Replies

Bush is strong with his base. He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish (and thus the tax cuts for the rich charge has more traction with a large deficit in play), and the Iraq situation has not resolved itself, and he has been blasted by the Dems in their primary, without much of a riposte. If Bush loses, it won't be because of the disaffection of hyper-political FR types, that were troubled by his compassionate conservatism, or robust free trade policies, or the like. It will be because swing voters in the middle, swing against him, and Kerry finesses his warts (and he has them, as most do who win nominations in a non-annoitment situation).

{He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish}

Good point. Many people lost their jobs during the Recession of the early 1990's. Later, they experienced good economic times under Clinton, and now lost their jobs due to Outsourcing. Thus, there are a lot of people who associate the phrase, "President Bush" with job losses.

To: DoughtyOne

Bush is strong with his base. He is having trouble because job growth is sluggish (and thus the tax cuts for the rich charge has more traction with a large deficit in play), and the Iraq situation has not resolved itself, and he has been blasted by the Dems in their primary, without much of a riposte. If Bush loses, it won't be because of the disaffection of hyper-political FR types, that were troubled by his compassionate conservatism, or robust free trade policies, or the like. It will be because swing voters in the middle, swing against him, and Kerry finesses his warts (and he has them, as most do who win nominations in a non-annoitment situation).

29 posted on 02/28/2004 7:39:20 PM PST by Torie

Bush is very strong with his base. I do not believe that base is strong with conservatism. Further, I do not believe that base is as large as some think. I don't believe 40% of Republicans are happy with President Bush. Californians are so upset with him that they have introduced a new proposition 187 to block any further state funds being used to foot the bill for illegals. If it does as well as it did the last time, what is that going to say about Bush's (no-amnesty) amnesty? The guy is totally out to lunch on that topic, and is seemingly doing everything possible to kill his chance to get California's 54 electoral votes.

I agree with your assessment of the job growth issue and Iraq resolving itself. For the good of the country, I hope both those issues are off the table by the fall. Your comments about the primary giving the dems the stage unchallenged for the most part, are correct. I must point out that Bush's dad went through this same process. I hope that his son can go to school on that.

Conventionally I think you are right about disaffection to a degree. The middle is the swing, and it may swing away from Bush. That would hurt. Torie, there are many people who do not vote. For some reason, at some point in time, they have opted out. If Bush isn't careful this fall the vote could be smaller than it has been in some time.

I am a hyper-political FR type. I care what happens to this nation. I do not see this president stopping our downward spiral. If Bush is lucky, very few people will agree with me about that. That will mean one of two things. Either I am wrong to have adopted the policies that I support, or this nation is bein irreparably harmed by a lack of support for them.

For the good of the nation, I'll say that I hope I am completely out of touch. I will point out that I harped on illegal immigration, lapsed entry visas and that whole quagmire for a decade and one a half before 09/11/2001. Today immigration policy is just as low a priority as it was before 09/11/2001. We still allow immigration from terrorist states. We still have open borders. We still allow trade to pass our borders around 98.5% unchecked. It's only a matter of time until the chickens come home to roost.