Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump

The Hill ^ | 09/23/24 | Alexander Bolton

[FenwickBabbitt]

Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern.

After getting shocked by Hillary Clinton’s upset loss in 2016 and surprised by former President Trump’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2020, Democratic lawmakers are bracing themselves for another Election Night surprise.

...

One Democratic senator who requested anonymity acknowledged that both Clinton and President Biden were doing better in the polls against Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively, than Harris is performing right now.

...

Public polls had Trump trailing Biden by an average of 5 points, consistently, during the final two months of the 2020 presidential campaign. But he ended up losing the key state of Pennsylvania to Biden by only 1.2 percentage points — 50 percent support to 48.8 percent.

Likewise, public polls showed Trump trailing Clinton by between 3.5 points and 7 points in Pennsylvania during the final eight weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign. Yet Trump ended up winning Pennsylvania despite never leading Clinton in any of the public polling averages of the Keystone State.

...

A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania conducted Sept. 11-16 showed Harris with a 4-point lead over Trump in the state. But Republicans argue that poll undersampled Trump voters. Only 37 percent of the poll’s respondents said they voted for Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Trump actually won 48.8 percent of the state’s vote four years ago.

“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy. They’re trying to drive down enthusiasm."

...

“If you look at first-time voters who didn’t vote in ’20, they are leaning toward Trump"...

[FenwickBabbitt]

Smarter Democrats remember how far off the polls were the previous two presidential elections. Let’s do what we can to make sure the Democrats’ nightmare of a Trump victory comes true. Donate at:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/

And volunteer for various aspects of the ground game at:

https://trumpforce47.com/ (Official Trump campaign) https://www.tpaction.com/ (Charlie Kirk's Turning Point Action) https://earlyvoteaction.com/ (Scott Presler's group)

Take nothing for granted. Fight, fight, fight!

[Tom Tetroxide]

Like they did in 2016?

[FlingWingFlyer]

Tater Swuft’s Tater Tots to the rescue!

[HYPOCRACY]

They didn’t cheat hard enough then, so they overcompensated in 2020. Now they have to be a bit more restrained that more attention is being paid.

[mewzilla]

The only polls I’d trust are Trump’s internals.

Now I ask you, does Trump look worried about his polling...?

[Gaffer]

There’s 400 million dollars cash out there Que-Mala has to spend. Pollsters know this and they also know she’s not going to spend it on ‘bad news.’

[Diana in Wisconsin]

Hot Link for donations:

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/

[nwrep]

Why are so many senators that the article talked to (except Fetterman) demanding anonymity?

[Lockbox]

Democrats lie about the vote, we lie to the pollsters…. At least ours is legal!

[existentially_kuffer]

>>>Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump.

So Trump’s win will be higher? Hey pollsters it’s easy to lie on polls.

[ClearCase_guy]

“I used to think it was incompetence. Now I think it’s part of the strategy."

It's like an Elvis Costello song.

[adorno]

Democrats fear pollsters are undercounting Trump

I don't think their worries are about the under-counting in the polls.

They worry that Kamala doesn't even belong in the race and should never have been promoted to being the candidate.

Democrats need to find a series of forums and interviews and press conferences and debates, if they want to elevate her to being a true candidate. Too late for any of that, so, they're stuck lying about being worried.

[eyeamok]

Polling was created to sway opinion, not reflect it.

[jerod]

We need a second debate... LMFAO. Winners don’t need second debates... Losers do.

[mom.mom]

They need to fake the polls so their massive cheat will appear plausible.

[jerod]

There have been times when that ‘swaying’ has failed miserably.

I remember the 1980 presidential election... Reagan and Carter were ‘tied’ neck and neck, according to pollsters who on election day morning appeared on network shows explaining ‘how close it would be’, with electoral charts showing Reagan and Carter almost tied...

Reagan won with 489 electoral votes, to Carter’s 49 electoral votes... A blowout of astronomical proportions in comparison to recent Presidential elections.

[Dan in Wichita]

To me, the recent Teamsters membership poll is the most significant poll of this election cycle so far. Surely the Teamsters leaders can poll their membership with greater accuracy than any media national or state poll.

The Teamsters rank-and-file chose Trump over Harris by 60% to 34%. That's almost 2 to 1 in favor of Trump. The Teamsters union is 1+ million nationwide, and from all demographic groups (although probably more male than the general population?).

This is a major sign that could indicate a HUGE undercount of Trump support in the media polls.

[Dan in Wichita]

Same thing happened in 1984. Polls were showing the Reagan-Mondale race was tight. It was very late in the game before Reagan pulled away, according to the media polls.

[MAGA2017]

I suspect Trump is doing better than what the polls are saying. But I am concerned about illegals voting and the ability of Democrats to “find” ballots late in the night.

[going hot]

....and here I thought the kam was steaming ahead, kicking ass, taking names, supported by anyone who is anyone.

Who to believe?

These polls be like willows in the wind.