Poll Woes For Bush (CBS Poll) Kerry/Edwards 50% - W/Cheney 42%--W Approval@ 47%

cbsnews.com ^ | 02/28/04 | CBS/AP

[KQQL]

The four Democrats still officially seeking their party's presidential nod will debate Sunday for the last time before Super Tuesday, even as a new CBS News poll shows President Bush's approval rating slipping below 50 percent for the first time in that survey.

Some 47% of Americans now approve of the way the President is handling his job, while 44% disapprove.

The same poll shows a John Kerry/John Edwards ticket beating one headed by Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney in the fall election, by a margin of 50 percent to 42 percent.

Whether that difference is due more to the appeal of Kerry and Edwards together or suggests weak voter support for Cheney couldn't be determined in this poll.

In addition, it shows both Kerry and Edwards running about even with Mr. Bush in the fall if they ran without the other on their ticket.

Americans continue to express doubts about the situation in Iraq, and point to the economy and jobs as the issues they are most concerned about.

Still, voters said they expect a Bush win in November, although that view is less pervasive than it was in early January. Now, 48% expect Mr. Bush to win, and 42% see a Democrat winning the presidency. In January, 55% expected the president to be re-elected, and just 31% thought the Democratic candidate could prevail.

Kerry holds a wide lead over Edwards in the poll as the choice of Democratic voters both nationwide and in the ten states that vote on Tuesday.

That lead for the nomination is especially strong among those Democrats who say beating the president is more important than agreeing on the issues.

Both Kerry and Edwards have gained public favor since the Democratic campaign began. More Americans hold favorable views of both men than have unfavorable ones.

And in a sign of how much the Democratic race has changed since the first weeks of the year, one-third of Super Tuesday voters say they are former Howard Dean supporters. Today, most of those voters back John Kerry.

"Countdown to Super Tuesday: The Democrats Debate," sponsored by CBS News, WCBS-TV and The New York Times, will bring together Kerry, Edwards, Al Sharpton and Dennis Kucinich in the CBS Broadcast Center in New York.

[not-an-ostrich]

A combination of propaganda being swallowed by that certain segment (devoid of independent thinking) citizens and the polls are skewered.

[linn37]

very little info on this poll,likely voters,registered voters or adults?

[nailspitter]

The latest Zogby approval rating for Bush is 52% (from his Website). The text says 51% but if you click on the graphic it takes you to the tables and the figures add up to 52%. Anyway, you can usually add 5-10 percent to his figures and get the accurate percentage. He lumps fair in with poor which has often been noted on FR. So this CBS poll seems a bit off.

Rasmussen has Bush at 53%. Since we don't know when this poll was taken or who was polled, it sure looks bogus to me.

[Williams]

Sounds like they may have asked about Kerry & Edwards vs Bush separately, followed by Kerry/Edwards vs Bush/Cheney tickets question. Whether that is a push poll or not....

With some searching we can find the poll questions. It is my opinion that CBS is the worst.

[deport]

.

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=1,294 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"
		George W. Bush	Democrat	Can't Say Until Chosen (vol.)	None/ Won't Vote (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	43	48	5	2	2
	2/12-15/04	42	47	6	0	5
	1/12-15/04	43	45	7	1	4
	12/21-22/03	49	40	6	1	4
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or George W. Bush?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	46	47	2	1	4
	2/12-15/04	43	48	1	3	5
						.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	45	45	2	3	5
	2/12-15/04	50	41	1	3	5
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards or Bush and Cheney?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	42	50	1	1	6
	Republicans	88	8	1	2	1
	Democrats	8	88	0	1	3
	Independents	41	44	3	2	10

[sinkspur]

You're a Brigadier, Doughty. It would surprise the hell out of me if you had written anything differently than you did.

You've NEVER liked Bush, because he doesn't measure up to Buchanan, in your mind.

[raloxk]

odd that Bush does better against Kerry alone and Edwards alone but much worse against a combined Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Doesnt seem right.

[deport]

Doesnt seem right.

---

Why not....... Kerry/Edwards is getting some additional support from the Edwards group that wouldn't support Kerry if Edwards wasn't on the ticket, imo.

[Torie]

Bush is strong with his base. He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish (and thus the tax cuts for the rich charge has more traction with a large deficit in play), and the Iraq situation has not resolved itself, and he has been blasted by the Dems in their primary, without much of a riposte. If Bush loses, it won't be because of the disaffection of hyper-political FR types, that were troubled by his compassionate conservatism, or robust free trade policies, or the like. It will be because swing voters in the middle, swing against him, and Kerry finesses his warts (and he has them, as most do who win nominations in a non-annoitment situation).

[lasereye]

The most significant thing in most of these polls is Bush's approval is below 50%.

[raloxk]

Also it looks like there are too many DEMs in the survey.

If DEMs and GOP each favor their candidates by teh same margin and independents favor DEMS by only 3 points, how does that translate into a 8 point margin for DEMS???

If each group is assigned 33%, GW Bush gets 45%, not 42%

If DEMS are 35% and GOP is 31% and Independets are 33% GW Bush gets 43.6%

Even when DEMs go to 36% and GOP to 30% (independents at 33%), GW Bush Gets 42.8%.

This poll roughly has a break down of 29% GOP, 37% DEM and 33% Independent. Thats gives GW Bush just over 42%

Can anyone tell me the last time the make up of an election's turn-out was only 29% GOP and 37% DEM???

[KQQL]

OF COURSE CBS News wouldn't report it, but here are details for the poll from http://pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

-----------------------

Kerry 47% - W 46%
W 45% -Edwrds 45%
Kerry/Edwards 50% - W/Cheney 42%

W Approval @ 47%
CBS Poll
MOE+/-3% (Reg Voters) 02/24-27/04

[KQQL]

lol...you beat me to it...Looks like BIAS CRAPO CBS IS HIDING THE DATA !!

[DoughtyOne]

I believe that George Bush is much more personable that Pat. I believe that he could have been a much better force for good than he has been.

I support his efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. In that region he understands that you don't give terrorists any quarter, and he's right on target there. I am proud of his efforts there. Drop on down to the West Bank and all of a sudden he seems to believe that terrorists have reasons for their actions, Israel is a major cause of it's own problems, and Yasser Arafat will die sometime in 2042 of natural causes, after masterminding nearly a century of terrorism without a single US President taking his sorry ass out.

We know that Iraqis are coming across our southern border. Since Bush announced his 'not really an amnesty' amensty, illegal immigration flow into the US has grown exponentially.

While I did support Buchanan, and still do some of his policy, I'd not pull out the stops to back him again. It's a defeatist game to splinter the (can't believe I'm going to say this) 'conservative' vote.

There is no concervative running this year. That's it in a nutshell.

One way or another from 2005 to 2009, this nation will continue it's degenerative decendency into the ceaspool that is socialist european life. God help us.

[Torie]

Self identified party orientation tends to fluxuate with the popularity of the candidates. Thus in part, but only in part, the numbers move in tandem. Still it is odd that Edwards makes that much of a difference. If he does by November (assuming this poll is accurate in finding an Edwards bounce), that will be seminal event, assuming he is on the ticket. Of course, maybe it is a Cheney drag, but that strikes me as improbable; we shall see. Typically, Veep nominees can only hurt, and not help much.

[Torie]

Maybe swing voters want Edwards in the Veep slot, but not the top spot, or maybe they hate Cheney. Maybe. Or maybe the numbers are bogus. So many possibilities, so little time.

[Kuksool]

{He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish}

Good point. Many people lost their jobs during the Recession of the early 1990's. Later, they experienced good economic times under Clinton, and now lost their jobs due to Outsourcing. Thus, there are a lot of people who associate the phrase, "President Bush" with job losses.

[KQQL]

lol...bogus push poll for edwards

[deport]

that's how pollsters push the numbers they want by adjusting the makeup of their survey..... The 2000 election went this way, assuming the validity of the exit polls......

39 Democrat
34 Republican
27 Independent

[Torie]

You are a fine chap, sir, but where I suspect we differ the most, is that I'm bullish on America, and you are in an angst mode.

Granted, there is a 40 trillion dollar actuarial deficit in the social security and medicare programs, hot off the press from the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank. Most of that is from medicare. To close it, payroll tax rates would have to double from 16% or so, to 32% or so, and that won't happen. Nor can it be financed by a soak the rich income tax regime. We are going to a single payer socialized medical system within the next generation (20 years). The box is simply getting too tight to squeeze out of.