Incumbent R Leans D -1.3 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D LA 2
LA 3 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R LA 3
MA 4 Barney Frank Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Leans D MA 4
MA 10 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MA 10
MD 1 Frank Kratovil Incumbent D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R MD 1
ME 1 Chellie Pingree Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up ME 1
MI 1 Open D Leans R 1.0 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R MI 1
MI 7 Mark Schauer Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MI 7
MI 9 Gary Peters Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Leans D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up MI 9
MN 1 Tim Walz Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Leans D Leans D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D MN 1
MN 8 Jim Oberstar Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Toss-Up MN 8
MO 3 Russ Carnahan Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D MO 3
MO 4 Ike Skelton Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MO 4
MS 1 Travis Childers Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R MS 1
MS 4 Gene Taylor Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Safe D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up MS 4
NC 2 Bob Etheridge Incumbent D Leans D -1.0 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NC 2
NC 7 Mike McIntyre Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up NC 7
NC 8 Larry Kissell Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans D Leans R NC 8
NC 11 Heath Shuler Incumbent D Leans D -1.5 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NC 11
ND AL Earl Pomeroy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up ND AL
NH 1 Carol Shea-Porter Incumbent D Leans R 1.3 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R NH 1
NH 2 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.2 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D NH 2
NJ 3 John Adler Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Leans D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NJ 3
NM 1 Martin Heinrich Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans D NM 1
NM 2 Harry Teague Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R NM 2
NV 3 Dina Titus Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NV 3
NY 1 Tim Bishop Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Likely D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 1
NY 13 Mike McMahon Incumbent D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 13
NY 19 John Hall Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 19
NY 20 Scott Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 20
NY 22 Maurice Hinchey Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Safe D Leans D Safe D Leans D NY 22
NY 23 Bill Owens Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R NY 23
NY 24 Mike Arcuri Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.3 Leans D Toss-Up Weak D Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up NY 24
NY 25 Dan Maffei Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Likely D Toss-Up NY 25
NY 29 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R NY 29
OH 1 Steve Driehaus Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans D Likely R Leans R OH 1
OH 6 Charlie Wilson Incumbent D Toss-Up -0.5 Leans D Safe D Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up OH 6
OH 13 Betty Sutton Incumbent D Likely D -1.8 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Likely D Leans D OH 13
OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy Incumbent D Likely R 1.7 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Likely R OH 15
OH 16 John Boccieri Incumbent D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R OH 16
OH 18 Zach Space Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R OH 18
OR 5 Kurt Schrader Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.0 Leans D Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up OR 5
PA 3 Kathleen Dahlkemper Incumbent D Leans R 1.5 Leans R Likely R Mod R Leans R Likely R Leans R PA 3
PA 4 Jason Altmire Incumbent D Likely D -1.7 Likely D Likely D Mod D Leans D Likely D Leans D PA 4
PA 7 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 7
PA 8 Patrick Murphy Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R PA 8
PA 10 Chris Carney Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans D Toss-Up Leans R PA 10
PA 11 Paul Kanjorski Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Leans R Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 11
PA 12 Mark Critz Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up PA 12
PA 17 Tim Holden Incumbent D Likely D -2.2 Likely D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Likely D PA 17
RI 1 Open D Open D Leans D -1.2 Likely D Likely D Weak D Leans D Leans D Toss-Up RI 1
SC 5 John Spratt Jr. Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Leans R Leans R SC 5
SD AL Stephanie Sandlin Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.5 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R SD AL
TN 4 Lincoln Davis Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up TN 4
TN 6 Open D Open D Likely R 2.3 Likely R Safe R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 6
TN 8 Open D Open D Likely R 2.2 Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R TN 8
TX 17 Chet Edwards Incumbent D Likely R 1.8 Leans R Likely R Safe R Leans R Likely R Likely R TX 17
TX 23 Ciro Rodriguez Incumbent D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up TX 23
TX 27 Solomon Ortiz Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Safe D Likely D Safe D Leans D Likely D Leans D TX 27
VA 2 Glenn Nye Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Leans R Leans R Leans R VA 2
VA 5 Tom Perriello Incumbent D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Leans R VA 5
VA 9 Rick Boucher Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Leans D Toss-Up Toss-Up VA 9
VA 11 Gerald Connolly Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up VA 11
WA 2 Rick Larsen Incumbent D Leans D -0.7 Leans D Leans D Weak D Toss-Up Leans D Toss-Up WA 2
WA 3 Open D Open D Leans R 0.8 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Toss-Up Toss-Up WA 3
WA 8 Dave Reichert Incumbent R Leans R 1.5 Leans R Leans R Mod R Likely R Likely R Leans R WA 8
WI 3 Ron Kind Incumbent D Leans D -1.3 Likely D Leans D Weak D Leans D Likely D Leans D WI 3
WI 7 Open D Open D Leans R 0.7 Leans R Toss-Up Mod R Toss-Up Toss-Up Leans R WI 7
WI 8 Steve Kagen Incumbent D Leans R 1.2 Leans R Leans R Mod R Leans R Leans R Leans R WI 8
WV 1 Open D Open D Toss-Up 0.3 Leans R Toss-Up Weak R Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up WV 1
WV 3 Nick Rahall Incumbent D Likely D -2.0 Likely D Likely D Mod D Likely D Safe D Leans D WV 3
District Average Avg. Sabato CQP EP.com Cook Rothenberg RCP District
Average Toss-Up 0.035 Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Toss-Up Average
Updated 30-Oct-10 -0.037 -0.250 0.407 -0.046 -0.139 0.370 Updated
Rating and Color Code Average Expert
Rating
From To
Safe D -3 -2.5
Likely D -2.5 -1.5
Leans D -1.5 -0.5
Toss-Up -0.5 0
Toss-Up 0 0.5
Leans R 0.5 1.5
Likely R 1.5 2.5
Safe R 2.5 3.5

1 posted on 10/30/2010 11:12:31 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: 100%FEDUP; 1010RD; 101voodoo; 1035rep; 2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten; 23 Everest; 2A Patriot; ...

2 posted on 10/30/2010 11:15:33 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: InterceptPoint

Please add MA-5 Golnik (R) vs Tsongas (D)to this list.


3 posted on 10/30/2010 11:19:16 AM PDT by NewEnglander
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To: InterceptPoint

http://www.keyhouseraces.com/content/master-list-ranking-races

The key to beating the 58 point spread is flipping the light blue and blue seats to red. Early results will come in from IN-2, IN-9, KY-6....

These are the races to watch and see if a WAVE will happen.


7 posted on 10/30/2010 11:28:25 AM PDT by Drango (NO-vember is payback for April 15th)
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To: InterceptPoint

“KHR 50”

Well I’m glad to see you guys having SOME doubts about your ability to predict anything. :)

So what’s your affiliation and turnout model? :) :)


11 posted on 10/30/2010 11:42:47 AM PDT by MontaniSemperLiberi (Moutaineers are Always Free)
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To: InterceptPoint

will you be updating this through the evening on Tuesday with official results?? that’d be great...


12 posted on 10/30/2010 11:54:43 AM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
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To: InterceptPoint

Reporting Voter Fraud

The Republican Party has set up a National Hotline, which will be staffed with Attorneys to handle polling issues as well as possible voter fraud or intimidation.
1 - 888 - 775 - 8117. IF you even SUSPECT this is happening, PLEASE call for their free advice.

http://www.resistnet.com/


17 posted on 10/30/2010 12:01:18 PM PDT by Mortrey (Impeach President Soros)
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To: InterceptPoint; Political Junkie Too

Thanks again for this really well-done aggregation project.


26 posted on 10/30/2010 12:42:23 PM PDT by Interesting Times (SwiftVets.com. WinterSoldier.com. ToSetTheRecordStraight.com.)
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To: InterceptPoint

My two cents worth—

AL 2 Bobby Bright Incumbent D
Heavy Republican district. Big turnout will mean victory for Palin endorsed Martha Roby

AR 1 Open D
Republican Crawford will win easily.

AR 2 Open D
Should be another open seat Republican victory.

AZ 1 Ann Kirkpatrick
Democrats will have a hard time in AZ this year. The lawsuit and reporting AZ to the UN Human Rights Commission will resound in every race. Even AZ4, Ed Pastor’s seat might not be a lock for dems. Republican Paul Gosar will win here, another Palin pick.

AZ 5 Harold Mitchell
Republican Dave Schweikert wins this one.

AZ 7 Raúl Grijalva
Grijalva advocated a boycott of his own state over the immigration law. In a fair election,Palin endorsed Ruth McClung wins. Let’s see what happens.

AZ 8 Gabrielle Giffords
This race is very close. I think Jesse Kelly will win due to a general rejection of democrats in AZ.
CA 3 Dan Lungren
Republican seat. Republican wins.

CA 11 Jerry McNerney
David Harmer has been leading in polls. Healthcare vote may have sealed McNerney’s fate.

WATCH — CA18 Dennis Cardoza
Mike Berryhill has not been a great candidate, but this is the other district held by a democrat where the water was turned off. Berryhill should be way back in the polls, but he has been from 2 to 8 points down and Cardoza has been running hit ads. An upset could happen.

CA 20 Jim Costa
This district had water to its farmers cut off by dems. Should be an easy win for Andy Vidak.

CA 47 Loretta Sanchez
This seat will be won by turnout and close scrutiny. If latinos vote, Sanchez wins. If white and Vietnamese vote heavily, Van Tran wins. If the voting isn’t carefully watched, Sanchez wins. (B-1 Bob Dornan’s old district)

WATCH——— CA51 Bob Filner
“Gunny Pop” Nick Popaditch is running an inspired race against the old progressive caucus member Filner. No polls here. Lots of action on the ground for Nick.

CO 3 John Salazar
Scott Tipton wins.

CO 4 Betsy Markey
Should be an easy win for Palin endorsed Cory Garner

CO 7 Ed Perlmutter
A tough race for Palin endorsed Ryan Frazier. A wave for Tancredo might put him over the top but it appears Perlmutter may be re-elected.

CT 4 Jim Himes
If Dan Debicella wins, it will be an early indication of a very big wave. Looks like Himes at this point although a very recent poll had Debicella up by two points.

CT 5 Christopher Murphy
This district is rated D+2 by Cook, so any small wave will make Caliguiri the winner, which I predict.
DE AL Open R
Democrat Carney should win over conservative Urquhart, but if Christine O’Donnell manages to pull out a victory in the Senate race, Glen could have a chance.
FL 2 Allen Boyd
Steve Southerland should win this seat.

FL 8 Alan Grayson
Outrageous Grayson will be defeated by Dan Webster.

FL 22 Ron Kline
Democrats are going all out to save this seat and keep Allen West out of Congress. West will prevail.

FL 24 Suzanne Kosmas
Dems have already given up on saving this one.

FL 25 Open R
Republican David Rivera will keep this seat in the party.
GA 2 Sanford Bishop
Mike Keown should win this in what will be a sweep by Republicans of the south.

GA 8 Jim Marshall
No problems for Austin Scott on this one in a Republican district.
HI 1 Charles Djou
By all rights, Republicans should lose this race, but voters seem to be inclined to give recently elected Djou a chance.

more later....


32 posted on 10/30/2010 1:30:24 PM PDT by excopconservative
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To: InterceptPoint
Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
09-Apr-10 199 204.77 210 0.18% 26
16-Apr-10 199 205.09 211 0.22% 26
22-Apr-10 200 205.28 211 0.37% 26
01-May-10 201 206.22 212 0.73% 27
08-May-10 201 206.33 212 0.66% 27
19-Jun-10 203 208.44 214 2.29% 29
10-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.43% 29
17-Jul-10 203 208.49 214 2.34% 29
24-Jul-10 203 209.25 215 3.37% 30
31-Jul-10 203 209.06 215 2.96% 30
07-Aug-10 203 209.15 215 3.11% 30
14-Aug-10 204 209.33 215 3.33% 30
21-Aug-10 204 209.86 216 4.47% 31
28-Aug-10 205 210.91 217 7.03% 32
04-Sep-10 206 211.88 218 10.45% 33
11-Sep-10 208 213.67 220 20.31% 35
18-Sep-10 208 214.1 220 23.14% 35
25-Sep-10 209 214.72 221 27.54% 36
02-Oct-10 210 216.44 222 41.34% 37
09-Oct-10 212 218.48 225 58.13% 39
16-Oct-10 215 220.78 227 75.42% 42
23-Oct-10 217 223.28 229 88.59% 44
30-Oct-10 220 226.71 233 97.00% 48

Alternatively, below is a model that uses the most recent poll instead of the expert assessment, when there is one. I "expire" the poll if it is greater than 60 days old and revert back to the expert assessment until a new poll is taken. If the trend is moving downward, I suspect it is because a poll expired and the expert asssessment is lagging public opinion.

This week, the polls cover 79% of the 110 races being tracked. 87 polls are being used out of 99 that were captured, for a poll utilization of 88%.

Using the expert ratings above and recent poll data, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
House
Seats
P10		 GOP
House
Seats
EV		 GOP
House
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 218		 GOP
Gain
31-Jul-10 207 211.93 217 8.43% 33
07-Aug-10 205 210.66 216 4.51% 32
14-Aug-10 205 210.56 216 4.44% 32
21-Aug-10 208 212.88 218 11.83% 34
28-Aug-10 211 216.78 220 42.58% 38
04-Sep-10 213 217.53 222 50.40% 39
11-Sep-10 214 219.05 224 66.39% 40
18-Sep-10 214 218.54 223 62.30% 40
25-Sep-10 214 218.46 223 61.17% 39
02-Oct-10 217 220.83 225 83.86% 42
09-Oct-10 219 223.48 228 96.15% 44
16-Oct-10 222 225.93 230 99.33% 47
23-Oct-10 224 228.38 233 99.94% 49
30-Oct-10 227 231.29 236 100.00% 52

And in the Senate...

This final week has brought little change from recent weeks.

In California, Carly Fiorina continues to trail Barbara Boxer, with Boxer gaining an addition 1% over Fiorina. In Colorado, Ken Buck makes back 2% on his lead over Michael Bennet. In Connecticut, Linda MacMahon falls out of the margin of error again. In Illinois, Mark Kirk sustains his 4% lead over Alexi Giannioulias. In Nevada, Sharron Angle edges ahead of Harry Reid with an additional 1% gain. In New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte pulls safely beyond the margin of error over Paul Hodes. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomy sustains his 4% lead over Joe Sestak. In Washington, Dino Rossi returns to a 1% lead over Patty Murray. In West Virginia, John Raese trails Joe Manchin again, giving up a 7% lead. In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson sustains his 7% lead over Russ Feingold.

Using the most recent Rasmussen polls, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

Week GOP
Senate
Seats
P10		 GOP
Senate
Seats
EV		 GOP
Senate
Seats
P90		 Probability
of 51		 GOP
Gain
17-Jul-10 47 48.84 50 6.95% 7
24-Jul-10 47 48.95 50 7.69% 7
31-Jul-10 47 48.18 50 1.29% 7
07-Aug-10 47 48.13 50 1.46% 7
14-Aug-10 47 48.46 50 2.92% 7
21-Aug-10 47 48.69 50 3.05% 7
28-Aug-10 47 48.86 50 5.88% 7
04-Sep-10 48 49.21 51 14.19% 8
11-Sep-10 49 50.08 52 37.67% 9
18-Sep-10 48 48.95 50 3.67% 7
25-Sep-10 47 48.35 49 0.30% 7
02-Oct-10 48 49.7 51 21.47% 8
09-Oct-10 50 50.55 51 58.69% 9
16-Oct-10 49 50.08 51 35.48% 9
23-Oct-10 48 49.7 51 21.70% 8
30-Oct-10 48 49.5 51 14.19% 8

-PJ

33 posted on 10/30/2010 1:35:48 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too ("Comprehensive" reform bills only end up as incomprehensible messes.)
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To: InterceptPoint
You are doing excellent work!

That said, I can't see how a perennial swing district like KY-3 doesn't make the list.

37 posted on 10/30/2010 2:44:22 PM PDT by rhinohunter (http://christine2010.com/)
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