The US economy will grind to a halt in the 2nd half of 2023 and the following year won't be much better, BofA says as it slashes its growth forecast

business insider via yahoo ^ | June 20, 2022 | Brian Evans

[RomanSoldier19]

Bank of America has sounded the alarm on the US economy, predicting growth will stall next year and that the likelihood of a recession will surge.

In a note published on Friday — two days after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points — analysts said the Fed was too slow to aggressively tackle inflation, which is running at a 40-year high, and abruptly scrambling to get on top of it.

Now the bank sees GDP growth slowing to nearly zero by the second half of 2023 because of the influence of tighter financial conditions. While the risk of recession this year is low, Bank of America sees a 40% probability starting next year. And 2024 isn't looking much better, as analysts see only "a modest rebound" by then.

"Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up," the note said.

Despite the Fed's more hawkish stance, the bank doesn't see inflation cooling enough to get down to the central bank's 2% target. Instead, it will persist around 3%, it said. While supply problems and demand for goods will ease, inflation expectations are anchoring at higher levels and wage pressures will likely be tough to reverse.

But the Fed is perhaps finally catching up to properly attack inflation, Bank of America said, and Wednesday's rate hike was a strong step in the right direction.

[RomanSoldier19]

[ProtectOurFreedom]

“they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up,”

Anybody with two brain cells to rub together knew this was going to happen. Money was free for over a decade and then they gave away $5 trillion for no good reason. That $5 trillion didn’t go into investment to improve productivity one iota — it just paid people to stay home after the needless shutdown of the country.

[TexasFreeper2009]

well... on the plus side, that will make is much easier to remove Resident Biden.

[frank ballenger]

Dan Bongino today had about three minutes of soundbites of the WH people firmly and resolutely saying there is no coming recession, the inflation is transitory, inflation is actually helping us all, no one is feeling effects of inflation and the economy is booming and lifting all economic boats.

Part of his monologue on lies told by the Dems. Good sound collage today.

Too bad the dimwitted American voters (Dems and “undecided”) seem to say “Hey, that sounds good. I believe it. Trump didn’t say it.”

[SaveFerris]

(second half of 2023)

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that’s about a year too late.

I’m a branch manager. 😜😜😜

🐒🐒🐒

[laplata]

You’re saying by this fall?

[Don Corleone]

There will be hungry people out there. Hide your pets. (A la Venezuela)

[Pollard]

Now the bank sees GDP growth slowing to nearly zero by the second half of 2023 because of the influence of tighter financial conditions. While the risk of recession this year is low, Bank of America sees a 40% probability starting next year.

So what is the official definition of recession? I would imagine it depends on your net worth and/or income. (or whether or not you're a bank)

I've been trying to off load some used items I don't need anymore but no one is buying. Tried selling a 1950 chevy truck in need of restoration. Would have sold for $3-4000 a few years ago and people were buying every single one at prices like that. Top bid on ebay was $600. Like new tiller that's $814 at Home Depot right now. Maybe 10 hours of use, no paint worn off tines, 2 years left on 5 year warranty, listed on craigslist for two months. Lowered it from $500 to $400, no bites. Like the old truck, would have sold in a heart beat 3 years ago.

About the only used item selling right now is used cars that get 30mpg.

This is a recession for a lot of people. I guess it will be a recession for BofA when people can no longer run up their credit or can no longer make payments on their loans.

[SaveFerris]

Wouldn’t surprise me given the record inflation so far this year

Time will tell.

I’m about to be looking for a new job

So all of this is especially not good for me

[laplata]

My thoughts and prayers go out for you.

God bless us all.

[griswold3]

What politician would want to be in charge when TSHTF?
The way the Republicans are legislating now, they’re out! Nothing worse than to be stabbed in the back.

[palmer]

Tried selling a 1950 chevy truck in need of restoration. Would have sold for $3-4000 a few years ago and people were buying every single one at prices like that. Top bid on ebay was $600

Does the tarp come with it?

[lightman]

But we were kept safe from the CCP-cooties and there were no more “mean tweets”!

/s

[Pollard]

It was a hot item for years. They would stick the cab and bed on an S-10 frame and were getting $10,000-$30,000.00

Some kept the old truck patina finish but all had new rubber seals for doors, new glass, possibly a new grill, interior repainted and with new gauges, nice seats etc. A few kept the stock S-10 4.3 liter and some were upgraded with a 4.8l, 5.3l or 6.0l engine from a mid 2000s full size chevy truck or an old school SBC 350 with 4bbl.

Might be beyond you unless you’re a gearhead.

[RomanSoldier19]

This is the fancy definition.

A “technical recession” is when an economy have two negative quarters of GDP, but it is due mainly to slowing growth or an isolated event rather than a major underlying cause.

Technical recessions are usually short in duration and mild in severity. Technical Recession - Chrome IAS chromeias.com/technical-recession/ chromeias.com/technical-recession/ The old adage is if your neighbor looses their job its a recession, and if you loose your job, its a depression

good luck

[Sequoyah101]

Agree most likely. See it by Fall, just a gut feel based on 60+ adult years.

Can’t see how it can be avoided.

Recession is necessary to reset 5 trillion printed dollars just some if enough. Like putting a patient in a coma to save him.

[SaveFerris]

Too many crazy jumps this year

And here comes interest rate hikes

And my employer ramping up the covid19 again 🥴

I’m outta there, Lord willing

And very soon I hope

[Spktyr]

That’s happened to almost all the 50-70s cars. Boomermobiles that went for six digits now are floating around low fives. Some have declined into fours. The primary customer base for those is aging out of the market or just plain *dying*.

Meanwhile, 80s and 90s imports are hitting six digits...

[Sequoyah101]

Im seeing stupid covid shut down in our future again.

That will signal the true crack of doom.

Wish i had som sideline cash. Time is not yet i’m afraid

This long hot dry summer just reinforces my gloom.

[palmer]

Thanks for the info. No, not a gearhead although I watched a gearhead episode when I was staying at a hotel a while back. The truck that they completely rebuilt fetched a nice price at the auction, but that was prepandemic.