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Threat Matrix: September 2007
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Posted on 09/01/2007 6:24:54 PM PDT by nwctwx

:::FreeRepublic's Threat Matrix:::
The Birth of al Qaedastan

In the year 2016, the world may find itself gloomily marking September 6 as the tenth anniversary of the creation of the Islamic Emirate of Waziristan. The Emirate received de facto recognition when the Taliban used the name on the ceasefire agreement they signed with Pakistan on that day in 2006. If things go terribly wrong in the coming decade, they could come to rule a mountainous fragment of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The Emirate would be a nightmare state: Osama bin Laden as sultan, Ayman al Zawahiri as vizier, and Mullah Omar the spiritual leader. An economy built on smuggling and heroin. Primary export: terrorism. Welcome to ‘Al Qaedastan’.

Analysts say the rise of a terrorist state straddling the rugged area between Pakistan and Afghanistan is now viable. The reason is a number of troubling trends. One, the revival of a Taliban firmly in the control of Al Qaeda. Two, the seeming inability of either Kabul or Islamabad to defeat the new threat militarily. Three, and the most striking, the Taliban’s systematic supplanting of the traditional tribal leadership in the area. Full story...

Critical Threats: Blank When None
Threat Matrix:
September 2007
Click for Color Code Information


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: 911; afghanistan; ahmadinejad; alqaeda; alqaida; binladen; bus; denmark; germany; globaljihad; hamas; hezbollah; hizballah; hizbullah; hizbuttahrir; ht; iran; iraq; israel; jihad; jihadunion; lebanon; mexico; pakistan; phosgene; russia; september112001; sixthanniversary; spain; styphnicacid; syria; taleban; taliban; terrorism; threatmatrix; ubl; un; unmovic; videotape; wisconsin
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JIHAD WATCH.org (MEMRITV.org): "'These scumbags want to play with us?'" (SNIPPET: ""Let's use [bin Laden] to scare them. By Allah, they are terrified of him. Aren't they terrified of him? He is destroying them. He was here once - let's bring him again. He will come.'" SNIPPET: "'All we want is to die for the sake of Allah.'") (Note: Video included.) (September 7, 2007)
MEMRI.org - Special Dispatch Series - No. 1706: "SUDANESE ISLAMIC LEADERS THREATEN U.S.: DON'T SEND FORCES TO DARFUR; SUDAN IS THE MOST BEAUTIFUL PLACE IN WHICH OUR SHEIKH, BIN LADEN, CAN OPERATE" (Note: Video included.) (September 6, 2007)


REWARDS FOR JUSTICE.net: "WANTED USAMA BIN LADEN Up to $25 Million Reward"

COUNTERTERRORISM BLOG.org: "SITE INSTITUTE: TRANSCRIPT OF BIN LADEN VIDEO" by Jeffrey Imm (September 7, 2007)

COUNTERTERRORISM BLOG: "9/11 6TH ANNIVERSARY: BIN LADEN VIDEO DETAILS EMERGE (Note: Transcript included.)  (September 7, 2007)

Link

Link

Link

JIHAD WATCH.org: "OSAMA'S INVITATION TO ISLAM" (September 7, 2007)

COUNTERTERRORISM BLOG.org: "9/11 6th ANNIVERSARY: NEW BIN LADEN VIDEO COMING AND ISLAMIST 'SPECIAL GIFT' PROMISED" by Jeffrey Imm (September 6, 2007)

A link

Links

inshallahshaheed.wordpress.com: "Soon .... Soon ... Soon ... Soon ... the blessed invasion of Manhattan" -"Posted by inshallahshaheed in United States of Losers, Jihad, America." (September 2, 2007) (Note: This url is 404 - not found.)

"ia341203.us.archive.org/1/items/vvdfg/NEW.rm"

More Links (September 4, 3007)

Right Now and Stepping back in time -- A Link Sampler

581 posted on 09/08/2007 4:54:40 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: All

READY.GOV
http://www.ready.gov


582 posted on 09/08/2007 4:55:14 AM PDT by Cindy
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To: Cindy
Update

ACCUSED DENIED BAIL

A 48-year-old Ottawa man charged after police seized a grenade launcher, AK-47, Uzi and 27 other firearms from a west-end home was denied bail yesterday.

Siva Yogi Shanmugadhasan was arrested after the cache was Aug. 22 in his Woodroffe Ave. home. He’s facing four charges, including two of unlawful possession of restricted weapons.

A publication ban was placed on the evidence.


http://www.ottawasun.com/News/OttawaAndRegion/2007/09/08/4478695-sun.html
583 posted on 09/08/2007 4:58:08 AM PDT by fanfan ("We don't start fights my friends, but we finish them, and never leave until our work is done."PMSH)
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To: GorillaMa; Cindy; Godzilla; nwctwx; Oorang; Rushmore Rocks; Velveeta; callmejoe; All

>>>He wants us to know that the deaths that will happen are not because we are Christians or Jews, because he makes the case that they don’t just go around incinerating people that are different from them, in fact, he wants us to know that Muslims have a strong history of co-existence, and there are no plans to incinerate the Jews in places like Morocco, or Christians in places like Egypt.<<<

Exactly. He makes the preemptive case that the coming attacks will have been a last resort. And that if we had only taken the opportunity to convert that has ben offered so many times, and moved ourselves from the “House of War” into the “House of Peace” that his envisioned Caliphate seeks to build, that we would have been immune because “mass killing” (”holocaust”/”incineration” as “The Solution” - - the name of the video) is an art form introduced to mankind by non-Muslims. They seek reciprocity (the theme of the Oct 2004 tape as well) and will “fight fire with fire”, but not in their house. This case will continue to be built as it will be the centerpiece of the message that will likely be delivered after the next attack (by UBL or his successor). Another truce will likely be offered after the attack(s) with a guarantee of no more attacks (a “hudna” or even a permanent peace)with a simultaneous threat of follow-on strikes if the truce is rejected (carrot and stick).

He believes a dynamic can be created over years or decades that will produce a domestic movement to begin to argue for a truce with the Jihad, and if it is politically/socially/religiously unpalatable and unrealistic for mass conversion to take place in a modern age, that Islamic law provides for the assimilation of non-Muslims into the Islamic Empire through agreement to pay the jizya (not sure why he called it the “zakaat” because I thought only Muslims could pay alms).

As massive WMD strikes take place every several years or every decade or so for the next several generations, they may believe that forces of accommodation will come to the fore and be empowered to argue for a truce to end the strikes, which will simply not be indefinitely preventable over time.

>>>Although we have been inept in ending the war, the war will end because they will now take on the task of finishing it. The “gift” that has been hinted at for days is the invitation to embrace Islam now. For those that will die, they will be packed with the “gain” of Islam. For the remaining, embracing Islam and abandoning democracy and capitalism will ensure life and peace.<<<

The gift has a double meaning. To them it is a “severe mercy”. The “gift” means the vehicle(s) of mass death that are now on their way to their targets inside America. But in the larger sense, it also implies what you have discerned - - that while the price paid in innocent civilian life may be steep, it is unavoidable collateral damage that must be inflicted to advance (what is in their minds) the higher goal of securing our eventual submission to the Islamic vanguard and the “Kingdom of God”.

>>>From what he says, it’s reasonable to assume that he will target D.C. (democracy) and NYC (capitalism), and this will be very soon, because “the morrow is nigh” and justice and revenge is overdue.<<<

Insightful. This was not rambling at all, but a cohesive (if insidious) argument. He attempts to make the case that our political system is irredeemable because of the confluence of money and power - - and therefore the current dysfunctional political system he tried to influence days before the 2004 election in his last speech is inherently incapable in their view of reforming itself to the point where it can end the “aggression” being waged in the Islamic world that forces (allows them to rationalize) a “defensive” Jihad. The current democratic system cannot be reasoned with, so it must be decapitated and/or disabled.

So “The Solution” requires the ending of our political system by pushing us into an Iraqi-styled chaos (and afterwards a more authoritarian and centralized government that may be more able and willing to negotiate since they will have been somewhat released from the constraints of our current system as it is easier to negotiate with one than many) by attacking what they perceive as the centers of money and power (NYC and DC).

On the fourth line of the fourth paragraph of the translation’s “page 4” (the pg labeled as “4” at the bottom of the pg - - hope there wasn’t a coincidence of “4s” in the original):

(http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/070907_bin_laden_transcript.pdf

he calls Bush “the leader of Texas” (an extremely odd phrase). Given his advice to read Scheuer, it is worth noting again that Scheuer has said on repeated occasions over the past year or two that he believes Houston is the third target because even temporarily neutralizing or disrupting the cornerstone and key node of our energy infrastructure will open a window of opportunity for the Jihad.

” . . .They are alive with us and we have not incinerated them, but we are a people who don’t sleep under oppression and reject humiliation and disgrace, and we take revenge on the people of tyranny and aggression, and the blood of the Muslims will not be spilled with impunity, and the morrow is nigh for he who awaits.”

(i.e. “tomorrow is near for those who are waiting”)

I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that what UBL read out was an intended death sentence for roughly 250,000 Americans to be executed imminently.

Whether or not they have the ability to carry out that sentence in full or even in part is another matter entirely.


584 posted on 09/08/2007 7:31:08 AM PDT by callmejoe
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To: Cindy
I wonder, do you think UBL is sweating it out, realizing his gig could possibly be up soon? I wonder if he is as paranoid as Ahmadinejad.

I'm not sure. I've not been able to watch the video of his talk (software incompatibility), but am still wondering about his health. One site mentioned that he appeared to move for only about 3-4 minutes of the 30-40 minute speech and wondered if it was a artifact of the download. The still photo show him looking pretty rough, in-spite of the grecian formula treatment of his beard.

One thing is for sure, if there is a major attack, Pakistan will be hit regardless of Musharraf's wishes.

585 posted on 09/08/2007 7:58:00 AM PDT by Godzilla (Why is 'abbreviation' such a long word?)
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To: milkncookies

Thanks for that.

Just one correction to post 414. The options expire on the 3rd Friday of the month...9/21 in this case.


586 posted on 09/08/2007 8:01:19 AM PDT by milford421 (U.N. OUT OF U.S.)
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To: Cindy

“1. His beard is a signal that he is a young, strong lion in my opinion.
That MAY indicate he’s ready for battle and/or to lead a battle and/or to continue the battle.”

Hadn’t thought of that...makes sense to me. The message repeats the passage of the lion three times?


587 posted on 09/08/2007 8:02:19 AM PDT by milford421 (U.N. OUT OF U.S.)
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To: nwctwx

“Almost 3yrs of video silence for this?”

You’re right. Doesn’t make sense, which means we’re missing something.


588 posted on 09/08/2007 8:03:20 AM PDT by milford421 (U.N. OUT OF U.S.)
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To: WestCoastGal

“Do they have Just For Men in Pakistan?”

Got a chuckle out of that one.

Something here that I think we’re missing.
Cindy makes good points in her observations regarding the appearance of strength and youth...the lion.


589 posted on 09/08/2007 8:05:00 AM PDT by milford421 (U.N. OUT OF U.S.)
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To: callmejoe; Cindy; Oorang; WestCoastGal; nw_arizona_granny; Velveeta; FARS; DAVEY CROCKETT; ...

Forgive me for jumping in on this one...I believe callmejoe is correct and I’d like to add my opinion.

“that Islamic law provides for the assimilation of non-Muslims into the Islamic Empire through agreement to pay the jizya (not sure why he called it the “zakaat” because I thought only Muslims could pay alms).”

Jizya is the dhimmi tax imposed on non-muslims. I presume binny used zakaat due to the goal of converting the world to islam...jizya would not be necessary, thus zakaat would be appropriate if the world were muslim only. This too is a sinister threat.

“The gift has a double meaning. To them it is a “severe mercy”. The “gift” means the vehicle(s) of mass death that are now on their way to their targets inside America. But in the larger sense, it also implies what you have discerned - - that while the price paid in innocent civilian life may be steep, it is unavoidable collateral damage that must be inflicted to advance (what is in their minds) the higher goal of securing our eventual submission to the Islamic vanguard and the “Kingdom of God”.”

Correct and goes along with my previous comment. I do believe the gift is a code for a large attack.

“>>>From what he says, it’s reasonable to assume that he will target D.C. (democracy) and NYC (capitalism), and this will be very soon, because “the morrow is nigh” and justice and revenge is overdue.<<<”

I agree with the poster who made this comment and callmejoe’s comments on it.

Regarding the use of the 4’s, (which callme made reference to), could this be the fourth target? Say in LA? LAX specifically?

NY, Washington, TX, CA...we’ve seen this before...repeatedly.

“I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that what UBL read out was an intended death sentence for roughly 250,000 Americans to be executed imminently.”

I have no doubt either.

It is unfortunate that many seem to be overlooking the importance of this tape. I believe it is more sinister and contains warnings of what is to come.

Does anyone really think the reference to Hiroshima was a coincidence?


590 posted on 09/08/2007 8:35:31 AM PDT by milford421 (U.N. OUT OF U.S.)
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To: milford421; GorillaMa; callmejoe

Thank you all for your very cogent and thoughtful analysis. Some bright and thoughtful people here on the TM.

(”Hiroshima” was no mistake. I believe he very deliberately cited it.)


591 posted on 09/08/2007 8:42:18 AM PDT by Rushmore Rocks
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To: milford421; callmejoe; nwctwx; Velveeta; Rushmore Rocks; Cindy; KylaStarr; nw_arizona_granny; ...

Sometimes, these days, a little humor can’t hurt. :)

I appreciate your other comments with regard to the tape. I too think it’s very ominous. We’ve gone over the 4’s previously IIRC and for the life of me cannot remember what all we came up with. It was several years ago I think. I will try to look back in my stuff, however, with various computer problems lately I don’t know if I have it anymore.

Maybe someone else remembers.


592 posted on 09/08/2007 8:58:06 AM PDT by WestCoastGal (***81***)
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To: Cindy

I’m sorry I forgot to ping you above. :(


593 posted on 09/08/2007 9:09:46 AM PDT by WestCoastGal (***81***)
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[this is intersting, I don’t know if we have this in the archives]

A chronology of Bin Laden tapes
Published: 9/6/2007

WASHINGTON - The leader of the Al-Qaeda terror network, Osama bin Laden, who had apparantly made a new recording to mark the anniversary of the September 11 attacks has appeared in many videos.
The US-based monitoring service SITE said Thursday it had “learned that a new video message is forthcoming from the head of Al-Qaeda” on Tuesday’s sixth anniversary of the 2001 attacks.

Here is a chronology of past tapes:

— 2001 —

Oct 7: (Al-Jazeera audiotape, referring to the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States) “America has been hit by Allah at its most vulnerable point, destroying, thank God, its most prestigious buildings.”

Dec 13: (Video said by Washington to have been found by US troops in Afghanistan) “We calculated in advance the number of casualties from the enemy who would be killed based on the position of the tower.”

Dec 27: (Al-Jazeera video) “Terrorism against America deserves to be praised because it was a response to injustice, aimed at forcing America to stop its support for Israel, which kills our people.”

— 2002 —

Jan 31: (Al-Jazeera interview) “The battle has moved to inside America. We will work to continue this battle, God permitting, until victory or until we meet God.”

Sept 9: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) “When we evoke the raids on New York and Washington, we speak of the men who changed the course of history and cleansed the ... filth of treacherous rulers and their subordinates.”

Nov 13: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) Bin Laden hails terror attacks in Tunisia, on the Indonesian island of Bali, and a Moscow hostage-taking.

— 2003 —

Feb 11: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) “All those who cooperate with the Americans against Iraq are hostile to Islam. We stress the importance of martyrdom operations against the enemy.”

Sept 10: (Al-Jazeera videotape) “He who wants to learn loyalty, sincerity, magnanimity and courage in support of religion ... should follow in the footsteps of (the September 11 attackers).”

Oct 18: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) “We will go on fighting you and we will carry on martyrdom operations. We reserve the right to retaliate ... against all countries that take part in this unjust (Iraqi) war, namely Britain, Spain, Australia, Poland, Japan and Italy.”

— 2004 —

Jan 4: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) “The occupation of Iraq is only a link in the chain of evil of the Zionists and crusaders. The total occupation of the other Gulf countries will follow on the path of control and hegemony over the entire world.”

April 15: (Al-Arabiya audiotape) “I present a reconciliation initiative ... to stop operations against all (European) countries if they promise not to be aggressive towards Muslims.”

Oct 29: (Al-Jazeera videotape) “Despite the fact that we are into the fourth year after September 11, Bush is still misleading you.”

— 2006 —

Jan 19: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) Bin Laden, in his first aired message in over a year, threatens fresh attacks against the United States but also offered the American people a conditional “long term truce.”

April 23: (Al-Jazeera audiotape) “I call upon the mujahedeen (holy warriors) and their supporters in Sudan and its surroundings ... to prepare to lead a prolonged war against the crusader robbers in western Sudan.”

May 23: (Internet audiotape) Bin Laden says he masterminded the September 11 attacks and convicted Frenchman Zacarias Moussaoui had no part in them.

Sept 7: Al-Jazeera broadcasts previously unseen footage it said showed bin Laden and Al-Qaeda suicide hijackers preparing for the September 11 attacks.

— 2007 —

July 15: (Internet videotape) “The happy (person) is the one chosen by Allah to be a martyr,” bin Laden said in a short clip carried by the Washington-based SITE Intelligence Group, which said the footage was old, but did not give an estimated date.

doc/jkb

09/06/2007 21:30 GMT

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=192982&s=&i=&t=A_chronology_of_Bin_Laden_tapes


594 posted on 09/08/2007 9:12:13 AM PDT by WestCoastGal (***81***)
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To: milford421; WestCoastGal

“Regarding the use of the 4’s, (which callme made reference to), could this be the fourth target? Say in LA? LAX specifically?”

Unless the “4s” were in an original Arabic text issued by as-Sahab (with the same paragraph breaks and the same line breaks in Arabic as in English), or unless this particular English translation was posted on a jihadi forum somewhere to make sure it came across in English as they intended, it would likely be a coincidence.

Recently, they have been obsessing on “3s”. But they were stuck on 4s for a long time (9/11 was 4 teams and some of the other post-9/11 attacks have been 4 simultaneous hits).

But the original 2003 three-city threat was what started the first thread, and there have been similar vague, unverifiable threats made since then - - as recently as last month.

Unless it is an “official” al Qaeda speech or tape, it is hard to figure out what are the 999 threats out of 1000 that are “trash talk” and which 1 out of 1000 is legit.

Anyone can get on a forum and talk. But this was UBL himself.


595 posted on 09/08/2007 9:32:14 AM PDT by callmejoe
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Placemark


596 posted on 09/08/2007 9:47:20 AM PDT by good old days
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To: callmejoe; All
It would be worth checking out the sites to see if they are still pulled.

I think things will be quiet for now, which is worrisome.

597 posted on 09/08/2007 9:51:48 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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To: All

I took the 4’s to be the four men he mentioned in the video Bush, Blair, Brown and Sarkosy. I took it to mean that they are marked men at this point. And in the three’s are Cheny, Rumsfield and Pearle who they already killed. I think back before 9/11 and the killing of the Leader of the Northern Alliance on 9/9 and then 9/11 happening.


598 posted on 09/08/2007 10:41:49 AM PDT by Mata6858 (We the people of the US in order for a perfect union)
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To: milford421

September 7, 2007
Only his hairdresser knows for sure

Characteristically, no one is picking up on the significance of the dye job. The Shafi’i school of Islamic jurisprudence forbids men and women to dye their hair black “except when the intention is jihad...as a show of strength to unbelievers” (’Umdat al-Salik e.4.4). Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, in his The Lawful and the Prohibited in Islam, says essentially the same thing: “Some of the early Muslims, including some sahabah [companions of Muhammad] such as Sa’d ibn Abi Waqqas, ‘Uqbah ibn ‘Amr, al-Hassan, al-Hussein, Jarir, and others permitted the use of black dye. Some scholars, on the other hand, do not consider the use of black dye as permissible except during time of war, when the enemy might be impressed by the fact that all the soldiers of the Muslim army look young.”

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/018075.php


599 posted on 09/08/2007 10:45:23 AM PDT by DAVEY CROCKETT (The Pigs are about to take over the barnyard!)
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To: callmejoe

I just watched the whole video, and I agree with you.

1. NY(Capitalism)
2. DC(Democracy)
3. Houston (Oil/Energy)
4. LA (He mentioned the disgraces of Hollywood)


600 posted on 09/08/2007 11:17:30 AM PDT by drymans wife (They is nothing like the mind of a TM;'er)
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