What the pollsters are telling us is, if the election were held today this would be the result, with a range of error around each candidate's result. If the result that they publish is really a mean of repeated sampling, with some error of the location of the mean represented by the margin of error, so be it. All I care about is that this is the expert's prediction of the result if the election were held today. I take their predictions, and use the margin of error around that prediction to create a probability of the leader actually winning. That is all.
I don't think I'm mixing apples and oranges.
-PJ
It’s childish responses like that which encourage me to bust your chops. I tried to be helpful in my last post. My mistake. Apparently you only got a sinking feeling realization that you try to cover up with bravado.
If I flip a coin, you guess heads and the coin lands heads, it doesn’t change the fact that you were guessing. At best, a child would insist that they “knew” the coin would land heads. At worse, a liar would say he “knew” the coin would land heads.
It’s not your misunderstanding which bothers me. It’s the fact that you’re deliberately prey on the innocent by using the authority of numbers to state your opinion.