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Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FiveThirtyEight ^ | February 21, 2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 02/21/2016 6:17:03 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

If you think the arguments between the Republican candidates have been bad, well, you ain't seen nothing yet. Pundits, reporters and political analysts are going to really have at it. Two competing theories about the Republican race are about to come to a head, and both of them can claim a victory of sorts after South Carolina.

The first theory is simple. It can be summarized in one word: Trump! The more detailed version would argue the following:

* Trump has easily won two of the first three states.
* Trump is ahead in the polls in pretty much every remaining state.
* Trump is ahead in delegates -- in fact, he may win all 50 delegates from South Carolina.
* Trump has been extremely resilient despite pundits constantly predicting his demise.1 He's been at 35 percent in national polls for months now. That's as steady as it gets!

So, um, isn't it obvious that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee?

Not so, say the Trump skeptics. Their case is pretty simple also:

* Trump is winning states, but he's only getting about one-third of the vote.
* Trump has a relatively low ceiling on his support.
* Trump now has a chief rival: Florida senator Marco Rubio...

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Florida; Iowa; Nevada; New Hampshire; New York; Ohio; South Carolina; Texas; Campaign News; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 2016election; bencarson; concerntroll; election2016; florida; iowa; jebbush; johnkasich; marcorubio; natesilver; nevada; newhampshire; newyork; ohio; southcarolina; tedcruz; texas; trump
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just the way the Democrats want it to ensure Hillary has any chance at all.


21 posted on 02/21/2016 6:37:41 PM PST by jsanders2001
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’m a Trump skeptic, but I would still vote for him if he becomes the nominee. Keeping Hilary out is a priority with me.


22 posted on 02/21/2016 6:38:04 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

There is no way in hell that the cabana boy is even remotely a threat to Trump. He is not competitive anywhere.

With Jeb out of the race, there will be one less voice attacking Trump in the debates, etc. And Rubio will only get about a quarter of the Jeb supporters based on the second choice breakdown.

The republican primary is pretty much over.

But the pundits need something to talk about for the next few months. A lot of BS will be manufactured and disseminated.


23 posted on 02/21/2016 6:38:05 PM PST by Helicondelta
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To: tinyowl

Blood from a fat pig? Is that a reference to someone on Faux Nooz, or a source of greasing bullets to be used on Islamist terrorists.


24 posted on 02/21/2016 6:40:21 PM PST by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: ground_fog
Rush ‘s big crush on Rubio is a huge problem.
Rush is willing to lie fir the DC establishment cause

Rush literally peddling a phony secret Jeb poll for days in air and then another Murdoch - Comcast joint venture phony hit poll without questioning it
makes him party of the enemy camp folks. the lines are being drawn

26 posted on 02/21/2016 6:41:19 PM PST by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: DannyTN

Keep taunting. Keep ridiculing. And after your pyrrhic nomination performance, you’ll be whining for help from the other 65% in general. Many of them will not so easily forget.


27 posted on 02/21/2016 6:41:27 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: 5thGenTexan; 2ndDivisionVet

Huh?

2D is a personal friend and I’m sure he understood my post.

I ain’t taunting anybody.

The pic is a recognition we are about to go to war over a Chimera and a Canadian...

After 8 years of Kenyan values, I’ll vote for Canadian values, which are more closely aligned to those of America...


28 posted on 02/21/2016 6:42:29 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway - "Enjoy Yourself" ala Louis Prima)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The Hindenberg is about to burst into flam3s.


29 posted on 02/21/2016 6:42:29 PM PST by MrEdd (Heck? Geewhiz Cripes, thats the place where people who don't believe in Gosh think they aint going.)
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To: 5thGenTexan

A deferment is NOT dodging the draft.


30 posted on 02/21/2016 6:42:44 PM PST by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; ONE BOX LEFT!)
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Comment #31 Removed by Moderator

To: 5thGenTexan

you didn’t like http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-gop/3400086/posts?page=16#16
???


32 posted on 02/21/2016 6:43:39 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway - "Enjoy Yourself" ala Louis Prima)
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To: QuinqueViae

Excellent retort, nOOb.

Welcome to FR...


33 posted on 02/21/2016 6:44:47 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway - "Enjoy Yourself" ala Louis Prima)
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To: ripnbang

True.

I was just pointing out the error that the article mentions that Trump underperformed his polling, which is not true, Trumps numbers were nearly identical to the real clear politics average of all polls for him in SC


34 posted on 02/21/2016 6:46:31 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (You can't spell Hillary without using the letters L, I, A, R)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Trump is only getting a third of the vote. With six candidates that makes him a loser?


35 posted on 02/21/2016 6:47:15 PM PST by VerySadAmerican
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To: Vendome

I have watched 2D fight the fight here. I do not have the time to do the posting work he has, and he has been trashed for it. But I will not sit idly by and have him take all the shots.

If you do stand with him, then I apologize.


36 posted on 02/21/2016 6:47:49 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: 5thGenTexan

Like I said. We are friends, literally and I stood with him when he was really down.

Ask him...

Always a good man.


37 posted on 02/21/2016 6:48:55 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously-you won't live through it anyway - "Enjoy Yourself" ala Louis Prima)
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To: ex91B10

A physical deferment by one who now claims at 70 to be the most fit Presidentail candidate ever is suspect.

Bill Clinton had a college attendance deferment, too.


38 posted on 02/21/2016 6:49:59 PM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: Helicondelta
But the pundits need something to talk about for the next few months.

The real reason for most of the controversy amongst the public and here on FR.

39 posted on 02/21/2016 6:52:54 PM PST by UCANSEE2 (Lost my tagline on Flight MH370. Sorry for the inconvenience.)
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To: 5thGenTexan

He also had a dtudent deferment like a couple hundred thousand other americans


40 posted on 02/21/2016 7:00:30 PM PST by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; ONE BOX LEFT!)
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