Experts warn of attack clues in Bin Laden video
Agence France-Presse ^ | September 8, 2007 | AFP
Posted on 09/08/2007 11:48:23 AM PDT by MaestroLC
WASHINGTON - Intelligence experts scouring the latest video of Osama bin Laden for clues warned on Saturday that his message offers hints that Al-Qaeda is planning another attack on US interests.
In his first video appearance in three years, the elusive Al-Qaeda chief mocks the United States as "weak" and vows to escalate fighting in Iraq, all the while using language similar to the kind used ahead of other past attacks.
At times, bin Laden speaks directly to Americans, using plain language that "appears to be crafted in a way as to be understood by the average person on the street in Europe or in the US," said intelligence analyst Ben Venzke.
The latest video "contains phrases ... which serve as indicators that OBL's message is part of Al-Qaeda's efforts to fulfill its requirements to provide warning and a chance for the enemy to change its ways before executing an attack," Venzke said.
However, the message, delivered days ahead of the sixth anniversary of the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States in which 3,000 people were killed, gives no clues "to indicate when an attack ... would be attempted," he said.
The language, saying peace will befall "he who follows the guidance," mirrors that used in bin Laden's "European truce offer" of April 2004 in which he said: "Peace upon those who followed the right path."
The similarity in terms is important because the 2004 message appealing to Europeans to change their ways was the final message aimed specifically at Europeans before the July 2005 bombings in London which killed 52 people, said Venzke of the Virginia-based Intel Center.
In the video, bin Laden also discusses current events but issues no direct threats, and offers two ways of ending the Iraq war, according to a transcript released by the US-based SITE Intelligence Group which monitors Islamic militant websites.
"The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you," he says.
The second is to do away with the US democratic system of government, which he says merely serves the interests of major corporations.
"Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn't play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security," he says, adding: Allah is our Guardian and helper, while you have no guardian or helper."
Bin Laden appears in the video with a trimmed beard that is apparently dyed black, hiding the streaks of gray seen in previous footage, and wears a beige cloak over a white robe.
According to Azzam Tamimi, head of the London-based Institute of Islamic Political Thought, the beard dye is a "sign of war."
The rigorous Salafi Islamic school to which bin Laden belongs "condones this dye only in preparation for war," he said.
A US intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity said agencies believe the video is authentic and was produced as recently as August because of a reference to the 62nd anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima on August 6.
"I think people are pretty confident it is his voice," the official said.
Prior to this release, the last video message from bin Laden, who has a 25-million-dollar US bounty on his head, came in October 2004, while a CIA-authenticated audio clip was posted on the Internet in May 2006.
CIA Director Michael Hayden on Friday also warned that Al-Qaeda was planning new, large-scale attacks on US targets.
"Our analysts assess with high confidence that Al-Qaeda's central leadership is planning high impact plots against the American homeland," Hayden said.
In the rambling message, bin Laden mocks the United States for its troubles in Iraq and the effect of the September 11, 2001 attacks.
"Despite America being the greatest economic power and possessing the most powerful and up-to-date military arsenal as well ... 19 young men were able -- by the grace of Allah, the most high -- to change the direction of its compass," he said in a reference to the September 11 hijackers.
"America is weak despite its apparent strength," he says.
Believed to be hiding in the remote tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, bin Laden verbally attacks US President George W. Bush as well as the US Democratic Party, which he says has done little to halt the Iraq war.
Bush, in turn, used the video to support the US military presence in Iraq.
"If Al-Qaeda bothers to mention Iraq, it's because they want to achieve their objectives in Iraq, which is to drive attacks and develop a safe haven," Bush said.
Addressing the American people directly, bin Laden refers to domestic opposition to the Iraq war.
"The world is following your news in regards to your invasion of Iraq, for people have recently come to know that, after several years of tragedies of this war, the vast majority of you want it stopped."
He says the Democrats who now control the US Congress have failed to stop the war, and even "continue to agree to the spending of tens of billions to continue the killing and war there."
Bin Laden also refers to recent US headline stories, referring to "the burden of interest-related debts, insane taxes and real estate mortgages; global warming and its woes."
"To conclude," he says, "I invite you to embrace Islam."
” . . .In the video, bin Laden also discusses current events but issues no direct threats, and offers two ways of ending the Iraq war, according to a transcript released by the US-based SITE Intelligence Group which monitors Islamic militant websites. “The first is from our side, and it is to continue to escalate the killing and fighting against you,” he says. The second is to do away with the US democratic system of government, which he says merely serves the interests of major corporations. “Your security is in your own hands. And every state that doesn’t play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security,” he says, adding: Allah is our Guardian and helper, while you have no guardian or helper.” . . .”
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/070907_bin_laden_transcript.pdf
” . . .the leader of Texas doesn’t like those who give advice.
. . .they have declared the approach of the collapse of the American empire. Among them is the European thinker who anticipated the fall of the Soviet Union, which indeed fell. And it would benefit you to read what he wrote about what comes after the empire in regard to the United States of America.”
The AFP writer seems to have pulled the “every state that doesn’t play with our security has automatically guaranteed its own security” quote from the 10/29/2004 pre-election speech (UBL’s last “Message to the American People”). I reread the transcript of this new speech and cannot find it repeated, but it is worth recalling the 2004 speech in any case since this latest speech named a single state (Texas), which incidentally has three of the ten largest cities - - Houston (4), San Antonio (7), and Dallas (9). Austin is ranked 16.
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0763098.html
If they want to concentrate their attacks on a central location (like they do with car bombs), and they hold to UBL’s apparent 2004 promise literally (to potentially go after the 2004 red states in retaliation and reward 2004 blue states by “guaranteeing” their security), then they may give NYC and DC a pass this coming round and concentrate all their attacks on one state to make it an example. And there is no larger or more currently politically significant red state than Texas.
By following up on his 2004 “advice”, he could sow political chaos leading into 2008 and may even believe (rightly or wrongly) that he can encourage individual states at some point in the future to separate themselves to protect their individual interests. He may actually believe that he can cause the United States to splinter just as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics splintered into the current fifteen separate nations.
In that way, over the longer term, they might be able to realize the common Islamist dream of “the destruction of America”.
It all boils down to whether we interpret the October 2004 “Message to the American People” as a conditional truce for individual states who do not vote for “pro-war” candidates. Or whether the Arabic word for “state” only meant “nation-state” and there was never any implication that he was trying to tamper with the election a few days later.
If he meant the individual 50 states in the context of the 2004 speech (addressed directly to Americans and not the world at large), then at least through the 2008 election, the only cities of the ten largest cities which would be targets would be the three Texas cities (Houston, San Antonio, and Dallas) and Phoenix.
Thanks Ian, troubling times we live in.
KFI radio last night (Zeigler) was thinking out loud that the O.C. Al Qaeda might be the one writing OBL’s speeches now. Which is less troubling and more sad, but also slightly amusing. Adam Gadahn is the former pizza teenager guy turned big-time AQ spokesman!
Let me preface my post by stating I have always believed the path to victory in Iraq is through the streets of Tehran and Damascus. That being said there may be a way to achieve victory over Iran without the public impotence of sanctions and diplomatic maneuvers (One need only glance 90 miles south of Florida to recognize my point.)
History has also shown us that bombing, whether specifically targeted sites or en masse population centers have the tendency to unify a people rather than destroy a national will. The mullahs and Ahmidinijad are counting on the US and it's Allies to do what they have been unable to do for quite sometime. They will make the United States an enemy in the eyes of the Iranian population at large.
There are three subgroups of Iranians; those who lived under the Western influenced Shah, the militants (their baby-boomers) and the Under-30s who are definitely tired of the theocracy.
Consider the United States recognizing the Shah of Iran's son as the rightful government of Iran and supporting him to form a government in exile. Second action; transmitting information into Iran via radio, television and Internet regarding protests around the country. The third step would be providing free gasoline near border areas, create "Petrol Refugees".
That would cause the regime to lose control of the internal movements of the population and social and political breakdown on a local level due to resource shortages.
I know it's a skeleton but it can be fleshed out a bit.