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US intel wrongly envisioned catastrophic outcome if IDF escalated against Hezbollah
Times of Israel ^ | December 18, 2024 | Jacob Magid

Posted on 12/19/2024 1:43:10 PM PST by KingofZion

US intelligence assessments before Israel escalated its conflict against the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group in September said that such a move risked sparking an all-out war in which hundreds — if not thousands — of Israelis would be killed, three US officials and one Israeli official told The Times of Israel...

...the US officials said, acknowledging that both countries’ assessments proved wildly inaccurate within days, as the IDF methodically took out much of Hezbollah’s missile and drone capabilities, dismantled its military infrastructure in southern Lebanon, picked off almost every member of its senior leadership and killed or wounded thousands of operatives — many of them in audacious mass detonations of the terror group’s communication devices.

Hezbollah did manage to expand the range of its rocket and drone launches, disrupting life for tens of thousands of citizens in parts of Israel that had been free of such threats over the past year. Fifty-seven Israeli soldiers and 21 civilians were killed during the roughly two-month escalation that ensued...

As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah began to ratchet up over the summer, US intelligence assessments had warned of a very different scenario in the offing.

“The assessments… were that this was potentially going to be a catastrophic war that would cause potentially hundreds or thousands of Israeli casualties as Hezbollah missiles overwhelmed Israeli defenses,” said one of the US officials....

But Israel was unmoved by the words of caution from Washington, and the IDF conducted airstrikes two days later that eliminated the leadership of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force. Then, on September 27, Israel killed Hezbollah’s longtime secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah.

Reflecting on how events developed over the past several months, a third US official noted that it was possible to defend the summertime intelligence assessments by chalking up Israel’s battlefield achievements to luck.

(Excerpt) Read more at timesofisrael.com ...


TOPICS: Gaza; Hamas; Hezbollah; Iran; Israel; Lebanon; News/Current Events; War on Terror; Yemen
KEYWORDS: ayatollahkhamenei; benjaminnetanyahu; biden; corrupticrats; deihires; demagogicparty; fjb; gaza; hamas; hassannasrallah; hezbollah; idf; iran; irgc; israel; jacobmagid; lebanon; masoudpezeshkian; meddling; obamanation; qudsforce; randpaulsucks; sabotage; treason; unifil; war; waronterror; wokeintel; yemen
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"Luck" my a**

Biden team wrong again - shocker.

1 posted on 12/19/2024 1:43:10 PM PST by KingofZion
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To: KingofZion

Utter and complete B.S.!

U.S. Intel was not an objective observer making an objective assesment, they were part of a policy objective trying to force an outcome they wanted, keeping Israel in control and Hezbollah alive.


2 posted on 12/19/2024 1:46:55 PM PST by SoConPubbie (Trump has all the right enemies, DeSantis has all the wrong friends.)
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To: KingofZion

The US probably calculated that Israel would do wonderfully and that Hezbollah would be destroyed.
Can’t have that. The Deep State hates the Jews.
So we told Israel that this would be a disaster for them.
But they aren’t stupid and they ignored us.
And it worked out wonderfully.


3 posted on 12/19/2024 1:48:39 PM PST by ClearCase_guy
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To: KingofZion
audacious mass detonations of the terror group’s communication devices.

Audacious seems a good fit, better than “shock and awe” and extremely effective.
4 posted on 12/19/2024 1:50:15 PM PST by af_vet_1981 ( The bus came by and I got on, That's when it all began)
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To: KingofZion

IDF Don’t mess around.


5 posted on 12/19/2024 1:50:54 PM PST by Big Red Badger (ALL Things Will be Revealed !)
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To: KingofZion

“US intelligence assessments....proved wildly inaccurate”

Precise reason the current intelligence clown show needs to be flushed like the stinking turd it is.


6 posted on 12/19/2024 1:53:14 PM PST by LeonardFMason
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To: KingofZion

...US Intel WRONG AGAIN


7 posted on 12/19/2024 1:54:17 PM PST by JJBookman (Democrats = Party of often wrong )
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To: LeonardFMason

US Intel didn’t know about the exploding pagers. Mossad did.


8 posted on 12/19/2024 2:06:06 PM PST by HonorInPa
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To: KingofZion

When did “intelligence” come to mean and opinion and speculation, rather than just information?


9 posted on 12/19/2024 2:08:43 PM PST by rightwingcrazy (;-,)
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To: rightwingcrazy
When did “intelligence” come to mean and opinion and speculation, rather than just information?

more like biased wishful thinking...

10 posted on 12/19/2024 2:10:20 PM PST by Magnum44 (...against all enemies, foreign and domestic... )
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To: KingofZion

Luck?

Try some combination of Divine assistance, Israeli excellence, and Arab incompetence.


11 posted on 12/19/2024 2:12:04 PM PST by TheThirdRuffian (Orange is the new brown)
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To: KingofZion

It was a catastrophic outcome for Hezbollah, Iran and their supporters in the US government.


12 posted on 12/19/2024 2:12:49 PM PST by KarlInOhio (Now unburdened by the Biden/Harris administration that has been.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

“ The US probably calculated that Israel would do wonderfully and that Hezbollah would be destroyed. Can’t have that. The Deep State hates the Jews.”

Indeed. I laugh at the idiots who say the Deep State is controlled by Israel.

It’s the opposite. The Deep State — including the Deep State infesting Israel and basically every country— hates Israel and America just the same. Hates free people, in general, in fact.


13 posted on 12/19/2024 2:14:46 PM PST by TheThirdRuffian (Orange is the new brown)
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To: KingofZion

Wrongly envisioned by “three US officials...”

1) Joe Biden
2) Joseph R. Biden
3) Joseph Robinette Biden


14 posted on 12/19/2024 2:17:11 PM PST by shotgun
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To: HonorInPa

That will perhaps go down as the biggest, most precise, and most powerful decapitation strike in the history of mankind.

We’re living it, so we don’t understand its significance, but it’s astounding.

3-5k head guys taken out in one call.

Simply amazing.


15 posted on 12/19/2024 2:17:16 PM PST by TheThirdRuffian (Orange is the new brown)
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To: TheThirdRuffian

Even now the American Deep State is shoveling money at their Israeli hired seditionists, most notably $900 million to far-Left criminal Ehud Barak. No way US Deep State wants Israel governed by election winners.


16 posted on 12/19/2024 2:26:26 PM PST by jjotto ( Blessed are You LORD, who crushes enemies and subdues the wicked.)
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To: KingofZion
...a third US official noted that it was possible to defend the summertime intelligence assessments by chalking up Israel’s battlefield achievements to luck.
Firing the third US official is possible to defend by chalking it up to wanting to rid the gov't of skinheads and other racists.

17 posted on 12/19/2024 2:27:40 PM PST by SunkenCiv (What's his FR nick?)
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To: KingofZion

Well it was for Hezbollah.


18 posted on 12/19/2024 2:29:58 PM PST by pas
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To: Big Red Badger

To see why just read Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

He said always give your enemies room to escape.

Iran had Israel’s back to the sea and threatened to genocide them.

When you have no out you’ll fight like hell.

And Israel did.


19 posted on 12/19/2024 2:31:00 PM PST by packagingguy
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To: KingofZion
US intel wrong...

As usual.

20 posted on 12/19/2024 2:31:06 PM PST by Navy Patriot (I Voted For President Trump, Celebrate Recivilization!)
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