Times Poll shows Bustamante With Lead

LA Times ^ | August 24, 2003 | Mark Z. Barabak

[DodgeRam]

Times Poll Shows Bustamante Leads Schwarzenegger in Recall Race By Mark Z. Barabak Times Staff Writer

6:58 PM PDT, August 23, 2003

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante holds a wide lead over Arnold Schwarzenegger in the race to succeed Gov. Gray Davis, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll, which finds the Republican vote splintered among several GOP contenders.

As the sole major Democrat running to replace Davis — should the incumbent be ousted Oct. 7 — Bustamante enjoys the support of 35% of likely voters, the poll found.

Schwarzenegger received 22% support, followed by three fellow Republicans: state Sen. Tom McClintock of Thousand Oaks with 12%, businessman Peter V. Ueberroth with 7% and Bill Simon Jr. — the GOP's 2002 gubernatorial nominee — with 6%.

Simon abruptly quit the race today, after the poll was completed. He said that "there are too many Republicans" running and expressed concern that his candidacy would undercut GOP efforts to oust Davis and replace the Democrat with one of their own.

[sangoo]

I think we all need to get behind Bustamante, and get this state over with.

He's got my vote. We need to start over here, and the only way is when the libs see the results of socialism in its full glory.

[Torie]

The dirty little secret is that no Pubbie candidate is going to cut much into the Dem base. About half of the 12% not affilitated are in play. Perhaps Arnold has the best chance for getting the bulk of those, except that I suspect Ueberroth is doing well there also. It is not clear to me at this point that Arnold has much of a crossover appeal, and thus it is not clear to me that if he drops out in favor of McClintock, that McClintock will do much worse against Bustamante than the other way around. But it is still early yet. Things are bound to change. So I am not demanding either drop out at this point, as if anyone cares, which they don't, as to what I think.

[ambrose]

Don't forget the last minute smear attacks that Bob Mulholland is ready to unleash on Arnie.

[Torie]

I will vote for Grey before Bustamante. I hope that helps, and I have been very clear and consistent on that point. But my first choice is McClintock, and probably my second choice is Arnold, but the latter is only a probability at this point, not a certainty.

[Coeur de Lion]

You're absolutely right. If Simon hadn't won the primary we wouldn't even be having this recall(Riordan would've become governor). Bustamante would actually be worse than Davis, even though that seems to be impossible. If it's a question of electing a RINO who has a chance of beating Bustamante that's who I'm voting for. If it looks like Bustamante might win, frankly I'll vote against recall if that will prevent Bustamante from becoming governor.

[Revolting cat!]

A campaign slogan for Mary Carey:

Is that a gun in your pocket or is it your rising support?

[deport]

It is the Arnold people are who saying we should
vote for a candidate based on polling therefore
they should be the ones concerned.

---

Are you from CA? Just curious as you don't fly your state flag.......

I think you'll see very wild fluctuations in polls at least for the next three weeks..... After then things may begin to level out.... Arnold is just beginning to get his campaign kicked off.... Some of the others have been at it for years out there.... Just a lunch by Arnold will draw huge media/people attention and attendance.... That is something the others can't buy even with millions of dollars...

If at the end of the next three weeks and a clear leader is emerging then the loser should begin to consider stepping down and supporting the other candidate..... be it McClintock or Schwarzenegger.... jmo from a far.

[FairOpinion]

"Bustamante is going to get close to 40% of the vote at the end. "

---

That's my prediction as well. Considering that there are 45% Dems and 15% misc groups more aligned with Dems, the 40% is more a minimum for Bustamante, he could even get more.

The only way a Republican, any Republican can beat him, considering that there are only 35-40% registered Republicans, if all Republicans unite behind one Republican, and also get a few Dem & indep. votes away from Bustamante.

[Walkin Man]

Yeah, do the right thing Arnie. Quit now and throw all your support behind the only real Repub in the election, Tom McClintock!

[jwalburg]

Probably time to resurrect old Davis/Bustamante bumper stickers.

[Torie]

Thank heavens for Camero and Arianna. Otherwise, it would look very good for Davis.

[ambrose]

But the contest remains unsettled, and polling is a particular challenge in this environment, given the special nature of the election and the way the campaign has been collapsed into a relatively brief, two-month time frame. The poll suggested a great deal of fluidity: While views on the recall itself were quite fixed, 46% of likely voters said they could change their minds about whom to support between now and Oct. 7.

In other words, we neither believe in nor stand behind our own poll results.

[ambrose]

Will anyone be running attack ads on Bustamante?

[FairOpinion]

Maybe this was Davis's strategy all along: let Bustamante be the front runner, then people will rather vote against the recall, than let B. win, so Davis stays -- which is better than Bustamante, but it will be a major defeat for the Republicans, after they put everything behind this recall.

The Dems will be ROTFL about this for the next ten years.

[Torie]

Is the Pope Catholic?

[Kevin Curry]

Class! I wonder if others will take the hint.

No, I'm afraid Aaaahnold doesn't have that kind of class.

[Torie]

This is clearly Davis' strategy as of two days ago, when the light bulb went on for Davis. It went on for me about three weeks ago. Davis will be French kissing Bustamante from here on out.

[Kevin Curry]

The Dems will be ROTFL about this for the next ten years.

No they won't. Not if they have to govern California.

[skr]

Other than getting a governor who might attempr a probably over-ridable veto, what will it change if the representatives and senators are left in place?

[Mr. Mojo]

Will anyone be running attack ads on Bustamante?

Of course. The real question is will anyone have the guts to expose his Mechista connection