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Threat Matrix: September 2007
Previous Thread ^

Posted on 09/01/2007 6:24:54 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
September 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 911; afghanistan; ahmadinejad; alqaeda; alqaida; binladen; bus; denmark; germany; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hizbuttahrir; ht; iran; iraq; israel; jihad; jihadunion; lebanon; mexico; pakistan; phosgene; russia; september112001; sixthanniversary; spain; styphnicacid; syria; taleban; taliban; terrorism; threatmatrix; ubl; un; unmovic; videotape; wisconsin
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To: milford421; All; 1035rep; 1curiousmind; 4woodenboats; 5Madman2; 68skylark; AdmSmith; airborne; ...

Great assesment of the facts and is probably the reason why Presdient Bush is so preoccupied. In return for this threat that will kill a minimum of tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands if any bio or nuclear dirty weapons are used - put tens of millions of Americans out of work and ability to pay their bills - thus the economic domino effect within the USA followed by the crash of other national economies,

The main target of UBL and the Islamic Regime in Iran is now an attack on our economy, which is our real soft underbelly.

As I said, Bush has to now weigh what must be done.

As cited on AntiMullah.com we have a plan in place for a three day shock and awe bombing attack on some 1,200 military and military related locations to virtually wipe out every vestige of military capability in Iran. (Out of some 5,000 tactically and strategically pre-selected targets also on our radar).

We would bury ingress and exit of the nuclear underground facilites, which puts those out of action for long enough to matter.

We remove the threat to the populace of the blooodthirsty militias like the Bassij suppression brigades and liquidate the Revolutionary Guards, having to kill some 400,000 people in the process - if they are at their posts.

On the plus side, once done the people will rise up and take care of the rest. Leaving politicial chaos for some time but removing Iran as a threat to the world for a long time

There would be some 50,000 collateral deaths of innocent civilians as we remove the military from the face of Iran. A bit like the loss of healthy blood and rissue during a cancer surgery.

We would face the wrath of retaliatory attacks everywhere by suicide bombers etc. - in our malls, IEDs on our freeways, our school children targetted, idnapped and killed without mercy, our electricity power grid made inoperable as pylons are brought down (so easy to do and there have already been a number of practise runs).

All this has to be done and the consequence to our well-being accepted or face horrifically worse death and destruction after Iran starts building up an arsenal of nukes. And becomes what we face today in spades.

Not an easy decision for our President, who has to find the resolve to take such terrible action to save us.

Another Hiroshima/Nagasaki size decision! With the added consideration that this “blast” would have other a backwash killing our own people inside the USA. And in other countries.

Huge decision to carry on your shoulders. With only “escape” option being to do what Clinton did in avoiding dealing with terrorism. Leave it to the next President to deal with. What we face today was already on the horizon in the 1990s.

What Bush has to weight is whther the next Presidnet would be able to take the tough decision or just let matters slide till the Islamists took us over, holding a nuclear threat over our heads to faciliate their aims.

You may want to check the top article on AntiMullah about how islamists are trying to take over Britains’s laws to favor their aims to IMPOSE Islam on the island..


601 posted on 09/08/2007 11:19:30 AM PDT by FARS ( Good Thoughts (lead to) Good Words, (which together) lead to Good Deeds)
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To: milford421
From what he says, it’s reasonable to assume that he will target D.C. (democracy) and NYC (capitalism), and this will be very soon, because “the morrow is nigh” and justice and revenge is overdue.

Add Hollywood ("culture")

602 posted on 09/08/2007 11:34:41 AM PDT by null and void (I have several guns....every sane person should have at least one. ~ Fawn)
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To: FARS; 1stbn27; 2111USMC; 2nd Bn, 11th Mar; 68 grunt; A.A. Cunningham; ASOC; AirForceBrat23; ...

Follow the pings.

Thank you FARS.


603 posted on 09/08/2007 11:46:43 AM PDT by freema (St. Michael I beg your watch and protection over the United States Marine Corps)
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To: All

Repost from 600

I just watched the whole video, and I agree with you.

1. NY(Capitalism)
2. DC(Democracy)
3. Houston (Oil/Energy)
4. LA (He mentioned the disgraces of Hollywood)


604 posted on 09/08/2007 11:52:57 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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To: All

Germany - More Details - UPDATE - QUOTE:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1891316/posts?page=135#135

More Details...

Note: The following post is a quote:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1893203/posts

Germany Investigates 7 More Suspects in Terror Plot
FOX News ^ | 9/8/07

Posted on 09/08/2007 11:58:30 AM PDT by Michael81Dus

BERLIN — Three militant Islamic terror suspects had acquired vans that might have been intended for use in bomb attacks on U.S. and other targets in Germany, a spokeswoman for prosecutors said Saturday. Estimates of the size of the plot ranged as high as 50 people, and prosecutors were looking the possibility of a wider terrorist network. German authorities think the two German converts and a Turk arrested Tuesday were only the leading tip of the planning, said Petra Kneuer, spokeswoman for the Federal Prosecutor’s Office. She said authorities were investigating seven more suspects inside and outside Germany as part of what could be a larger network. Reports that about 50 people are believed to be involved overall are “not unrealistic,” she added. The purpose of the vans has yet to be nailed down, Kneuer said when she was asked about a report in the news weekly Focus that the three suspects had obtained the vehicles across the border in France. “So far it hasn’t been shown that there really was a link to the planned attacks,” she told The Associated Press.

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...

###

More Details...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1893163/posts

German terror suspect ‘met 9/11 hijacker’ (German convert to islam)
Times Online ^ | September 08 2007 | Roger Boyes

Posted on 09/08/2007 10:26:37 AM PDT by knighthawk

135 posted on 09/08/2007 12:21:27 PM PDT by Cindy


605 posted on 09/08/2007 12:24:20 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Cindy; All

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/guantanamo_tora_bora

Yemeni says bin Laden was at Tora Bora

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico - A doctor who treated wounded al-Qaida fighters at Tora Bora in Afghanistan has confirmed Osama bin Laden was at the mountain stronghold as U.S. and Afghan forces attacked — and said the al-Qaida chieftain seemed concerned about only his own welfare.
...
The rare insider’s account of the siege of Tora Bora is contained in transcripts The Associated Press obtained Friday from the Pentagon under the Freedom of Information Act. The transcript is of a hearing held at the U.S. military prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where Batarfi — who was arrested after the siege — is being held.

*OPINION - It is very interesting that this news is being relayed today. The article notes that the AP received the transcript via FOIA, but (not to sound like a flaming liberal) I question the timing.


606 posted on 09/08/2007 12:34:15 PM PDT by celtic-cat
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To: Cindy; nwctwx; ExSoldier; Oorang; All

The following is posted at http://www.powerlineblog.com/

CONNECT THE DOTS

Der Spiegel has interesting information about the terror bust in Germany; as usual, however, you have to read between the lines:

Three suspected Islamist militants who were planning to attack U.S. installations in Germany had orders to act by Sept. 15....According to surveillance details published in Der Spiegel magazine, the men had been given a two-week deadline for their planned strikes in a late August call from northern Pakistan that was monitored by German police.
_____________________

I agree with the folks at Powerline - which other cells were given the green light to attack by the 15th.


607 posted on 09/08/2007 12:43:35 PM PDT by Godzilla (Why is 'abbreviation' such a long word?)
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To: FARS
We would face the wrath of retaliatory attacks everywhere by suicide bombers etc. - in our malls, IEDs on our freeways, our school children targetted, idnapped and killed without mercy, our electricity power grid made inoperable as pylons are brought down (so easy to do and there have already been a number of practise runs).

Don't post much anymore, to busy, but have one comment to add.

Homeland Sec. had issued a large number of food and drug safety regs in the last few years. To the point where small plants like the ethanol plant I used to work for are putting in a lot of security, and larger operations like the plant I now work for have to put in a lot more. We are very open to a massive disruption of our food and pharma supplies, and it would only take a few incidents at a few key points.

We are way to centralized in our distribution networks to be safe. A few guys with rifles and some explosives could shut down food, power, and water to must major cities very quickly.

608 posted on 09/08/2007 12:50:46 PM PDT by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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Comment #609 Removed by Moderator

To: Godzilla; Cindy; callmejoe; All
German suspects had deadline for attacks
Sat Sep 8, 2007

BERLIN - Three suspected Islamist militants who were planning to attack American targets in Germany had orders to act by September 15 and knew police were hot on their trail before their arrest, a magazine said on Saturday. The plan was foiled on Tuesday when police arrested two German converts to Islam and a Turk in the biggest German police investigation in the last 30 years.

According to surveillance details published in Der Spiegel magazine, the men had been given a two-week deadline for their planned strikes in a late August call from northern Pakistan that was monitored by German police. In another detail to emerge on Saturday, a spokeswoman for the Federal Prosecutors Office in Karlsruhe confirmed a Focus magazine report that the suspects had obtained three small used vans in France and brought them to Germany.

SNIP:
The three suspects were aware they were under close police observation, Der Spiegel said. At one point, one of the suspects got out of a car at a traffic light, calmly walked back to an unmarked police vehicle behind him and slashed its tyres.

Excerpted

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL0838154320070908?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&rpc=22&sp=true


610 posted on 09/08/2007 1:05:11 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: Godzilla

Sorry Zilla, I wasn’t clear. My post #610 is a follow up to your post #607.


611 posted on 09/08/2007 1:06:54 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: backhoe; JohnathanRGalt; All

www.youtube.com/user/EGmujahid01

salafnews.wordpress.com/


612 posted on 09/08/2007 1:08:01 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: fanfan

Thank you for that update fanfan.
I appreciate it.


613 posted on 09/08/2007 1:09:02 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: callmejoe

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/keyword?k=houston

#

callmejoe said in part in post no. 584: “he calls Bush “the leader of Texas” (an extremely odd phrase). Given his advice to read Scheuer, it is worth noting again that Scheuer has said on repeated occasions over the past year or two that he believes Houston is the third target because even temporarily neutralizing or disrupting the cornerstone and key node of our energy infrastructure will open a window of opportunity for the Jihad.”

Thank you callmejoe.
Duly noted.


614 posted on 09/08/2007 1:14:12 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: milford421

The jihadi propagandists have compared UBL to a lion for quite awhile.


615 posted on 09/08/2007 1:19:33 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Cindy

at :23 on the tape he says: “An eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth, a killer be killed” and then he raises his right hand. Is that an attack signal????


616 posted on 09/08/2007 1:20:00 PM PDT by Patriot Philly
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To: milford421; callmejoe; Godzilla; All

“Does anyone really think the reference to Hiroshima was a coincidence?”

No.

OPINION - SPECULATION:

That said, the nuclear bomb is probably their ultimate goal.
I know they are interested in the nuke (from various writings), jihadi sites, etc.; but I think right now it’s probably something more basic.

For example, if I was in Houston, I would still be concerned as to where those 17 missing buses are.

For example, have they found jihadis who can drive stolen trucks and stolen buses straight into _____ (fill in the blanks)?

###

RECAP:

http://www.khou.com/news/local/crime/stories/khou070827_tj_buses.781ef2b7.html

“School bus thefts raise security concerns”
11:25 AM CDT on Tuesday, August 28, 2007
By Jeff McShan / 11 News

Jeff McShan’s 11 News report

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “The Houston Police Department’s Criminal Intelligence Division, the FBI and the Harris County Sheriff’s Office are all concerned about a large number of school buses that have been stolen in the Houston area over the last several months.

Seventeen large, yellow school buses were stolen recently from various charter schools, business schools and private bus companies. Not one has disappeared from HISD.

Most, if not all, were taken from locations on Houston’s north side.”


617 posted on 09/08/2007 1:29:20 PM PDT by Cindy
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To: Godzilla
When in reality, he is the one who struck first. But then I suspect he would reach back to our support of Israel to reclaim the justification.

Of course he would... when all else fails he can fall back on the Arab/Israeli conflict and blame us for the power of Israel. I think that's an argument he doesn't have much trouble convincing "the street" of so he focuses on specific instances of Americans fighting Muslims on their lands.

Hmmmm, did AQ time 911 to coincide with the recession the country had entered, or was that a side benefit? Perhaps, with hindsight, OBL sees how deeply a mega attack can affect the US economy and may be judging that ours is in a precarious position.

In many ways I think a mega attack has greater consequences today than it would have on 9/11. The 9/11 attack was a set of small shots to bleed us for a bit. It succeeded in temporarily crippling portions of the airline industry and sent shockwaves of uncertainty throughout the market that continue today with oil prices and the like. Billions upon billions has been spent to protect us against a litany of threats but we have no certainty that we can stop the next attack because it's so hard to track down such small groups of fanatical people. We have much of our military on constant rotation; this causes our equipment to degrade quicker, our troops to get tired in the long-term and ensures that we have more limited resources to respond to either an attack at home or a major war changing attack in the Iraq-Afghanistan (with Iran in the center) theater.

Considering what we have had to endure the past few years we are doing remarkably well on the economic front. It has to be viewed as at least somewhat fragile I think even to someone who has a very rosy picture of the situation. A mega attack or some other significant combination of attacks could prove to set things in motion to go from fragile to broken.

I think a combination of attacks at home and a major attack against the military overseas could prove to be a difficult situation to deal with. IF AQ has, or ever has, nuclear capability I wonder if it might be easier for them to try using it in a place other than the U.S.
618 posted on 09/08/2007 1:40:59 PM PDT by nwctwx
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Pakistan airports 'on high alert'
Saturday, 8 September 2007

Pakistan's airports have been placed on highest alert, with the threat of a terror attack imminent, officials say. The government has also banned gatherings of five or more people near Rawalpindi's international airport.

The moves come days before exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has a residence in Rawalpindi, is expected to return to the country. Meanwhile, Lebanese and Saudi officials have urged Mr Sharif to honour a deal not to return to Pakistan until 2010. Mr Sharif, leader of the opposition Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) party, insisted he would return home on Monday despite the Arab leaders' appeals.

Excerpted

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/6985205.stm

German terror suspect 'met 9/11 hijacker'
September 7, 2007

The prime suspect in the alleged German terror plot to blow up hundreds of people may have had contact with Mohammed Atta, the suicide pilot who smashed a hijacked plane into the Twin Towers.

German police reports are vague about the encounter, but it has helped investigators to trace Fritz Gelowicz’s path from average Bavarian schoolboy to Islamic radical. His case has also highlighted the curious and sinister role of Neu-Ulm — a small township in the Roman Catholic heart of southern Germany — as a cradle of Islamic extremism.

The connection between Gelowicz, 28, who was arrested this week, and Atta seems to date back to 2000 while the suicide pilot was studying in Hamburg and already preparing the 9/11 attack with a group of devout accomplices. The Egyptian student visited a small mosque in Bavarian Neu-Ulm, which had already gained a reputation for radicalism. Firebrand preachers were passing in and out of the town and it had become a magnet for angry young Muslims.

“Fritz G came to our notice nine years ago when he publicly praised Islamic terror attacks,” said Guenther Beckstein, the Interior Minister of Bavaria.” His name crops up again in relation to a visit to Neu-Ulm by Mohammed Atta,who later went on to be a terror pilot on September 11.”

Excerpted

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2407656.ece

619 posted on 09/08/2007 1:49:15 PM PDT by Oorang (Tyranny thrives best where government need not fear the wrath of an armed people - Alex Kozinski)
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To: All; JustPiper; tubavil; thecabal; Revel; Kinetic; Donna Lee Nardo; Honestly; ExSoldier; HipShot; ..
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1893194/posts

Experts warn of attack clues in Bin Laden video
Agence France-Presse ^ | September 8, 2007 | AFP

Posted on 09/08/2007 11:48:23 AM PDT by MaestroLC

WASHINGTON - Intelligence experts scouring the latest video of Osama bin Laden for clues warned on Saturday that his message offers hints that Al-Qaeda is planning another attack on US interests.

In his first video appearance in three years, the elusive Al-Qaeda chief mocks the United States as "weak" and vows to escalate fighting in Iraq, all the while using language similar to the kind used ahead of other past attacks.

At times, bin Laden speaks directly to Americans, using plain language that "appears to be crafted in a way as to be understood by the average person on the street in Europe or in the US," said intelligence analyst Ben Venzke.

The latest video "contains phrases ... which serve as indicators that OBL's message is part of Al-Qaeda's efforts to fulfill its requirements to provide warning and a chance for the enemy to change its ways before executing an attack," Venzke said.

However, the message, delivered days ahead of the sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States in which 3,000 people were killed, gives no clues "to indicate when an attack ... would be attempted," he said.

The language, saying peace will befall "he who follows the guidance," mirrors that used in bin Laden's "European truce offer" of April 2004 in which he said: "Peace upon those who followed the right path."

The similarity in terms is important because the 2004 message appealing to Europeans to change their ways was the final message aimed specifically at Europeans before the July 2005 bombings in London which killed 52 people, said Venzke of the Virginia-based Intel Center.

In the video, bin Laden also discusses current events but issues no direct threats, and offers two ways of ending the Iraq war, according to a transcript released by the US-based SITE Intelligence Group which monitors Islamic militant websites.

"The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you," he says.

The second is to do away with the US democratic system of government, which he says merely serves the interests of major corporations.

"Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security," he says, adding: Allah is our Guardian and helper, while you have no guardian or helper."

Bin Laden appears in the video with a trimmed beard that is apparently dyed black, hiding the streaks of gray seen in previous footage, and wears a beige cloak over a white robe.

According to Azzam Tamimi, head of the London-based Institute of Islamic Political Thought, the beard dye is a "sign of war."

The rigorous Salafi Islamic school to which bin Laden belongs "condones this dye only in preparation for war," he said.

A US intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity said agencies believe the video is authentic and was produced as recently as August because of a reference to the 62nd anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima on August 6.

"I think people are pretty confident it is his voice," the official said.

Prior to this release, the last video message from bin Laden, who has a 25-million-dollar US bounty on his head, came in October 2004, while a CIA-authenticated audio clip was posted on the Internet in May 2006.

CIA Director Michael Hayden on Friday also warned that Al-Qaeda was planning new, large-scale attacks on US targets.

"Our analysts assess with high confidence that Al-Qaeda's central leadership is planning high impact plots against the American homeland," Hayden said.

In the rambling message, bin Laden mocks the United States for its troubles in Iraq and the effect of the September 11, 2001 attacks.

"Despite America being the greatest economic power and possessing the most powerful and up-to-date military arsenal as well ... 19 young men were able -- by the grace of Allah, the most high -- to change the direction of its compass," he said in a reference to the September 11 hijackers.

"America is weak despite its apparent strength," he says.

Believed to be hiding in the remote tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, bin Laden verbally attacks US President George W. Bush as well as the US Democratic Party, which he says has done little to halt the Iraq war.

Bush, in turn, used the video to support the US military presence in Iraq.

"If Al-Qaeda bothers to mention Iraq, it's because they want to achieve their objectives in Iraq, which is to drive attacks and develop a safe haven," Bush said.

Addressing the American people directly, bin Laden refers to domestic opposition to the Iraq war.

"The world is following your news in regards to your invasion of Iraq, for people have recently come to know that, after several years of tragedies of this war, the vast majority of you want it stopped."

He says the Democrats who now control the US Congress have failed to stop the war, and even "continue to agree to the spending of tens of billions to continue the killing and war there."

Bin Laden also refers to recent US headline stories, referring to "the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes."

"To conclude," he says, "I invite you to embrace Islam."

620 posted on 09/08/2007 1:51:39 PM PDT by nwctwx
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