Posted on 09/23/2024 6:48:28 AM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.
After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by former President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another Election Night surprise.
...
One Democratic senator who requested anonymity acknowledged that both Clinton and President Biden were doing better in the polls against Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now.
...
Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent support to 48.8 percent.
Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State.
...
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 11-16 showed Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in the state. But Republicans argue that poll undersampled Trump voters. Only 37 percent of the poll’s respondents said they voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Trump actually won 48.8 percent of the state’s vote four years ago.
“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy. They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm."
...
“If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning toward Trump"...
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Polls do not change this is the game they have been playing for decades; not sure if it is not mandated by laws or some tacit agreement with government...they is no way Harris is has polled low for year all of sudden is competitive...its all a mirage and propaganda to depress GOP turnout and increase DEM turnout if they think they are going to win...same with with Hillary Clinton 2016, remember the polls and forecast then 90% chance from every single one.
Exit polls after voting at one time used to very accurate. Now, the MSM does not do them anymore because it MAY show that the wrong candidate actually won. Therefore, making it hard to cheat if the final outcome is different than the exit poll.
There is no late breaking of . . . whoever, undecided, 3rd party whatever. The late changing of minds probably does not happen.
What happens is pollsters had the wrong turnout model.
Understand how polls are done. You don’t just make 1000 phone calls and add them up. You examine the responses to ensure the final sample you use is 53% women, 13% black, Dem/Rep/Ind whatever target you’re using.
You keep making phone calls until your total conforms to that model. Then and only then do you look at Harris/Trump choice.
So you can move polls by changing turnout model. Nobody in he electorate has to change their minds to get changed poll results.
Pollsters do this to achieve “representative” sample. Sampling does not describe the total population unless it is representative.
If they are wrong about what is representative, their results will be wrong.
The actual Teamsters that drive trucks are pretty hard working individuals. They are all blue collar. The backbone of MAGA supporters. The union leaders who exist off the dues of the members are the Kamala supporters.
Let's hope, their tears mean America is saved for four more years.
“Polling was created to sway opinion, not reflect it.”
Our medial certainly reflects that. They are trying to sway opinion with their polls.
Undercounting Trump? They’d better hope not. New York Times had Trump up 5 in Arizona, 4 in Georgia, and 2 in North Carolina. If they’re undercounting him, we’re talking landslide.
9 year olds can’t vote
Their internal polling must be disastrous for the Hill to publish an article like this.
Just depends on how heavy they oversample Dems.
When Kamala was installed as the Dem candidate, the Republicans under-estimated the power of the media to rehabilitate her image with the voters. The media masterfully constructed a facade around Harris, depicting her as a moderate “historic” candidate. The Republicans still haven’t broken through that facade.
Even the Teamsters poll undercounted Trump support by two points compared to to the final tally.
I think that is very possible it could be higher. Remember what all the polls were saying about Hillary winning back in 2016? They later found out that people were lying their arses off to the pollsters.
Polls can be useful to show trends.
If you use the identical sample template every time then the trend should be accurate—even if the total numbers are garbage.
That said—I would have no problem if public release of polling was banned for the six months prior to all elections.
Treat it like atomic secrets—insiders can learn about it but they go to prison if they talk about it.
You absolutely nailed it. Who could have ever thought they could make a 100% dizzy broad into the smartest woman on the planet? The Media Mafioso is pretty powerful.
The internals I have looked at aren’t so much undercounting Trump as much as GROSSLY overcounting for Harris.
Some of these polls that they have been touting showing Harris ahead have oversampled self identified democrats by more than 30% while undersampling both Independents and Republican voters by nearly as much.
And in some of them that go into more details have grossly oversampled some sub groups within the democratic leaning groups by astronomical numbers.
No poll ever has exactly perfect sampling representation, but when you have sampling errors that high you cannot fix it with weighting and have any trust in the outcomes.
There will certainly be those Trump voters who they can’t get in polls, but I don’t think you are as likely to see the “shy” Trump voters as much this cycle... though, if you are a democrat and run in deep blue circles, you certainly will likly never admit you plan to vote Trump for fear of being ostracised socially so there probably are some voters like that out there.. but I don’t think you are looking at the 2016 type issues.
Bingo! That was my point. Secondly, how can a pollster even verify data as truthful even over the phone?
I think it’s Psyops, All you have to is listen to her and you lose brain matter volia! Harris voter
You mean they aren’t supposed to vote. I saw a piece on the news in Phoenix a number of years ago. A six year old received a call to jury duty. They said they get the names for jury duty from voter roles. His father nervously laughed and said he wanted his son to grow up but not this fast. Aha Aha. Aha Aha.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.