Majority of Republicans Doubt Theory of Evolution

Gallup News Service ^ | 11 June 2007 | Frank Newport

[Alter Kaker]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The majority of Republicans in the United States do not believe the theory of evolution is true and do not believe that humans evolved over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. This suggests that when three Republican presidential candidates at a May debate stated they did not believe in evolution, they were generally in sync with the bulk of the rank-and-file Republicans whose nomination they are seeking to obtain.

Independents and Democrats are more likely than Republicans to believe in the theory of evolution. But even among non-Republicans there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution adequately explains where humans came from.

The data from several recent Gallup studies suggest that Americans' religious behavior is highly correlated with beliefs about evolution. Those who attend church frequently are much less likely to believe in evolution than are those who seldom or never attend. That Republicans tend to be frequent churchgoers helps explain their doubts about evolution.

The data indicate some seeming confusion on the part of Americans on this issue. About a quarter of Americans say they believe both in evolution's explanation that humans evolved over millions of years and in the creationist explanation that humans were created as is about 10,000 years ago.

Broad Patterns of Belief in Evolution

The theory of evolution as an explanation for the origin and development of life has been controversial for centuries, and, in particular, since the 1859 publication of Charles Darwin's famous The Origin of Species. Although many scientists accept evolution as the best theoretical explanation for diversity in forms of life on Earth, the issue of its validity has risen again as an important issue in the current 2008 presidential campaign. Two recent Republican debates have included questions to the candidates about evolution. Three candidates -- Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Tom Tancredo -- indicated in response to a question during the May 3 debate that they did not believe in the theory of evolution, although they have attempted to clarify their positions in the weeks since.

Several recent Gallup Polls conducted in May and June indicate that a significant number of Americans have doubts about the theory of evolution.  

One such question was included in a May Gallup Panel survey:

Now thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth, do you, personally, believe in evolution, or not?

	Yes, believe in evolution	No, do not	No opinion
2007 May 21-24		49	48	2

It is important to note that this question included a specific reference to "thinking about how human beings came to exist on Earth . . ." that oriented the respondents toward an explicit consideration of the implication of evolution for man's origin. Results may have been different without this introductory phrase.

With that said, Americans' responses to this question are essentially split down the middle. About half say they do believe in evolution and about half say they do not.

A second question included in a June 1-3 USA Today/Gallup poll asked about evolution side by side with a similar question about creationism:

Next, we'd like to ask about your views on two different explanations for the origin and development of life on earth. Do you think -- [ITEMS ROTATED] -- is -- [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, probably false, (or) definitely false]?

A. Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		18%	35	16	28	3	53	44

B. Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years

	Definite- ly true	Probably true	Probably false	Definite- ly false	No opinion		Total true	Total false
2007 Jun 1-3		39%	27	16	15	3	66	31

These results are similar to those from the question asked in May. A little more than half of Americans say evolution -- as defined in this question wording -- is definitely or probably true. Forty-four percent say that it is probably or definitely false.  

In contrast, even more Americans, two-thirds, say the theory of creationism is definitely or probably true.

A separate Gallup Poll trend question -- also asked in May -- gave Americans three choices about human beings' origins. Responses to this question found that 43% of Americans choose the alternative closest to the creationist perspective, that "God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so." A substantial 38% say human beings evolved, but with God guiding the process. Another 14% favored an interpretation of evolution arguing that God had no part in the process, leaving a total of 52% who say humans evolved with or without God's direction.

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?

	Man developed, with God guiding	Man developed, but God had no part in process	God created man in present form	Other/ No opinion
	%	%	%	%
2007 May 10-13	38	14		43	4
2006 May 8-11	36	13		46	5
2004 Nov 7-10	38	13	45	4
2001 Feb 19-21		37	12	45	5
1999 Aug 24-26	40	9	47		4
1997 Nov 6-9	39	10	44	7
1993 Jun 23-26	35		11	47	7
1982 Jan	38	9	44	9

To summarize the results of these three questions about evolution and human origins:

• Across the three question wordings, the data show consistently that about half of Americans agree with the theory of evolution, believe that the theory of evolution is probably or definitely true, or believe that humans developed over million of years with or without God's guidance.

• Belief in the idea that humans were created pretty much as is 10,000 years ago is somewhat more dependent on the way in which this concept is measured. A little more than 4 out of 10 Americans -- when presented with three alternatives -- say they believe that God created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago. At the same time, two-thirds of Americans in a stand-alone question say they believe in the theory of "creationism" -- defined as the idea that humans were created in their present form 10,000 years ago.

It might seem contradictory to believe that humans were created in their present form at one time within the past 10,000 years and at the same time believe that humans developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life. But, based on an analysis of the two side-by-side questions asked this month about evolution and creationism, it appears that a substantial number of Americans hold these conflicting views.

View of Evolution and View of Creationism Numbers Represent % of Total Sample
		View of Creationism
		Definitely true	Probably true	Probably false	Definitely false
			%	%	%	%
View of Evolution	Definitely true	3	1		2	11
	Probably true	5	14	12	3
		Probably false	6	8	1	1
	Definitely false	24		3	*	1
* Less than 0.5%

These results show that:

• 24% of Americans believe that both the theory of evolution and the theory of creationism are probably or definitely true
• 41% believe that creationism is true, and that evolution is false
• 28% believe that evolution is true, but that creationism is false

• 3% either believe that both are false or have no opinion about at least one of the theories

Without further research, it's not possible to determine the exact thinking process of those who agreed that both the theory of evolution and creationism are true. It may be, however, that some respondents were seeking a way to express their views that evolution may have been initiated by or guided by God, and told the interviewer that they agreed with both evolution and creationism in an effort to express this more complex attitude.

Importance of Religion

It is important to remember that all three questions in this analysis included wording that explicitly focused the respondents on the origin of human beings.

This wording may have made Americans think about the implications of the theory of evolution in terms of humans being special creatures as reflected in religious teachings and in particular in the Judeo-Christian story of human origins as related in the book of Genesis. USA Today recently quoted Christian conservative and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer as saying: "Most of us don't think that we're just apes with trousers."

Thus, it is not surprising to find that many of those who do not believe in the theory of evolution justify that belief with explicitly religious explanations: 

(Asked of those who do not believe in evolution) What is the most important reason why you would say you do not believe in evolution? [OPEN-ENDED]      

	2007 May 21-24
	%
I believe in Jesus Christ	19
I believe in the almighty God, creator of Heaven and Earth		16
Due to my religion and faith	16
Not enough scientific evidence to prove otherwise	14
I believe in what I read in the Bible	12
I'm a Christian	9
I don't believe humans come from beasts/monkeys	3
Other	5
No reason in particular	2
No opinion	3

The majority of these responses are clearly religious in nature. It is fascinating to note that some Americans simply justified their objection to evolution by statements of general faith and belief. Although the New Testament does not include many explicit references to the origin of humans in the words of Jesus, 19% of Americans state that they do not believe in evolution because they believe in Jesus Christ. Other religious justifications focus on statements of belief in God, general faith concerns, references to the Bible, and the statement that "I'm a Christian." A relatively small number of this group justify their disbelief of evolution by saying more specifically that they do not believe that there is enough scientific evidence to prove the theory and/or that they simply do not believe that humans come from beasts or monkeys.

The graph shows the relationship between church attendance and response to the straightforward question of belief in evolution.

The group of Americans who attend church weekly -- about 40% in this sample -- are strongly likely to reject the theory of evolution. The group of Americans who attend church seldom or never -- also about 40% -- have the mirror image opinion and are strongly likely to accept the theory of evolution.

Republicans Most Likely to Reject Evolution

As noted previously, belief in evolution has been injected into the political debate already this year, with much attention given to the fact three Republican presidential candidates answered a debate question by saying that they did not believe in evolution.

It appears that these candidates are, in some ways, "preaching to the choir" in terms of addressing their own party's constituents -- the group that matters when it comes to the GOP primaries. Republicans are much more likely to be religious and attend church than independents or Democrats in general. Therefore, it comes as no great surprise to find that Republicans are also significantly more likely not to believe in evolution than are independents and Democrats. 

Bottom Line

The data in this analysis were measured in the context of questions about the origin and development of human beings. It is apparent that many Americans simply do not like the idea that humans evolved from lower forms of life. This appears to be substantially based on a belief in the story of creation as outlined in the Bible -- that God created humans in a process that, taking the Bible literally, occurred about 10,000 years ago.

Americans who say they do not believe in the theory of evolution are highly likely to justify this belief by reference to religion, Jesus Christ, or the Bible. Furthermore, there is a strong correlation between high levels of personal religiosity and doubts about evolution.

Being religious in America today is strongly related to partisanship, with more religious Americans in general much more likely to be Republicans than to be independents or Democrats. This relationship helps explain the finding that Republicans are significantly more likely than independents or Democrats to say they do not believe in evolution. When three Republican presidential candidates said in a May debate that they did not believe in evolution, the current analysis suggests that many Republicans across the country no doubt agreed.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 1-3, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 203 Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 804 non-Catholics, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Roccus]

I do not believe in Gallup polls!

[tflabo]

"After all, what makes ‘man’, man? Is it our flesh or is it the Spirit God put in us?"

I heard a rabbi once explain that 'man is alive as long as there is breath.' Therefore when man dies and breath is no more what is left? spirit! I believe the answer to your stated question is man survives only with the spirit within but the spirit lives within and also beyond the flesh and ceasing of breath.

[Stultis]

There is absolutely no doubt about it here. It’s very sad that so many do believe in evolution.

I really have no problem with people believing in evolution just so long as they don't try and trump it as a Fact!

And I have no problem with people being (antievolutionary) creationists, just so long as they don't try and use political means or pressure tactics to force creationist views into science classrooms that have not independently earned scientific standing on merit.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

Also have decreased the amount of crevolist threads that personally read much less actually comment on. The hostility—on both sides—can do that.

[Popman]

It's not a choice you have to make. The two are not mutually exclusive.

I understand that, but according to comment at the end the article by the poster, I fail to be a modern man if I reject evolution?

[Continental Soldier]

Why would God’s children have to ‘repent?’

[Stultis]

Ping to preceding.

[Alter Kaker]

You mean like the strategy we used in the last election?

In the last election, the GOP assumed that its voters were uneducated and stupid. It thought GOP voters were too stupid to care about things like billion dollar bridges to nowhere in Alaska, or about the largest increase in entitlement programs in history; GOP leaders thought that they could still count on GOP voters to vote for them if they mouthed the same empty platitudes about small government, traditional values and strong defense.

They appealed only to uneducated voters, assumed they were stupid and they lost. The GOP isn't the stupid party and we lose elections when elected leaders fool ourselves into thinking we are.

[ndt]

"God is in His heaven... He’s the only One who makes sense."

He might make sense, but what I want to know is does he also make microwave ovens, new antibiotics and missile defense shields? Science does.

[yankeedame]

My dad used to say we had family that swung by their necks but never by their tails.

LOL! My mother used to say, "If the Lord can get up and move a rock on Easter, you can get off your tail and get some work done!"

[TalBlack]

“humans, unlike animals, are not just a body, but instead are made up of both a body and a soul”.

Almost no one considers this point in the debate.

Whatever was happening on the planet earth for however long doesn’t matter any more than what was happening ANYWHERE in the void of space ABESENT MAN AND HIS HOLY SPRIT.

We ask if a tree falling in the forest makes a sound.

The matter that comprises the earth is inert, meaningless UNTIL God is present. “Life” REQUIRES the sprit informing it or it is merely a system of matter no different than a stone or any other matter.

[Jedi Master Pikachu]

a) Christ died once for Mankind.

b) God stated that God created the universe in a particular order, at a particular date, that is at odds with the Macroevolutionary model--that, along with Macroevolution being very far from a watertight hypothesis, is why so many Christians are Creationists.

[svcw]

there is not one easy answer concernng this...

Sure there is “evolution” or how about “survival of the fittest”?

[ex-snook]

It’s only a theory. What the hell does it matter what is believed? Discussing how many days did God take to create the universe! What a crock. The GOP needs this like double vision.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Hey, I avoid them, too. The evolutionists have an undeserved sense of superiority, so anyone who challenges their dogma is immediately ridiculed and heckled. It’s a miniature Inquisition.

[gondramB]

>>The party will either go into the 21st century and win elections, or it will refuse to modernize and continue to lose. I hope party leaders have the foresight to realize that opposing modernity is a losing strategy.<<

One thing is that wise nations don’t vote on technical things.

The space shuttle had a gash but they launched anyway - you don’t vote on that sort of thing or which parts to use in a new plane or hurricane predictions etc. And voting on evolution is fine but it says more about the media and society than about science.

The problem with the government is similar to the problem with academics, a lingering feeling that we’ve put the wrong people in charge rather than a desire to make the decisions of academics or daily governance by polls.

Things are already screwed up well before a school board votes on evolution - and they would see that if suddenly there was a move to vote on alternatives to electricity theory or engineering.

Actually they probably wouldn’t see.

[Recovering_Democrat]

...even among non-Republicans there appears to be a significant minority who doubt that evolution adequately explains where humans came from.

I have found that even among people who believe evolution's premise of species changing over time (for whatever reason) there are many who do not believe evolution alone explains life on earth and the splendor of the universe.

This particular poll seems to bear that out.

[MichaelP]

Greyhound rules!

Mike

[curiosity]

It would be interesting to correlate the acceptance of evolution with supporters of comprehensive immigration reform among active Freepers.

I doubt it is high. There's no correlation among conservative pundints. George Will, Charles Krauthammer, and John Derbyshire are some of the most strident pro-evolution pundints, and yet they all opposed the bill, quite vociferously, I might add. I don't know whether the patterns of Freeper opinion resemble conservative pundint opinion patterns, but barring an evidence to the contrary, I think it's a reasonable working hypothesis to believe they do.

It seems as if many ex-Freepers who are genuine scientists and those who support immigration reform have both been driven from FR.

Lots of Freepers supporting a more restrictive immigration policy and harsher treatment of illegal aliens have also been banned. In addition, FR management has prohibited the posting articles from several websites that support lower levels of immigration and stricter enforcement. People have been banned for even mentioning these websites by name.

[fortheDeclaration]

Either God is impossible or Evolution is.

Nonsense.

Really?

Has Evolution figured out how 'something' evolved from nothing?

Or life from non-life?

What is nonsense is the fairy tale that a single cell (which no one knows how it could come about), has 'evolved' into a human being.

And you can add any amount of zero's to the millions of years you want, it is utter nonsense.

So, to paraphrase Doyle, when you rule out the impossible, whatever is left, no matter how improbable, must be true.

Evolution is a fairy tale for adults who want to believe that they will not face their Creator at a Judgment seat (Rev.20)