Times Poll shows Bustamante With Lead

LA Times ^ | August 24, 2003 | Mark Z. Barabak

[DodgeRam]

Times Poll Shows Bustamante Leads Schwarzenegger in Recall Race By Mark Z. Barabak Times Staff Writer

6:58 PM PDT, August 23, 2003

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.

As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.

Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.

Simon abruptly quit the race today, after the poll was completed. He said that "there are too many Republicans" running and expressed concern that his candidacy would undercut GOP efforts to oust Davis and replace the Democrat with one of their own.

[Drango]

Simon abruptly quit the race today

Class! I wonder if others will take the hint...

[Pokey78]

I heard this mentioned on Crossfire tonight.

[LibertyAndJusticeForAll]

"Arianna Huffington, who is running a nonpartisan campaign, received just 3% support from likely voters, and the Green Party's Peter Camejo drew 1%, tying him with Hustler magazine publisher Larry Flynt."

These numbers are even more amazing to me. Who would vote for Ariana or Flynt?

[DodgeRam]

That's not all If I remember right Arnold has 35% compared to 21% of the Republican vote, but they both have an equal number of latino vote 13 to 12. Does'nt make sense. I think this poll was heavily weighted toward democrat votes to get such a lopsied result. Arnold had a great week and yet the had him behind by 13%.

[Roscoe]

Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%

One falling, one rising.

[BerniesFriend]

LA TIMES POLL..NO AGENDA WHATSOEVER..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you for your attention..

[Princeliberty]

Like Arnold should take the hint.

McClintock is closing the gap and with Simon
out they probably will be in the margin of error.
And Arnold negatives way higher than McClintocks.

Arnold only going down and McClintock's only going up.
Only McClintock can win!
Drop out now Arnold!

[umgud]

I think we all need to get behind Bustamante, and get this state over with.

[FairOpinion]

"Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.

Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%."

In other words: 1. The Republican leader is unquestionably Arnold, with other Republicans far behind -- McClintock got half of the votes Arnold got, the rest got less. 2. If all Republicans would unite behind the Republican frontrunner: Arnold, he could beat Bustamante, getting 47% of the votes to Bustamante's 35%. 3. But if Republicans stay fractured, there is no way Arnold can beat Bustamante, and better get used to saying: Governor Bustamante.

[Hildy]

I think Arnold must keep reminding voteres that Bustamante will keep the car registration hike for all cars over $20,000, which I have to say is one of the stupidest things I've heard in a long time.

[DodgeRam]

Read the poll. In Times poll Tom has only moved a few percentage points, while Arnold stays the same. Ueberroth is the one repub that made big gains. No other poll has him that high. Bust.. had 35, while only in the low 20's in other polls.

[deport]

Do you have another LA Times poll to compare with? If not this is the initial poll and how is one going up/down? If you are comparing it to other polls then that's apples and oranges.....

When either the CA Field Poll or the PPIC poll issue another poll then you'll have something to compare against.....

[B Knotts]

This is a poll of registered voters, so it will lean liberal by about 15-20%.

[LibertyAndJusticeForAll]

"... interviewed 1,351 registered voters between Aug. 16 and Aug. 21. Among them were 801 voters deemed likely to cast ballots on the recall."

The poll was mostly taken before Wed., the 20th, the day of Arnold's great press conference. A large chunk don't appear likely to vote.

[Quix]

I suspect it depends on how irrational, arrogant and suicidal the rest of the pack are.

Conservatives can too often be too given to shooting themselves in their feet, hands and heads in the name of doctrinal purity.

[JoeFromCA]

A candidate as conservative as McClintock simply can't win in California. The votes aren't there. I know them's fighting words, and I expect to be flamed big time by McClintock supporters.

The only way Republicans can make headway in California is by small steps, which means electing a fiscal conservative and passing, at least for now, on conservative social issues.

My assessment is that many California Republicans would rather stand on principal and see McClintock loose with 10 to 15 percent of the vote than see Schwarzenegger, whom they view as a RINO, win.

Flame away.

[Princeliberty]

This is the most recent poll.

Polling only now getting past the Arnold mania.

[deport]

This is a poll of registered voters, so it will lean liberal by about 15-20%.

---

It says Likely voters..... but it could well be a push poll based upon the the methodolgy and how the questions were phrased.... It's also the poll that had the Recall about break even... trying to allude that Davis had gained.