Times Poll shows Bustamante With Lead

LA Times ^ | August 24, 2003 | Mark Z. Barabak

[DodgeRam]

Times Poll Shows Bustamante Leads Schwarzenegger in Recall Race By Mark Z. Barabak Times Staff Writer

6:58 PM PDT, August 23, 2003

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.

As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.

Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.

Simon abruptly quit the race today, after the poll was completed. He said that "there are too many Republicans" running and expressed concern that his candidacy would undercut GOP efforts to oust Davis and replace the Democrat with one of their own.

[FairOpinion]

They'll just keep taxing business and people, until nothing is left, they don't care. Just like the communists, it didn't bother them one bit, to destroy their country with communism.

[jwalburg]

No they won't. Not if they have to govern California.

zing!

[ambrose]

Doesn't Davis become "more powerful than you can possibly imagine" if he survives? I don't see how you can vote "no" on the recall.

[ambrose]

By the by, I give the most weight to the recent Field Poll, which has had the best statewide track record of any polling firm.

The LA Times poll is out of sync with virtually every other poll taken during this same time frame.

[Torie]

No, I don't think so. Nobody is really powerful in California. It is more of a deer in headlights situation. I am not sure the good folks of Ohio say, would do much better handling the facts on the ground if presented to them, than California is doing, in other words, poorly. It is all too much to handle. The fact of the matter is that the budget will have to be balanced next year, and to do it all with taxes, will cause a mass repopulation to various Mountain time zone states, and Nevada. So cuts will have to be effected. There is no choice.

Another option, is to cede California to Mexico, and end the welfare state in its tracks. Just a thought.

[DoctorZIn]

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[Mr. Mojo]

Another option, is to cede California to Mexico, and end the welfare state in its tracks. Just a thought.

And not a very good one at that (for too many reasons to enumerate). How about just ending the welfare state, period.

[Torie]

All the polls have a high level of SD error, because it is an odd election, and thus the playbook they rely on is compromised. In addition, it is California, which is an anomic, personality driven, and really unpredictable state, particulary in state (as opposed to federal) elections, despite the conventional wisdom. NOBODY can reasonably predict what will happen at this point. Nobody.

[ambrose]

Dividing CA into two states might do the trick. Have a People's Democratic Republic of Kalifornia, covering the Bay Area and Los Angeles County, with a Free California covering the rest of the state.

[Scott from the Left Coast]

If Arnold drops out, McClintock picks up no more than half his votes. That puts McClintock behind Bustamante 35-22 (assuming Bustamante doesn't get a single one of the current Arnold votes -- a wacky assumption -- and assuming that this isn't an outlier poll -- which seems pretty obvious given how far afield it is from every other poll)...and what, precisely, has been gained???

[skr]

attempr=attempt

And make that "probably" "more than likely"

[Scott from the Left Coast]

She'll beat half the field.

Literally.

[Torie]

A state of two parts not geographically connected. Sort of like Pakistan was once, which once included now Pakistan and Bangledesh. Of course, LA County would be part of a state stripped of its suburban counties. Plus the Bay Area and LA County really don't like each other much, sort of like Pakistan and Bangledesh. LOL.

[FairOpinion]

It's because even a more powerful Davis and shamed Republicans are vastly preferable than Bustamante.

[ambrose]

NOBODY can reasonably predict what will happen at this point. Nobody.

I'll agree with that. I think the best chance for McClintock is if the "yes" on the recall vote starts pulling away by a wide margin the polls. This might severely depress the Democrat turnout, leaving the opening that McClintock needs to win.

I still see Peter Ueberoth as a potential dark horse should Arnie implode.

[ambrose]

A state of two parts not geographically connected.

I think that is the case for a small strip of Virginia soil. Perhaps we could leave open a small neutral zone corridor along the 101 so LA County could be connected to the northern half.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Heh heh. Sure. Bring on October 7th and let's find out.

[GatekeeperBookman]

McCLintock has said he is ready to recieve Arnold's support.

[CyberAnt]

Well .. if you poll only the Hispanic sections of L.A., I would suspect that's the kind of numbers you would get. Good grief!