[InterceptPoint]

[Quix]

Thanks much.

[SevenMinusOne]

Unless all the polls are wrong it seems 60+ in the House is going to happen! Unbelievable and wonderful! And if that is the case, Senate seats are going to have to move with it...meaning close Senate seats should go "R" as well.

60-70 in the House and 7-9 in the Senate. With hopefully both Reid and Boxer going down! Would love to see Rossi in WA (but just can't see WA voting an R in there right now).

[InterceptPoint]

Just for completeness, here is our ranked list of the 110 seats in play:

Rank	District		Democrat	Seat	Republican	Avg.	Experts	District
1	LA	3	Ravi Sangisetty	Open D	Jeff Landry	2.3	Likely R	LA	3
2	NY	29	Mathew Zeller	Open D	Tom Reed	2.3	Likely R	NY	29
3	TN	6	Brett Carter	Open D	Diane Black	2.3	Likely R	TN	6
4	AR	2	Joyce Elliott	Open D	Tim Griffin	2.2	Likely R	AR	2
5	KS	3	Stephene Moore	Open D	Kevin Yoder	2.2	Likely R	KS	3
6	TN	8	Roy Herron	Open D	Stephen Fincher	2.2	Likely R	TN	8
7	IL	11	Debbie Halvorson	Incumbent D	Adam Kinzinger	1.8	Likely R	IL	11
8	IN	8	W. Trent Van Haaften	Open D	Dr. Larry Bucshon	1.8	Likely R	IN	8
9	TX	17	Chet Edwards	Incumbent D	Bill Flores	1.8	Likely R	TX	17
10	OH	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	Incumbent D	Steve Stivers	1.7	Likely R	OH	15
11	CO	4	Betsy Markey	Incumbent D	Cory Gardner	1.5	Leans R	CO	4
12	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	1.5	Leans R	FL	2
13	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	1.5	Leans R	FL	24
14	PA	3	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Incumbent D	Mike Kelly	1.5	Leans R	PA	3
15	WA	8	Suzan DelBene	Incumbent R	Dave Reichert	1.5	Leans R	WA	8
16	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	1.3	Leans R	FL	8
17	NH	1	Carol Shea-Porter	Incumbent D	Frank Guinta	1.3	Leans R	NH	1
18	AZ	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	Incumbent D	Paul Gosar	1.2	Leans R	AZ	1
19	CA	3	Ami Bera	Incumbent R	Dan Lungren	1.2	Leans R	CA	3
20	FL	25	Joe Garcia	Open R	David Rivera	1.2	Leans R	FL	25
21	OH	1	Steve Driehaus	Incumbent D	Steve Chabot	1.2	Leans R	OH	1
22	WI	8	Steve Kagen	Incumbent D	Reid Ribble	1.2	Leans R	WI	8
23	GA	8	Jim Marshall	Incumbent D	Austin Scott	1.0	Leans R	GA	8
24	MD	1	Frank Kratovil	Incumbent D	Andy Harris	1.0	Leans R	MD	1
25	MI	1	Gary McDowell	Open D	Dr. Daniel Benishek	1.0	Leans R	MI	1
26	NM	2	Harry Teague	Incumbent D	Steve Pearce	0.8	Leans R	NM	2
27	SC	5	John Spratt Jr.	Incumbent D	Mick Mulvaney	0.8	Leans R	SC	5
28	VA	2	Glenn Nye	Incumbent D	Scott Rigell	0.8	Leans R	VA	2
29	VA	5	Tom Perriello	Incumbent D	Robert Hurt	0.8	Leans R	VA	5
30	WA	3	Denny Heck	Open D	Jaime Herrera	0.8	Leans R	WA	3
31	AR	1	Chad Causey	Open D	Rick Crawford	0.7	Leans R	AR	1
32	NV	3	Dina Titus	Incumbent D	Dr. Joe Heck	0.7	Leans R	NV	3
33	OH	16	John Boccieri	Incumbent D	Jim Renacci	0.7	Leans R	OH	16
34	WI	7	Julie Lassa	Open D	Sean Duffy	0.7	Leans R	WI	7
35	AZ	5	Harold Mitchell	Incumbent D	David Schweikert	0.5	Toss-Up	AZ	5
36	CA	11	Jerry McNerney	Incumbent D	David Harmer	0.5	Toss-Up	CA	11
37	CO	3	John Salazar	Incumbent D	Scott Tipton	0.5	Toss-Up	CO	3
38	IL	14	Bill Foster	Incumbent D	Randy Hultgren	0.5	Toss-Up	IL	14
39	IN	9	Baron Hill	Incumbent D	Todd Young	0.5	Toss-Up	IN	9
40	MS	1	Travis Childers	Incumbent D	Alan Nunnelee	0.5	Toss-Up	MS	1
41	ND	AL	Earl Pomeroy	Incumbent D	Rick Berg	0.5	Toss-Up	ND	AL
42	NY	19	John Hall	Incumbent D	Nan Hayworth	0.5	Toss-Up	NY	19
43	NY	20	Scott Murphy	Incumbent D	Chris Gibson	0.5	Toss-Up	NY	20
44	NY	23	Bill Owens	Incumbent D	Matt Doheny	0.5	Toss-Up	NY	23
45	PA	7	Bryan Lentz	Open D	Pat Meehan	0.5	Toss-Up	PA	7
46	PA	8	Patrick Murphy	Incumbent D	Mike Fitzpatrick	0.5	Toss-Up	PA	8
47	PA	10	Chris Carney	Incumbent D	Tom Marino	0.5	Toss-Up	PA	10
48	PA	11	Paul Kanjorski	Incumbent D	Lou Barletta	0.5	Toss-Up	PA	11
49	SD	AL	Stephanie Sandlin	Incumbent D	Kristi Noem	0.5	Toss-Up	SD	AL
50	HI	1	Colleen Hanabusa	Incumbent R	Charles Djou	0.3	Toss-Up	HI	1
51	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	0.3	Toss-Up	FL	22
52	IL	17	Phil Hare	Incumbent D	Bobby Schilling	0.3	Toss-Up	IL	17
53	MI	7	Mark Schauer	Incumbent D	Tim Walberg	0.3	Toss-Up	MI	7
54	NC	8	Larry Kissell	Incumbent D	Harold Johnson	0.3	Toss-Up	NC	8
55	NJ	3	John Adler	Incumbent D	Jon Runyan	0.3	Toss-Up	NJ	3
56	OH	18	Zach Space	Incumbent D	Bob Gibbs	0.3	Toss-Up	OH	18
57	TN	4	Lincoln Davis	Incumbent D	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	0.3	Toss-Up	TN	4
58	TX	23	Ciro Rodriguez	Incumbent D	Quico Canseco	0.3	Toss-Up	TX	23
59	WV	1	Mike Oliverio	Open D	David B. McKinley	0.3	Toss-Up	WV	1
60	GA	2	Sanford Bishop	Incumbent D	Mike Keown	0.2	Toss-Up	GA	2
61	NH	2	Annie Kuster	Open D	Charlie Bass	0.2	Toss-Up	NH	2
62	AZ	8	Gabrielle Giffords	Incumbent D	Jesse Kelly	0.0	Toss-Up	AZ	8
63	MA	10	William Keating	Open D	Jeff Perry	0.0	Toss-Up	MA	10
64	MO	4	Ike Skelton	Incumbent D	Vicky Hartzler	0.0	Toss-Up	MO	4
65	OR	5	Kurt Schrader	Incumbent D	Scott Bruun	0.0	Toss-Up	OR	5
66	CA	20	Jim Costa	Incumbent D	Andy Vidak	-0.2	Toss-Up	CA	20
67	ID	1	Walter Minnick	Incumbent D	Raul Labrador	-0.2	Toss-Up	ID	1
68	IL	10	Dan Seals	Open R	Bob Dold	-0.3	Toss-Up	IL	10
69	NY	24	Mike Arcuri	Incumbent D	Richard Hanna	-0.3	Toss-Up	NY	24
70	AL	2	Bobby Bright	Incumbent D	Martha Roby	-0.5	Toss-Up	AL	2
71	MS	4	Gene Taylor	Incumbent D	Steven Palazzo	-0.5	Toss-Up	MS	4
72	NY	1	Tim Bishop	Incumbent D	Randy Altschuler	-0.5	Toss-Up	NY	1
73	OH	6	Charlie Wilson	Incumbent D	Bill Johnson	-0.5	Toss-Up	OH	6
74	PA	12	Mark Critz	Incumbent D	Timothy Burns	-0.7	Leans D	PA	12
75	IN	2	Joe Donnelly	Incumbent D	Jackie Walorski	-0.7	Leans D	IN	2
76	KY	6	Ben Chandler	Incumbent D	Andy Barr	-0.7	Leans D	KY	6
77	NM	1	Martin Heinrich	Incumbent D	Jon Barela	-0.7	Leans D	NM	1
78	VA	9	Rick Boucher	Incumbent D	Morgan Griffith	-0.7	Leans D	VA	9
79	VA	11	Gerald Connolly	Incumbent D	Keith Fimian	-0.7	Leans D	VA	11
80	WA	2	Rick Larsen	Incumbent D	John Koster	-0.7	Leans D	WA	2
81	AZ	7	Raúl Grijalva	Incumbent D	Ruth McClung	-0.8	Leans D	AZ	7
82	CT	4	Jim Himes	Incumbent D	Dan Debicella	-1.0	Leans D	CT	4
83	MI	9	Gary Peters	Incumbent D	"Rocky" Raczowski	-1.0	Leans D	MI	9
84	NC	2	Bob Etheridge	Incumbent D	Renee Ellmers	-1.0	Leans D	NC	2
85	CA	47	Loretta Sanchez	Incumbent D	Van Tran	-1.2	Leans D	CA	47
86	CT	5	Christopher Murphy	Incumbent D	Sam Caligiuri	-1.2	Leans D	CT	5
87	IA	3	Leonard Boswell	Incumbent D	Brad Zaun	-1.2	Leans D	IA	3
88	NY	13	Mike McMahon	Incumbent D	Mike Grimm	-1.2	Leans D	NY	13
89	RI	1	David Cicilline	Open D	John Loughlin	-1.2	Leans D	RI	1
90	LA	2	Cedric Richmond	Incumbent R	Joseph Cao	-1.3	Leans D	LA	2
91	MN	1	Tim Walz	Incumbent D	Randy Demmer	-1.3	Leans D	MN	1
92	NC	7	Mike McIntyre	Incumbent D	Ilario Pantano	-1.3	Leans D	NC	7
93	NY	25	Dan Maffei	Incumbent D	Ann Marie Buerkle	-1.3	Leans D	NY	25
94	WI	3	Ron Kind	Incumbent D	Dan Kapanke	-1.3	Leans D	WI	3
95	DE	AL	John Carney	Open R	Glen Urquhart	-1.5	Leans D	DE	AL
96	NC	11	Heath Shuler	Incumbent D	Jeff Miller	-1.5	Leans D	NC	4
97	CO	7	Ed Perlmutter	Incumbent D	Ryan Frazier	-1.7	Likely D	CO	7
98	IA	2	Dave Loebsack	Incumbent D	Marianneette Miller Meeks	-1.7	Likely D	IA	2
99	PA	4	Jason Altmire	Incumbent D	Keith Rothfus	-1.7	Likely D	PA	4
100	IA	1	Bruce Braley	Incumbent D	Ben Lange	-1.8	Likely D	IA	1
101	MN	8	Jim Oberstar	Incumbent D	Chip Cravaack	-1.8	Likely D	MN	8
102	MO	3	Russ Carnahan	Incumbent D	Ed Martin	-1.8	Likely D	MO	3
103	OH	13	Betty Sutton	Incumbent D	Tom Ganley	-1.8	Likely D	OH	13
104	MA	4	Barney Frank	Incumbent D	Sean Bielat	-2.0	Likely D	MA	4
105	ME	1	Chellie Pingree	Incumbent D	Dean Scontras	-2.0	Likely D	ME	1
106	NY	22	Maurice Hinchey	Incumbent D	George Phillips	-2.0	Likely D	NY	22
107	TX	27	Solomon Ortiz	Incumbent D	R. Blake Farenthold	-2.0	Likely D	TX	27
108	WV	3	Nick Rahall	Incumbent D	"Spike" Maynard	-2.0	Likely D	WV	3
109	PA	17	Tim Holden	Incumbent D	David Argall	-2.2	Likely D	PA	17
110	IL	8	Melissa Bean	Incumbent D	Joe Walsh	-2.3	Likely D	IL	8

[ken5050]

Well, FWIW, here’s MY final House prediction..GOP nets +72. I like the 70% rule...so 70% of 103 is 70..we lose 3 GOP seats..thats 67..but I’m adding 5 more because it’s gonna be a really big wave..

[Red Steel]

I predict we win at least 75% of the seats in play and hold the 7 Repub seats.

So .75 x 110 = 82.5 An 83 seat win as it stands now. ;-)

[SnuffaBolshevik]

Thanks, I.P. I love these charts.

Slightly tangential, but I wonder what time of night we’ll get to see the LSM grudgingly concede that the GOP has gotten their 39 seats?

(Trying not to prematurely count chickens here.)

[CAluvdubya]

Thanks for the ping!

I'm hoping early results from the eastern part of the nation discourages dem voters in CA so they just stay home, resulting in a loss for Boxer and Brown!

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[1035rep]

Great job! Thank you.

[SharpRightTurn]

BUMP

[Hush44]

thanks for the ping!

Looking better every week.....

[GailA]

9th Congressional District race growing tighter
Bergmann a tougher fight than Cohen anticipated

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2618152/posts

Tennessee/Memphis

[Drango]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/31/the-ultimate-hour-by-hour-district-by-district-election-guide/#more-2869

Great article from Nate Silver on what races to watch Tuesday night.