[deport]

.

CBS News Poll. Feb. 24-27, 2004. N=1,294 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (for all registered voters).
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today, do you think you would probably vote for George W. Bush or probably vote for the Democratic candidate?"
		George W. Bush	Democrat	Can't Say Until Chosen (vol.)	None/ Won't Vote (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	43	48	5	2	2
	2/12-15/04	42	47	6	0	5
	1/12-15/04	43	45	7	1	4
	12/21-22/03	49	40	6	1	4
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [see below], the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, would you vote for [see below] or George W. Bush?"
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	46	47	2	1	4
	2/12-15/04	43	48	1	3	5
						.
		George W. Bush	John Edwards	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	2/24-27/04	45	45	2	3	5
	2/12-15/04	50	41	1	3	5
						.
"If the 2004 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were John Kerry for president and John Edwards for vice president, the Democrats, and George W. Bush for president and Dick Cheney for vice president, the Republicans, would you vote for Kerry and Edwards or Bush and Cheney?"
						.
		Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Won't Vote (vol.)	Depends (vol.)	Don't Know
		%	%	%	%	%
	ALL	42	50	1	1	6
	Republicans	88	8	1	2	1
	Democrats	8	88	0	1	3
	Independents	41	44	3	2	10

[raloxk]

odd that Bush does better against Kerry alone and Edwards alone but much worse against a combined Kerry/Edwards ticket.

Doesnt seem right.

[raloxk]

Also it looks like there are too many DEMs in the survey.

If DEMs and GOP each favor their candidates by teh same margin and independents favor DEMS by only 3 points, how does that translate into a 8 point margin for DEMS???

If each group is assigned 33%, GW Bush gets 45%, not 42%

If DEMS are 35% and GOP is 31% and Independets are 33% GW Bush gets 43.6%

Even when DEMs go to 36% and GOP to 30% (independents at 33%), GW Bush Gets 42.8%.

This poll roughly has a break down of 29% GOP, 37% DEM and 33% Independent. Thats gives GW Bush just over 42%

Can anyone tell me the last time the make up of an election's turn-out was only 29% GOP and 37% DEM???

[ambrose]

Interesting how the numbers shift with a Kerry/Edwards ticket over head to heads. Probably meaningless..

[FRgal4u]

The actual numbers are revealing -

1) The weaker number on a two ticket races - I don't think it is due to the strength of Kerry+Edwards, but rather the weakness of Cheney. Hardcore conservatives still ignore the huge warning sign, Cheney is a liability, especially to Independents. Put Cheney in an advisory role, off the ticket he goes, Bush need someone more vigourous in campaigns and drawn in the Indpendent votes.

2) The Split numbers on party votes - it is remarkable to see a 42 vs 50 split when you have a 88/8 R, 8/88 D and 41/44 I..I don't know the exact distribution of R/D/I in the sample..It is definitely not R = D, R is likely the smallest sample there or they oversample the Ds. If you believe R = D with I in the middle, the composite could not be that far apart - 42/50. The R will cancel the D and the 41/44 in I is not enough to push a 42/50 split.

3) Discrepancy of the approval rating and actual ticket vote - assume a 47% approval is correct, a 42% ticket vote is very low. Maybe it reflects the weakness of Cheney, and indeed the top of ticket Bush vs rest vote is consistently in the 46-49% range in the Rammussen daily tracking poll.

I wish the WH start to move aggressively to repair the damage, and seriously considering the future of Cheney. Put Cheney in an advisory role, put someone can energize the party. If Bush losses the independents by more than 5% this fall, he can't win regardless how many hard conservatives will go out to vote this fall. He needs the swing states with lots of Independents to win - if he lose those, he can write PA off and if he losses OH on the jobs issue, he is toast.