It’s childish responses like that which encourage me to bust your chops. I tried to be helpful in my last post. My mistake. Apparently you only got a sinking feeling realization that you try to cover up with bravado.
If I flip a coin, you guess heads and the coin lands heads, it doesn’t change the fact that you were guessing. At best, a child would insist that they “knew” the coin would land heads. At worse, a liar would say he “knew” the coin would land heads.
It’s not your misunderstanding which bothers me. It’s the fact that you’re deliberately prey on the innocent by using the authority of numbers to state your opinion.
You flip a coin, I guess heads because I know it's a 50-50 probability.
But I'm not "guessing" when a pollster says that candidate A is leading candidate B by 3% with a 4% margin of error. My model, and my equation that fits the model, tells me that a 3% lead with a 4% MOE is equivalent to the leader winning 80.4% of the time.
Perhaps that is the part that you are not understanding.
-PJ