Posted on 01/05/2026 1:11:08 PM PST by nickcarraway
Given all that’s at stake, how would Japan respond in a scenario that could lead to the world’s first great power war since 1945?
Imagine this scenario: it’s finally happening. China is moving to take Taiwan by force. Chinese warships are blockading the island of Taiwan and the surrounding area, while missiles and UAVs rain down destruction on the Taiwanese people from above.
In this hypothetical scenario, what is Japan doing?
This is a question of some urgency for Tokyo these days. For one thing, Japan’s westernmost island is only about 110 kilometers away from Taiwan – much closer than it is to the Japanese mainland. Then, of course, there’s the question of a more direct attack on the homeland: Japan hosts around 55,000 U.S. soldiers on 15 major bases. China could easily decide to target these sites.
Given all that’s at stake, how would Japan respond in a scenario that could lead to the world’s first great power war since 1945? And In a clash between two superpowers, would Japan’s contribution matter?
In this episode of Diplomat Asia, we explain Japan’s military and security strategy for a Taiwan contingency – and why the United States’ choices will be key to any action by Japan.
Dunno, maybe China can FAFO and show us?
It was handed over to the Republic of China in 1945 where it has remained.
If the Chi-Coms try to make it otherwise they will find it was a very big mistake.
Japan has taken to being civilization very nicely. But pushing them too hard would be a grave error.
it would take the US days to sink the PLAN, Japan would take a bit longer.
How long to wipe out China's Dams?
Take over our duties in Korea while we go toe-to-toe with the ChiComs?
I don’t see them doing much beyond their territorial limits.
Akira blows up China
If they believe the US is in the fight, they would fight like WWII.
As for the question “would their contribution matter?”
Absolutely. They would be the deciding factor.
They still have a warrior culture, expertise and American weapons. They would punch well above their weight.
China is too busy taking over eastern Russia.
China still claims the Ryukyu Islands chain (including Okinawa) belongs to them, and that the San Francisco Treaty improperly returned them to Japan. Just recently, they began making some noise about it, after Japan elected a conservative /hawkish Prime Minister. If China takes Taiwan, the Ryukyus will eventually follow, starting with the Yaeyama Islands.
Japan is moving itself to being a military power and being prepared for war with China, I don’t know what they would do, but they are preparing themselves to have the war option available.
Sure Taiwan was theirs over 130 years ago but that is not much of a claim.
My gut feel is that Japan would fight with us.
There’s a reason Japan recently participated in the Naval exercises of the US in the Western Pacific, followed by a number of US port visits. It wasn’t just to hang out together.
For more than 60 years, Japan and the US have had a mutual defense treaty. The history and its provisions have been brought to us by Grok today:
“The U.S.-Japan military alliance, established by the
1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, is a cornerstone of Indo-Pacific security, providing U.S. troop presence in Japan for mutual defense against threats from China, North Korea, and Russia, while Japan contributes resources and boosts its own defense capabilities, including co-developing defense tech and expanding roles in regional security, solidifying a strong, evolving partnership focused on deterrence, stability, and shared strategic goals.
Key Aspects
Mutual Defense: The core treaty guarantees U.S. security for Japan, obligating the U.S. to defend Japan if attacked, and vice versa.
U.S. Troop Presence: Around 55,000 U.S. personnel are stationed in Japan, supported by extensive U.S. military assets.
Japanese Contributions: Japan provides land and facilities for U.S. forces, and its Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) increasingly take on broader roles, including overseas security assistance and defense equipment co-development.
Addressing Regional Threats: The alliance directly counters challenges posed by China’s growing power, North Korea’s nuclear programs, and Russia’s aggression.
Evolution & Integration: The alliance has deepened significantly, moving beyond basic security to joint exercises, missile defense, and broader strategic cooperation, with recent revamps focusing on greater integration and shared production of defense equipment.
Trilateral Cooperation: The alliance also strengthens trilateral efforts with South Korea and partners with Australia, the Philippines, and others (like the Quad).
Recent Developments
Enhanced Defense Cooperation: Discussions include joint development of next-generation fighter jets (with the UK/Italy) and restructuring U.S. command in Japan.
Focus on China: A key objective is coordinating strategies to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific.
Strengthening Capabilities: Japan is enhancing its defense spending and capabilities, with the alliance adapting to new security challenges.
In essence, the alliance has transformed from a post-war arrangement into a dynamic, integrated partnership, crucial for maintaining stability in a changing geopolitical landscape.”
Bflv
if we still fabricated our own chips in America. But like so many other industries, it was sent overseas by our bi-partisan corruptocrats. But chips - like rare earth minerals - are far more important than steel or textiles, and we must re-build our capacity ASAP.
The calculus of the CCP planning and carrying out an invasion of Taiwan has been greatly reordered by the events in Venezuela.
For one thing, the CCP footprint in Caracas has been much smaller in the succeeding hours after the raid. Now almost certainly denied any supply of oil from Venezuela, the desperation of the Chinese for energy supplies from anywhere else is sharply increased. The example of the US having a concentrated military and naval presence surrounding Venezuela, and the willingness to use that might, brings the Chinese presence in the Taiwan Strait into question - do they have the same determination that Trump has shown?
One of Trump’s greatest strengths is his sheer unpredictability. He continually keeps the rest of the world off balance, and fills many of their leaders with an underlying dread they may be the next targets.
When Trump says “Jump!” there is a chorus all over the world responding with “How high?”
Boogety-boogety-boo.
But why?
Who do you think USA is gonna support more?
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