Posted on 04/10/2016 5:02:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Those in the know are now spreading the word. Read it here first!
Earlier I had a different Note, and different stuff written. Now I can tell you that Ted Cruz is the winner, I can prove it for most people. Yes read it again, Ted Cruz has won the nomination.
Trump is letting people go as we all know. Florida, Ohio, and other battleground States have seen most positions slashed. Staff in his Headquarters have been let go as well even when they were performing critical roles. Trump did not even have a New York Team until last week. He is growing teams in some States, but those teams will be laid off later just as he has done to any State he considers “safe”. Trump is not spending the money needed to secure a campaign team, he thinks force of personality will win. That was his undoing.
The Nation will wake up after the New York, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware election to the very same title as I have posted. “Ted Cruz wins the Nomination”.
So how did Ted Cruz do it? It starts in 2014. Ted Cruz decided he was going to run for President. So he hires Cambridge Analytica, some top people from the Romney Campaign, from the Santorum Campaign, the Ron Paul Campaign, amongst others. Not the top paid people. Often those people are there for show only, no Ted Cruz hired the real talent. Ramping up for 2016 Ted made the strategic goal to win his “lane”, to prepare for a Contested Convention, to have the strongest volunteer base, and finally… to win the data war like no one has ever won the data war before.
So this leads up to New York and current wins that have been talked about, mentioned, or alluded to.
New York
Donald Trump ran from efforts to secure California and Colorado for a reason. At first he utterly was bored with Ted Cruz stumping in New York. After all the media, his campaign, the polls… aka the yes men, the yes men, and the Pundits who never seem to score Ted Cruz properly, all were saying Trump was going to win in New York. So why even bother? Until his campaign team studied what areas Ted Cruz was doing, checked the election laws for New York, and hit the panic button (I wonder who is getting fired over this failure). Oh and Trump’s campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican.
Trump has been polling above 50%, so the man who really does not know politics assumed he would clean up in New York. His problem is that you need to win 50% in each of the 27 Congressional Districts to get all of the delegates. This is where his headache is beginning. Ted Cruz is campaigning in districts no Republican Presidential candidate has ever campaigned in. This includes the Bronx. With very few Republicans there no normal candidate would take the time. But Ted Cruz can campaign there, win the conservatives, and get potentially over 50%.
Did your eyes get wide? Yes, Ted Cruz can win some of these small Republican population CD’s. Now it is unlikely that Ted really takes a lot of them, with Kasich as a spoiler. But it is potentially possible Trump can end up 3rd in some CD’s. Not so many as I would wish would happen, but enough to make the Pundits, the Yes Men, and the Yes Men (doh! I mean pollsters, media, and Trump team) to all say that Trump got shellacked in his home turf. Trump may win the popular vote, but his delegate total is not going to meet his expectations and those silly Yes Men will all be saying that Ted Cruz is going to make it a Contested Convention.
Pennsylvania
Polling currently shows Trump up at 39%, but that’s 39%… You read that right. Ted Cruz at 30% and Kasich at 24%. Kasich lost 5% in Wyoming and it is reasonable to think he will lose as much or more in Penn State. Which means Ted Cruz, who often surges in the undecides and those who leave other candidates, can quite easily pass Trump here..
Connecticut and Montana
Libertarian, strongly, especially in Republican ranks. Expect these to be #NeverTrump and pro-Cruz.
Delaware and Rhode Island
One closed, one Open. First is 16 delegates, the second 19. No polls, no details, but they are not in the South, which is an important note. Still I concede these States because really… It does not matter in the final math. A win here for Cruz makes it that much more painful for Trump as he gets pummeled to the Convention.
Indiana
Indiana is already a losing proposition for Trump (link) (link)
Washington
Caucus State, closed, and Ted Cruz has almost entirely secured the Delegates there with no issues. Trump did an unforced error when he sent a Delegate list to Washington DC instead of Washington State. His supporters had no list when the Counties were doing their votes. The Caucus is heavily predicted for Cruz, I call 40 of 44 for Cruz and all delegates in the delegate selection.
Oregon
Hello to the Trump team in Oregon, we saw you recently organized. Congratulations on getting paid positions. However you are about 4 months too late. We secured so much of Oregon that it will be a Ted Cruz based slate that makes the Delegates. Further your support is far weaker than our support in Oregon. We have tons of evidence of that. 25 for election, 3 from the State, 28 Delegates total. Of the 25 you will win at best 3. Deal with it. If you beg enough to Trump – maybe he will try, but I sincerely doubt it. Be prepared to be fired afterwards by him for not carrying the State or improving his numbers here. Signed the Ted Cruz Oregon Team Narlina Duke, Jeff Reynolds, Michael Harrington, Mark Callahan, Nathan Dahlin, and many more. Let me know if you ever get anyone to actually endorse you openly. I want you to know we have many candidates and a number of State Representatives and Senators on board.
For those not in Oregon, Oregon is firmly in the Ted Cruz camp. We worked hard in making this happen and the pay off is that when Trump finally showed up he has 3rd rate stringers, a few trolls, a few spies, and we have their ranks fully identified. The two major candidates who support Trump will not publicly say so, that is how bad it is here in Oregon for Trump.
Other States
Not knocking any of them, I just have to get to the other side in a concise manner. Nebraska is Ted Cruz, West Virginia is by Congressional District, South Dakota should be Ted Cruz by significant numbers… The tide is switching hard against Trump and he cannot get enough secured for a first ticket win. It is in probability terms a number equal to being stuck by lightening three times in a row. Ted Cruz has got amazing odds of making it a contested convention, and more so, his odds of winning first ticket are better than Trump’s.
Trump will be short by about 140 delegates according to my current math. This includes some insider knowledge, but there you go. That is the MINIMUM shortage by the way. It could exceed 200 delegates even :)
Delegate Fights
Since this is going to be a Contested Convention without to much doubt, we have to look at how the various States are doing. In this regards there is not much room for Trump. The panic button is pushed and he is already deeply behind. More so the remainder of the States lean towards Ted Cruz. Trump spent his load, and the New York run is the end of the line for the Trump Train. Many of the States having had voted are going to lean to Ted Cruz for delegates even if they have not selected their delegates yet. Here is a list of mostly voted States (or voting).
GOP Leader Delegates (link)
Washington (link) (link)
Wisconsin: Delegates here are actually from the candidates Slate by law. Ted Cruz all but 6 :)
Iowa (link)
Tennessee (link)
Louisiana (link)
Colorado (link) (link)
Ohio: Kasich got his Republican friends to make this so each candidate submitted a Slate and the winner gets their Slate approved. Access denied for Trump, but these will be the most rabid of Kasich supporters.
South Carolina (link)
Wyoming: Convention will nominate 14 more delegates on April 16th. Cruz won with 66% in this Caucus State. Delegate list not yet compiled of course until the Convention.
North Dakota (link)
Georgia (link) In Georgia you had to be a PCP elected a year plus ago. Trump was not even considering it. Ted Cruz was :)
Virginia (link)
Utah: 23rd April we get answers how this one goes. Spoiler: Caucus State, Cruz got 70% of the vote.
Missouri: Ted Cruz is inching out Trump in places like St. Louis and St. Charles for delegates. Votes are happening now. We get the full Slate when we win by at least 1 vote. So yeah, kicking ass and taking names in Missouri (only links are Trump ones complaining, wont post those).
Arizona no delegates selected yet, but the Ted Cruz Slate is expected to win (link)
Oregon: No link, just my word, a Ted Cruz slate is the only Slate that can push through.
Michigan: The only loss for the Ted Cruz campaign to date (link) other than Ohio.
Texas: Guess!
Conclusion
Many States have yet to make their delegations. However in most cases the State Party is leaning Ted Cruz by significant numbers. Additionally the Tea Party, born in 2010, has been taking States by storm in the last few years in the “hidden war” for the Republican Party. I listed only 18 States. Of those 18 we saw one for Kasich, and one split for Trump and Kasich. Some of this is insider knowledge, I am in a few news groups and get details people won’t see and I cannot share. However I will say this, at this juncture I am projecting that Ted Cruz has essentially secured the hearts of 1300+ delegates. This is the battle we have won. We have enough States that we could potentially unseat Reince Priebus with room to spare. It is that significant what is going on inside the Republican Party.
This is not just about Ted Cruz, we are a movement of our own inside the Party.
Now we wont be exactly kicking the Establishment out over-night. Most of the sitting people will remain there, like Mitch McConnell. We don’t have enough top candidates to challenge at the Federal level, but we are in fact winning a larger share of the State level fights by looks of it. So this is where we make the offer… Instead of frequently negotiating with Democrats, negotiate with us. We are the future of the Party. Work with us and there will be less desire to remove you, less need to do so. You can probably stay until you have decided to leave if you reasonably work with us to make the changes the voters of the Republican Party so deeply want that they almost risked electing Trump as a spoiler.
I think they already know we are here however, the endorsements Trump has gotten are from mostly the dead-enders (Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Ben Carson for example) and lower level ignorant politicians. The main party can see the writing on the wall and probably are already working to make preparations to work with Ted Cruz.
The Fox News team, Lars Larson, and other right side media persons who supported Trump are doing so because either they were told to do so by their parent company and complied, because they got spammed by fake accounts making them think the support was overwhelmingly there for Trump, or because they are factually stationed in New York and have adapted those values we decry.
Language, how does it work?
You’re right....wrong I am.
Oh so we are still waiting for the double post ?
I know that MCDaniel is in Cruz corner and Cruz was one of the only Senators other than Lee who supported him in his challenge after the runoff. My problem with Cruz is that he was neutral in all the primary contests because of the deal he cut with MConnelll. Same deal Rand Paul made.
Cruz did not see at the time how McConnell outsmarted him, Ryan convinced Cruz to cowrite the article in the WSJ supporting TPA undermining conservatives, and the MCConnell lied to him about the Iranian deal.
why don’t we see any Trump supporters contradicting the argument in this article with facts about the procedures that are followed in various states to select delegates?
All I see is rehashed claims that Cruz’s team of campaign workers isn’t playing fair by knowing the rules and playing the game by using them.
This isn’t to say Trump can’t win—but it is becoming very clear that his expertise in building real estate doesn’t translate into building a political team that knows what it is doing.
I don’t get it. The establishment hates Cruz too.
You are not running for President as a Republican are you?
I think the wool has been pulled over our eyes. And I also feel that between the two front runners, they went to bed with the candidate that would get in bed with them and they felt would be more malleable to keeping the status quo.
They can’t control Trump.
Cruzs mothers Delaware birth certificate
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/01/08/ted-cruz-mother-birth-certificate/
Courtesy of Cruz for President
by JOEL B. POLLAK8 Jan 201628,113
Eleanor Darragh, mother of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97%
, was born in Delaware on Nov. 23, 1934, establishing her citizenship by birth–and, according to U.S. law, that of her son, even though he was
“Ted Cruz wins citizenship battle, eligible to be president – Penn. Supreme Court”
Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) can breathe a sigh a relief, knowing that the Pennsylvania Supreme Court has struck down a lawsuit over his eligibility to be president. However, the case may be appealed in the US Supreme Court.
In a unanimous decision, the State Supreme Court upheld a decision by a lower court that ruled Cruz could legally run for president of the United States. As a result, his name will remain on the ballot during the state’s primary on April 26.
A Pittsburgh resident named Carmon Elliott previously filed a lawsuit in Pennsylvania seeking to remove Cruz’s name from the ballot, claiming that the senator did not qualify to run because he was born in Canada. Because of the location of his birth, Elliott argued.
https://www.rt.com/usa/338047-ted-cruz-eligible-citizenship-president/
Cruz’s Canadian citizenship was governed by the 1947 Citizenship Act.
Here is the Act
http://historyofrights.ca/wp-content/uploads/statutes/CN_Citizenship.pdf
Section 10 governs naturalization. Under that section Cruz’s parents would have been required to reside in Canada for four years before they could apply for Canadian citizenship.
Section 10 of the 1947 Citizenship Act of Canada:
(b) Have been lawfully admitted to Canada for permanent residence therein;
(c) he has resided continuously in Canada for a period of one year immediately preceding the date of the application and, in addition, except where the applicant has served outside of Canada in the armed forces of Canada during time of war or where the applicant is the wife of and resides in Canada to a Canadian citizen, has also resided in Canada for a further period of not less than four years during the previous six years immediately preceding the date of application.
Cruz would be a natural born Canadian citizen under Part 1 Section 5 (a) of the Act:
5. A person, born after the commencement of this Act, is a natural-born Canadian citizen: -
(a) if he is born in Canada or on a Canadian ship:
There is nothing in the Act about first having to give up any other citizenship.
There is a section of the Act that discusses a child with dual citizenship being allowed to renounce their Canadian citizenship if they so choose.
Part III
Section 17. (1) Where a natural-born Canadian citizen, at his birth or during his minority, or any Canadian citizen on marriage, became or becomes under the law of any other country a national or citizen of that country, if, after attaining the full age of twenty-one years, or after the marriage, he makes, while not under disability, and still a national or citizen, a declaration renouncing his Canadian citizenship, he shall thereupon cease to be a Canadian citizen.
If Canada did not recognize dual citizenship there would be no reason for them to have Section 17.
Cruz was a natural-born Canadian citizen who “at his birth” “became” “under the law” of the United States, a “citizen of” the United States.
...”successful in business”....
Well not really in the respect of “how” he’s become wealthy. The IRS audits him every year because of his corrupt tactics they are all too familiar with.....same with banks who deal very hesitantly with him.
Trumps answer when his real estate business ventures failed was to change direction and simply sell the use of his brand name on buildings others actually own, not him...... Also gaining partners, (he often screwed), to invest with him because he couldn’t do it himself....He also swung into TV with his shows and working the entertainment circuit ....and while doing so sell clothing, wine etc....but always with the help of investors.
Not to mention he’s a master at money funneling to his own projects.....open a fund raiser etc. which will always go directly to rump, use it also to funnel until the complaints come that the money isn’t going where it’s suppose to then he coughs it up.
That is not true. They had Robert KKK Byrd and he was afforded all the benefits and honor of being a demonrat.
Thank you. Perhaps my first reasoned response to one of my pro-Cruz posts.
I do see where you are coming from and that you support Trump. And although I don’t agree with all your arguments you supported him well in your post.
As to your critique of Cruz it would take a bit of doing to give you a point by point response. In general, however, most fall into the TPP/TPA category: Cruz says something positive about it, but in the end decides to vote no. All the focus is on the talk. But the vote is what counted.
The New York Values is an example. Bad strategy probably but the Trump response is fake. They know what he meant and probably agree with him.
Or the wifey working for Goldman Sachs. Totally blown out of proportion.
And Cruz ‘stealing’ delegates from the unprepared and poorly organized Trump campaign. That’s just nonsense.
I could go on. So could you. I hope some other Trump supporters will follow your lead. We need a little more civility around here.
So again, your post was greatly appreciated.
And no, you never said you would walk if Trump loses the nomination. Many have. Not you. Sorry about that.
Cruz = Goldman Sachs.. sorry to burst your bubble ...
No, Trump is and he is a Registered Republican. Lord help us if he are responsible for our adult children and their positions on politics.
I would rather live in a state where I do not have to swear allegiance to a party but can vote for the most important position as I choose in a Republican or Democratic Party primary. Most of the South were Democrats locally and Republicans for national elections, most would vote in the state Democrat primaries. Now I stay independent because I hate the establishment of the GOP and I will not vote Democrat.
“and Cruz is not carrying popular vote.”
Were you also bummed out when algore lost the Presidency despite winning the popular vote?
Not in PA.
Cruz gets a block of 59 to 60 million voters with without Trump.
You have no idea how unpopular Cruz is in the old industrial states of PA, NJ, NY, OH and MI. To all the potential cross over votes that trump brings in he offers ...nothing. He is seen, righty or wrongly as a globalist. He is seen as not caring one bit for the middle or working class. He suggested moving the retirement age to 70. In the manual trades only 10 to 15 percent of guys can make it to that age. So they will have to take early retirement and less money. There is much more I could write, if you would care to read it, but the main point is Cruz has less appeal to the folks who are not already in the republican party. All the folks Trump brought in (~6 million) go away an some of trumps votes too.
Do not make the mistake of projecting your fond views of Cruz on the northeast, at least in the area I am in.
Trump and Cruz together have a possibility of getting 66 to 67 million.
Trump alone is also a no-go, the Cruz folks are very motivated and I see him losing 1.8 to 2.5 million votes if Cruz is not on the ticket.
HAHAHAHAHA! You are so funny. You know that this is not comparable. Cruz is not carrying the popular republican vote. He only wins when it is backdoor party elites voting to maintain the status quo.
Expand this to the national level. Cruz is not pulling in republican vote in people dense states that have the most electoral votes.
Trump’s campaign did not see voters had to Register in October of last year. His own children missed the deadline to switch from Democrat to Republican.
Trump did an unforced error when he sent a Delegate list to Washington DC instead of Washington State. His supporters had no list when the Counties were doing their votes.
“The Gang that couldn’t shoot straight”!
Sounds like a plan.
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