These pollsters were right in 2016 and 2020 — and they think Harris has already lost her mojo

NY Post ^ | 09/03/2024 | A.G. Gancarski

[ChicagoConservative27]

Most polls show Vice President Kamala Harris leading in the swing states that will decide the election. But two Southern state pollsters are bucking the trend — and they’ve got former President Donald Trump up big.

The polling by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar in seven battleground states finds Trump on a path to 296 electoral votes — suggesting that Harris has already lost her momentum.

Matt Towery of Georgia-based InsiderAdvantage found Trump ahead in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina (and down by 0.4% only in Georgia).

He noted that both he and Robert Calahy of Trafalgar (which handled Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) were both in the top three pollsters in the ‘16 and ‘20 cycles because their methodology allows them to “pick up some Trump vote that some of the other pollsters might not be able to get.”

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TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2016; 2020; harris; poll; polls; pollsters

[ChicagoConservative27]

A lady at work who is in her 50s and grew up in Ukraine during soviet times said she has no idea how anybody can vote for kneepads. She said she already lived communism and does not want to again

[Leep]

Has she cackled her way into obscurity?

[tennmountainman]

Harris never had any MOJO. And never will.

[brownsfan]

“She said she already lived communism and does not want to again”

Lots of American born citizens have no such frame of reference or education. Those Americans want communism, very much.

[ChicagoConservative27]

You are so right. The lady at work saw the Reagan movie and it touched her heart because Reagan was why she moved to the USA.

[ClearCase_guy]

[G Larry]

Polling in 2020 should not have been predictive because they won by massive cheating, for which you can not poll.

[Gay State Conservative]

In both 2016 and 2020 the polls...the major ones at least...underestimated DJT by two or three points. If the same is true this year that means that DJT is guaranteed at least 300EVs.

But then there *is* the fraud factor.

[Gay State Conservative]

It wasn’t really *massive* cheating. It was a few thousand votes in about a dozen counties in three or four states. However,the *consequences* were certainly massive.

[Sacajaweau]

She opens her mouth....and nothing comes out. Her voice and those flailing hands drive me nuts...You don't hear anything...they are such a distraction.

And I'm still trying to figure out why so many women are for killing babies....when the vast majority wouldn't even consider it. Why cast a vote for an abortion for someone else?? It's weird.

[imabadboy99]

I’m not sure how to achieve it, but winning over some of the single female / cat lady vote would put Trump +10. It’s his only weak demographic. All he has to do is cut the margin of loss in that demo - he doesn’t have to win them.

[HamiltonJay]

She never had any MOJO... there have never been a more fake and astroturfed candidate that Kamala... Not ever Potato Joe nor Fauxbama were as bad as this fustercluck.

Not only this, but the more I see of this woman, particularly unscripted, the more it is obvious something just isn’t right with her.. I know there are rumors she’s an alcoholic, and I’m not sure if that’s what wrong with her or not, but the more I see of her, its not hard to understand why people come to that conclusion.

There is just something way way way off with her, and I’m not saying that because I disagree with her politically, I say it because her behavior and speech patterns and constant word salad are not that of a normal person at all.

[rrrod]

I had a Russian woman tell me in some cases newer immigrants were more patriotic than others. She has a valid point but of course she came here legally.

[Bon of Babble]

I think she’s peaked and at this point the media is putting lipstick on a pig.

[Reeses]

In 2016, the LA Times ran a novel poll where they polled the exact same people over time. It foretold a Trump win, and nobody at the time could believe it. Despite nailing it, we haven’t heard from that LA Times poll ever again.

[kvanbrunt2]

And I’m still trying to figure out why so many women are for killing babies....when the vast majority wouldn’t even consider it. Why cast a vote for an abortion for someone else?? It’s weird.>>. The whole republican leadership in PA are commie baby killers. men included. And many of the women i suspect either got abortions their husbands didn’t know about or may want to in the future. ANd yet they vote conservative at the local level.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Most polls lie to achieve their desired end result.

[Jeff Vader]

I remember that as well

[Lizavetta]

She often sounds like she’s stoned, in my opinion.

[goodolemr]

Her VP pick was bad, and the Dem convention was a big nothing, and the CNN interview was panned by everyone. and strangely, tactically a poor idea, she got into a back and forth with those gold star families (you can not win a debate on those terms).