Hurricane Ike Live Thread III

NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image		Image Loop
Lat/Lon	No Lat/Lon	Short	Long
Visible	Visible	Visible	Visible
Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave	Shortwave
Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor	Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None	None	None	None
AVN	AVN	AVN	AVN
Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak	Dvorak
JSL	JSL	JSL	JSL
RGB	RGB	RGB	RGB
Funktop	Funktop	Funktop	Funktop
Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow	Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)

[DollyCali]

are you in northern Houston? I lived in SW quadrant(early 90s).. evac is easier in Houston than Galveston with only the one road heading North

[AFPhys]

This slide above is from the Gov.Perry’s office yesterday’s briefing

[callmejoe]

If you are reading this and on Galveston (or just as important, you know anyone still there), you/they are likely facing imminent death. Most of the roads will be underwater within a matter of hours and there will be no way out. The island *will* drown under the surge. The words in the national weather advisory (”certain death”) are *not* an exaggeration. If you/they stay in your home, you/they *will* die. The surge is already covering many of the roads and we are not even at noon yet.

Get out *now* (or if you know someone call them and scream at them to get out or they will die). You/they will be trapped. This is *not* a joke. Many if not most of the people on the island waving to the cameras on TV right now and telling the reporters they will “ride it out” will be dead by this time tomorrow.

There is a *reason* people still tell stories about 1900 (6,000 dead). It may be worse in 2008 as we are talking about many times the population, a percentage of whom are in the process of making their final mistake.

[kinghorse]

Nah. But that’s cold comfort to the people on Bolivar right now. Apparently that sucker’s already deep underwater and people are being rescued off the tops of buildings. This according to a release just issued by KHOU. Coast Guard doing a rescue of at least 60 stranded people on Bolivar.

[Xenalyte]

I tell you what ... we had to cancel rehearsal this weekend, and I am MOST unhappy about that. After this weekend, we have two rehearsals left, and we NEEDED this one! (Especially since I got a new guy last Sunday who has never been on cast and has zero clue what we’re doing.)

On the plus side, my Spaniards are likewise dissatisfied with having to cancel. So I have tasked them all with being creative in their spare time, and once it blows over, we’ll confab and see what we came up with!

[Eaker]

If there is major loss of life in this storm, who do you think the MSM will blame?

The idiots who waited on a politician to tell them what to do.

The MSM have been marginalized and continue to become more of a joke.

[TheMom]

In one way I can understand their logic ~ the local media played up Rita big time and nothing happened here. The local media has been doing the same with this storm, starting yesterday morning ~ so these people may not be taking this serious. With that said - - - LOOK OUT THE FREAKIN’ WINDOW!!!!! Start taking this storm seriously.

[CedarDave]

Are you watching the local news? Looks like Galveston area is gonna be underwater before to long.

Which Houston station? Are they all live streaming?

[AFPhys]

Very little of Galveston Island seems to be higher than 13ft ASL. Add massive wave on top of this, ... would not bet my home would be there on Sunday.

[NautiNurse]

I’ve ridden out much worse hurricanes than this one

This may be the fatal flaw in your argument. Name one storm that you survived that had hurricane force winds extending 120 miles from the center.

I will patiently await your reply.

[hobson]

I’ve been doing last minute prep so I’m behind on the latest. Are they still predicting tropical storm winds in Houston by 3:00?

[af_vet_rr]

"If you are reading this and on Galveston (or just as important, you know anyone still there), you/they are likely facing imminent death. Most of the roads will be underwater within a matter of hours and there will be no way out. The island *will* drown under the surge."

This is about to get really bad - we've already heard that the water is higher than it should have been at this point.

Jeff Masters' latest entry

“Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike’s rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina’s, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike’s tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday’s blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane’s Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina’s total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.”

[Red_Devil 232]

LOOK OUT THE FREAKIN’ WINDOW!!!!!

Sam Kinnison would be proud of you!

[Xenalyte]

I’m not too far from them, and I second their diagnosis. There’s a nice little breeze blowing now.

[TornadoAlley3]

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html

link to water level stations by state...until they go offline.

[mathluv]

Fox just showed a couple walking in the water on the road above the sea wall.

[y2gordo]

The thing is, at the end of the day we are still going to say how this whole area dodged a MASSIVE bullet. I’ve been paying attention to hurricanes for 20 years, and I have never seen a storm like Ike. If thing ever got its act together, we could’ve been talking about a CAT4 storm that’s this large and Houston would just about be destroyed.

I seriously have never seen a storm with this low of pressure, under this upper-level environment and over this bathwater take this long to get its internal structure together. Every new satellite image, I think “Hey, it’s finally developing a clear eye”, and the next one destroys it.

Oy.

Anyway, just had to rant. This is going to be interesting. Please pray for everyone down there.

///@\\\

[penelopesire]

TXCN reporting that there are actually some 39 foot swells in the 20’ storm surge area out in the ocean...all headed for Galveston!!

There is going to be nothing left of Galveston!

[mathluv]

IAH is not too far south of the San Jacinto River. I remember when that flooded.

[AFPhys]

Sadly - you are completely accurate - many are going to die...

I will not be surprised if over 10,000 die tomorrow - of course, I was expecting about 30K+ dead in 9/11 -— I hope I’m as inaccurate here.