New ABC Poll shows A.S. way ahead

Dave Dryer on Hewitt radio Pror.

[Stars N Stripes]

David Dryer is talking about a poll that was done by ABC over the weekend that shows:

AS - 45%

Busta - 29

Mclnt - 11%

on the Hugh Hewitt show now.

[Tempest]

Cool.

I bet the McClintock supporters are calling up Bustamante's campaign office now and asking him what they should do next ;^)

[Smogger]

I don't see how Bustamante is that much worse than Ahnold. I really don't. Both will raise our taxes, but at least Busty is open and honest about his intentions.

Gee you make Bustamante sound swell. Well sorry but I see a whole boatload of differences between Bustamante and Arnie.

1. Busty said he will raise taxes. Arnold said he wouldn't (though he hasn't taken a pledge)
2. Arnie supports prop 187. Busty wants to make California part of Mexico.
3. Arnie says that immigrants should come here legally. Busty wants to give drivers licenses to illegals.
4. Arnie is registered a Republican and campaiged for Presidnent Bush. Busty says California's problems are Bush's fault.
5. Busty has the support of the Democratic party. Arnold has the Democratic party quaking in their boots.

Sorry I see a few differences. I'll stick with Arnold (or another Republican frontrunner.) Thanks. Your welcome to throw your vote away on Coleman if makes you feel somehow more principled.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

This poll makes more sense than the nonsense LA Times poll taet the media was fawning over last week -- it more clearly demonstrates an expected loss of conservative votes from Arnold to McClintock and the epected loss of moderate dims from Busto to Arnold . The LA times must have been polling their own reporters. LOL!

The next 2-3 weeks will be telling after the individual campaigns get on. My guess: if McClintock doesn't break 25% he drops out and endorses Arnold. Same for Uberroth. All the rest fade to <5% combined. If No-on-recall doesn't break 40% Dufus resigns or has an unfortunate accident (calls off the union-built stage, etc.) and Busto runs as an incumbent Goober. Even so, Arnold will likely win.

Trouble with the polling is weighting the "truly likely" voters. The most motivated are the conservatives. Even the "good" polls could be understaing conservative turnout by 10-20% -- and overestimating the non-conservative turnout by an equivalent margin.

[Stars N Stripes]

Brushed it off, "it's too early to pay attention to polls..." The usual.

[Paul8148]

It is done for ABC by Suvery USA. 63-35% for the recall.

45A-29B-11Mc for governors race. It was on the 5 o'clock news on the L.A station. At 6 they talk about the method use and why it is different from other polls.

[wardaddy]

If that's the most salacious thing Arnold ever did that can be publicly displayed then he is a far better (luckier) man than I.

[NormsRevenge]

I hear ya, we're not even halfway thru a campaign, have had no major events by any of the candidates of note , no debates, etc.. the media coverage has been far from probing of the candidates and their stances to date , especially Busty and Tom.

Hiram's War XXXI is only getting warmed up, tho! ;-)

Let 'em run!!

[lainie]

woo! do tell! :-)

[Paul8148]

The sample was of 590 of "Centain" registered voters.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

I disagree entirely. What you call for must come after defeating Democrats. If you do not, or can not, beat Democrats and take their power from him, you will never implement any form of conservatism.

This is what Bill Clinton (and Newt as well) knew and understood...and what we can take lesson from. Unless you first win, and defeat your opponent, everything else is lost forever.

[Stars N Stripes]

Well put... next couple of weeks we should start seeing some consistency in the polling data.

[Wolfstar]

If the recall passes, then one benefit an Arnold victory brings would be the defeat of Cruz Bustamante. Should Bustamante win, that will be the beginning of the legitimization and mainstreaming of the Atzlan or reconquista movement. There shouldn't be a Conservative worthy of the name anywhere in the nation who would want to see this recall effort result in a Governor Cruz Bustamante.

Of course, should McClintock win, that would be the best of all possible outcomes. But unless some kind of political lightening strikes, Tom McClintock will not be the next governor of California. In fact, if he comes out of this being seen as the spoiler who handed the governorship to Bustamante, his political career is likely to end with this election.

[The Old Hoosier]

Schwarzenegger will just draw the state party further to the left. He has given no conservative ideas on any issue. When he raises taxes, which he won't rule out, Republicans will go another generation without winning. That's what I care about.

Of course, the joke will be on Californians.

[jam137]

Thanks for the info. I'll leave channel 7 on for the next while.

[Amerigomag]

Myself, I am doing minimal posting until some candidates actually present position on issues, etc.

Since Tom and Cruz have already presented their positions I guess you meant to say you're waiting till Arnie presents something substantive.

Norm, I hope you're not holding your breath.

[Wolfstar]

Ambrose, with all due respect, if you don't see how Bustamante is vastly worse than even Davis, let alone Schwarzenegger, then I genuinely feel sorry for you.

[The Old Hoosier]

But if you don't get someone who is at least a little bit conservative, you lose. You always lose.

And besides, Busty isn't going to win anyway. Again, I say he comes in third.

[The Old Hoosier]

The only difference I've seen between the two is that Busty is honest about the fact that he wants to raise taxes. Arnold won't say he wants to raise taxes until after he's elected. But he will have to, because he promised not to cut education spending, which makes up 46% of the budget. You can't balance the budget while selling out to the teachers' unions, as he did by making that promise.

[Stars N Stripes]

I can't stand the local news shows!! Thanks for the heads up guys.

Viva La TIVO!!

[tubebender]

Are you saying these groups are paying the bill and not one dime of my California or Federal taxes are going for this. If it's such a good deal why did you oppose it...