Looking at the plot which just keeps going up makes one wonder if the estimate that is projected by the "Experts" plus the polls is still lagging behind the reality on the ground. One would have expected a flattening of the curve as is the case with the Senate estimate.
Are the "Experts" still running well behind the trend?
Another explanation is the possibility that there are just too many Toss-Ups in the mix. A toss-up is simply an "Expert" refusing to go on the record - a cop out so to speak. To their credit both Sabato and Election Projection do not have any un-called races on their lists. In fact Election Projection doesn't even have a Toss-Up category. Sabato eliminated the category in his final update. It will be interesting to see which of them is has the more accurate projection.
Just to be clear, I'm picking on the "Experts" and perhaps the pollsters but not the simulation which I think is excellent. The current projection of 52 seats is amazingly close to NYT/Silver at 53, Rasmussen at 55 and Sabato at 55 and those are well established pundits.
Anyone who wants to pick on this simulation needs to explain how it is so close to the projections by these well known sources.
They’re liking your printable list idea.
I think they are. The Senate races curve has flattened because there has been extensive polling and publicity on the Senate races for months. Much easier to poll 37 seats, most with candidates established well in advance than over 100 where many primaries were free for alls.
Also, a statewide dynamic is much easier to define than a district wide one.
It's amazing how many undecideds there still are in many of the House races compared to the Senate races. It's the undecideds breaking for the GOP House candidates recently ( they've started to pay attention to the election) that have caused the upward trend. No reason to think that those independents won't continue to break toward the GOP.
I think the NRCC strategy of spending early to bring swing districts into play and create momentum paid off. They got the train rolling early and once it got rolling, it couldn't be slowed or stopped.