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If you are reading this and on Galveston (or just as important, you know anyone still there), you/they are likely facing imminent death. Most of the roads will be underwater within a matter of hours and there will be no way out. The island *will* drown under the surge. The words in the national weather advisory (”certain death”) are *not* an exaggeration. If you/they stay in your home, you/they *will* die. The surge is already covering many of the roads and we are not even at noon yet.

Get out *now* (or if you know someone call them and scream at them to get out or they will die). You/they will be trapped. This is *not* a joke. Many if not most of the people on the island waving to the cameras on TV right now and telling the reporters they will “ride it out” will be dead by this time tomorrow.

There is a *reason* people still tell stories about 1900 (6,000 dead). It may be worse in 2008 as we are talking about many times the population, a percentage of whom are in the process of making their final mistake.

"If you are reading this and on Galveston (or just as important, you know anyone still there), you/they are likely facing imminent death. Most of the roads will be underwater within a matter of hours and there will be no way out. The island *will* drown under the surge."

This is about to get really bad - we've already heard that the water is higher than it should have been at this point.

Jeff Masters' latest entry

“Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike’s rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina’s, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike’s tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday’s blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane’s Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina’s total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.”

Sadly - you are completely accurate - many are going to die...

I will not be surprised if over 10,000 die tomorrow - of course, I was expecting about 30K+ dead in 9/11 -— I hope I’m as inaccurate here.

"Get out *now*"

According to some reports on this thread it's too late; the roads to Galveston island are already covered by water.